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固收专题:下半年政府债供给怎么看?
China Post Securities· 2025-07-10 02:34
证券研究报告:固定收益报告 发布时间:2025-07-10 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《策略选择"骑虎难下"?——流动 性周报 20250706》 - 2025.07.07 固收专题 下半年政府债供给怎么看? ⚫ 国债发行节奏整体偏快,下半年供给压力趋于缓和 上半年普通国债发行 6.83 万亿,净融资 2.53 万亿,同比多增 3438 亿,发行期数减少、单期规模增加;特别国债发行 10550 亿,净 融资 8550 亿,同比多增 6050 亿,集中到期情况下,发行进度仍靠前。 我们估算下半年国债约有 7.78 万亿待发,预计实现净融资 3.19 万亿,下半年供给压力有望缓和。其中,普通国债下半年约有 6.94 万 亿待发,预计节奏将相对平稳。特别国债有 7450 亿待发,单期规模 或有所增加。综合来看,全部国债的发行高峰或集中于 7-9 月,单月 发行 1.3-1.5 万亿。净融资高峰有较大概率出现在 8、9、11 月。 ⚫ 化债主线切换至稳增长,下半年地方债供给料将加速 上半年地方新增一 ...
沿着债市定价体系寻找机会,30年国债ETF博时(511130)连续3天净流入,成交额已超3亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 02:22
30年国债ETF博时紧密跟踪上证30年期国债指数,上证30年期国债指数从上海证券交易所上市的国债中,选取符合中国金融期货交易所30年期国债期货近月 合约可交割条件的债券作为指数样本,以反映沪市相应期限国债的整体表现。 规模方面,30年国债ETF博时最新规模达68.12亿元,创近1月新高。 份额方面,30年国债ETF博时最新份额达6098.97万份,创近1月新高。 从资金净流入方面来看,30年国债ETF博时近3天获得连续资金净流入,最高单日获得5359.25万元净流入,合计"吸金"9274.49万元,日均净流入达3091.50万 元。 数据显示,杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债ETF博时最新融资买入额达7891.98万元,最新融资余额达5438.72万元。 截至5月23日,30年国债ETF博时近1年净值上涨14.97%,指数债券型基金排名3/378,居于前0.79%。从收益能力看,截至2025年5月23日,30年国债ETF博时 自成立以来,最高单月回报为5.35%,最长连涨月数为4个月,最长连涨涨幅为10.58%,涨跌月数比为9/4,上涨月份平均收益率为2.20%,月盈利百分比为 69.23%,月盈利概率为71. ...
沿着债市定价体系找机会
HTSC· 2025-05-25 11:09
证券研究报告 固收 沿着债市定价体系找机会 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 25 日│中国内地 利率周报 研究员 张继强 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 吴宇航 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 仇文竹 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 欧阳琳 SAC No. S0570123070159 ouyanglin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 朱逸敏 SAC No. S0570124070133 zhuyimin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 与信贷等广谱利率对比:债市定价基本合理 债券与存贷款之间会通过比价效应和机构行为传导。但本次 LPR 下调后, 一些银行通过减少加点幅度,仍维持新增按揭贷款 3%的原利率。如果 3% 是房贷利率的 ...
国新办新闻发布会点评:货币宽松落地,债市定价权重趋向基本面
Dongxing Securities· 2025-05-08 02:45
| 分析师 | 林瑾璐 电话:021-25102905 邮箱:linjl@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号:S1480519070002 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 田馨宇 电话:010-66554013 邮箱:tianxy@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号:S1480521070003 | 投资摘要: 事件:5 月 7 日,国新办举行新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况,会上央行、金融监管总局、 证监会提出具体政策措施。 货币宽松落地,债市定价权重趋向基本面 2025 年 5 月 8 日 固定收益 点评报告 | ——国新办新闻发布会点评 | | --- | 固 定 收 益 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 P2 东兴证券固定收益报告 关于降息,主要包括三个方面的内容。①下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点,从 1.5%下调到 1.4%,经过市场化的利率传导,预计 将带动贷款市场报价利率(LPR)随之下行 0.1 个百分点。中国人民银行还将通过利率自律机制引导商业银行相 ...
债市定价权重向基本面倾斜,30年国债ETF(511090)上涨0.22%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 02:34
30年国债ETF紧密跟踪中债-30年期国债指数(总值)财富指数,中债-30年期国债指数隶属于中债总指数 族系,该指数成分券由在境内公开发行上市流通的发行期限为30年且待偿期25-30年(包含25年和30 年)的记账式国债组成(不包含特别国债),可作为投资该类债券的业绩比较基准和标的指数。 业内人士认为,是较好的组合管理工具,不管用于平衡组合久期还是对冲权益仓位,其配置价值、交易 价值都较为突出。首先,30年期国债ETF交易门槛低,个人投资者可以直接购买,最小交易单位为100 份,约1万元。其次,交易效率高,买卖即时成交,并可实现T+0日内回转交易。最后,有多家做市商 提供流动性,买卖即时成交,不缺对手盘,流动性较为充裕。 风险提示:本产品由鹏扬基金管理有限公司发行与管理,销售机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理 责任。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产,但不保证基金一定盈利,也 不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现,本公司管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成对本基 金业绩表现的预示和保证。投资者在投资基金前应认真阅读基金合同、招募说明书和基金产品资料概要 等基金法律文件,全面认识基 ...
5月债市调研问卷点评:长债偏好有所提升
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 11:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of April and looking forward to May, investors' preference for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds has increased, while their attention to credit products has decreased month - on - month, but there may be a characteristic of "being bullish but not taking action" [1][10]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of April, six mainstream expectations of investors for the May bond market are summarized: preference for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds has increased significantly; Trump's tariff policy may promote the early implementation of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cut policies, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue; the current expectation of monetary easing is still strong, with most investors expecting an RRR cut in May - June and an interest rate cut more likely in the third quarter; most investors believe that the bond market will strengthen overall in May, and the probability of a bull - flattening curve is high; most investors' judgments on the operating ranges of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields are narrow, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile; in terms of operations, most investors are neutral in practice and prefer to keep their positions basically stable, possibly showing "being bullish but not taking action" [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Survey Background - A bond market questionnaire "What to expect from the May bond market?" was released on April 25, 2025, targeting the main concerns of the May 2025 bond market. As of 24:00 on April 27, a total of 331 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional investors such as bank self - operation, securities firm self - operation, public funds/special accounts, and individual investors [8]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: 48% of investors think the lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond rate is below 1.60%, and 45% think it is between 1.60% - 1.70% (inclusive). 76% of investors believe the upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may be within 1.80%, and 11% think it may be between 1.80% - 1.85% (inclusive). Most investors expect the bond market in May to trade around the tariff policy, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate is unlikely to return to the previous high in April [11]. - **30 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: 41% of investors think the lower limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond operating range in May will be less than 1.8%, and 43% think it is between 1.80% - 1.85% (inclusive). 53% of investors believe the upper limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond operating range in May is between 1.90% - 2.00% (inclusive), and 31% think it is within 1.90%. The overall bond market in May may be volatile and slightly stronger [14]. 3.3 Expectations for the Second - Quarter Economic Trend - 62% of investors think the economic trend in the second quarter will be "both year - on - year and month - on - month weakening", a significant increase compared with the April questionnaire results. 22% of investors think it will show the characteristic of "year - on - year recovery but month - on - month weaker than the seasonal level". 10% of investors think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month in line with the seasonal level", and 5% think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month exceeding the seasonal level", a significant decrease compared with the April questionnaire results. The deviation between the economic fundamental expectation and the reality needs a certain verification period [19]. 3.4 Expectations for RRR and Interest Rate Cuts - **RRR Cut**: 66% of investors think an RRR cut will occur in May - June, and 17% think it will be in the third quarter. Investors have a high expectation for an RRR cut and expect it to happen earlier [21]. - **Interest Rate Cut**: 49% of investors think an interest rate cut will occur in the third quarter, 31% think it will be in May - June. 12% of investors think there will be no interest rate cut in 2025. Investors' expectation for an interest rate cut has further strengthened, and the proportion of those who think there will be no interest rate cut in 2025 has decreased significantly [21]. 3.5 Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy on the Bond Market - 46% of investors think it may promote the early implementation of RRR and interest rate cut policies, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue. 27% think the subsequent focus will be on the expectation of tariff policy cooling, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended. 15% think it may trigger non - US countries to impose tariffs on China, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue. 12% think it may strengthen the policy - makers' determination to stabilize the capital market, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended. Overall, investors generally think the subsequent impact of Trump's tariff policy on the bond market is still positive [23]. 3.6 Expectations for the May Bond Market行情 - 27% of investors think the interest rate curve will strengthen overall and show a bull - flattening trend in May. 26% think it will strengthen overall and show a bull - steepening trend. 16% think it is difficult to judge the trend of the interest rate curve in May. 10% think the short - end of the interest rate curve will be strong and the long - end will be weak, and 10% think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. Overall, more investors are optimistic about the May bond market, but there is some divergence between the expectations of a bull - flattening and a bull - steepening curve [25]. 3.7 Bond Market Operation Suggestions - 49% of investors think they should keep their positions basically stable. 23% think they should hold cash and wait, and then add positions after the market回调 to the expected level. 13% think they can start adding positions. 11% think they should take appropriate profits and reduce positions. 4% think they should reduce the duration to control risks. Most investors are neutral in practice, and keeping positions stable is the mainstream view [29]. 3.8 Preferred Bond Varieties in May - 18% and 17% of investors think the opportunities for long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds are relatively certain. 15%, 10%, and 10% of investors are more optimistic about medium - short - term interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and local government bonds respectively. About 9% of investors prefer medium - low - grade urban investment bonds. Investors have a higher preference for interest - rate products such as interest - rate bonds, certificates of deposit, and government bonds, and their preference for credit products has decreased month - on - month. The preferred varieties have shifted from the short - end to the long - end and ultra - long - end [32]. 3.9 Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in May - 31% of investors think the central bank's monetary policy attitude and the trend of the capital market are still the main pricing logics for the May bond market. 16% and 15% of investors think fiscal stimulus, government bond issuance, and fundamental data such as real estate and PMI are the main pricing logics. 13% of investors think the implementation of the US tariff policy is the main pricing logic. The central bank's monetary policy attitude and the trend of the capital market are still the most concerned factors for investors [34].