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纸浆数据日报-20260327
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 07:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The weak pattern of the pulp futures fundamentals continues. The upside space for short - term position reduction is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pulp Futures and Spot Prices - On March 26, 2026, for pulp futures, SP2701 had a price of 5492 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 1.05% and a weekly -环比 of 0.66%; SP2609 was 5242 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 1.43% and a weekly -环比 of 0.38%; SP2605 was 5156 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of - 1.30% and a weekly -环比 of 1.02% [5]. - For spot prices, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5200 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 2.97%; coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5050 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 3.06%; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton, with a daily -环比 of 0.00% and a weekly -环比 of 1.10% [5]. Pulp Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, with a month -环比 of - 4.23%, and its import cost was 5559 yuan/ton, with a month -环比 of - 4.19%. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Star was 620 dollars/ton, with a month -环比 of 3.33%, and its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, with a month -环比 of 3.30%. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, with a month -环比 of 0.00%, and its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, with a month -环比 of 0.00% [5]. Pulp Supply - side Data - In February 2026, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 58.02 tons, a month -环比 decrease of 30.86% compared to January; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 147.13 tons, a month -环比 decrease of 2.94% [5]. - The shipment volume of pulp to China in January 2026 was 170 thousand tons, a decrease of 19.80% [5]. - On March 26, 2026, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 26.2 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 25.3 tons [5]. Pulp Inventory - side Data - As of March 26, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 239.5 tons, an increase of 9.8 tons from the previous period, a 4.3% increase [5]. - The inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 18.6 tons [5]. Pulp Demand - side Data - On March 26, 2026, the production of double - offset paper was 21.60 tons, copper - plate paper was 8.20 tons, tissue paper was 31.21 tons, and white cardboard was 38.50 tons [5]. - The demand side of pulp has been stable recently. The price of finished paper is stable, and the production has increased this week. The price increase letters issued by paper mills are expected to be difficult to implement [5].
纸浆数据日报-20260319
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-19 06:53
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Pulp futures have significantly increased positions and declined. The main reason is the weak current situation leading to the expectation of further decline in foreign market quotes. The bearish sentiment has not been fully released, so short - term bottom - fishing is not recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures prices: SP2701 is 5392 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.52% and a weekly decline of 1.75%; SP2609 is 5162 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.69% and a weekly decline of 2.93%; SP2605 is 5040 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.94% and a weekly decline of 4.18% [5]. - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star is 5050 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.94% and a weekly decline of 5.61%; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle is 4900 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.00% and a weekly decline of 4.85%; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish is 4550 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decline of 1.09% [5]. - Foreign market quotes: Chilean Silver Star is 710 dollars/ton, Chilean Star is 600 dollars/ton, and Chilean Venus is 620 dollars/ton, all with no monthly change [5]. - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star is 5802 yuan/ton, Chilean Star is 4911 yuan/ton, and Chilean Venus is 5073 yuan/ton, all with no monthly change [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - Import volume: In December 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 72.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.31% compared to November; broad - leaf pulp import volume was 176.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.40% [5]. - Shipment volume to China: In January 2026, the shipment volume of pulp to China was 170 thousand tons, a decline of 19.80% [5]. - Domestic production: On March 12, 2026, broad - leaf pulp domestic production was 23.8 tons, and chemimechanical pulp domestic production was 24.5 tons [5]. - Port inventory: As of March 12, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 237.3 tons, a decrease of 3.5 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 1.5% [5]. - Futures delivery warehouse inventory: As of March 12, 2026, it was 18.0 tons [5]. - Finished paper production: On March 12, 2026, double - offset paper production was 20.10 tons, coated paper production was 7.80 tons, tissue paper production was 30.07 tons, and cardboard production was 33.40 tons [5]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Chilean Arauco's March coniferous pulp offer is 710 dollars/ton, unchanged; broad - leaf pulp Star is quoted at 620 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus is quoted at 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - Demand: The demand side of pulp has been stable recently. Finished paper prices are stable, and production has increased this week. The price increase letters issued by paper mills are expected to be difficult to implement [5].
纸浆数据日报-20260316
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 07:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp are weak, with "Golden March and Silver April" failing to effectively boost papermaking demand. However, the chemical price increase due to the US - Iran war has a driving effect on the pulp futures market, so the overall situation is seen as oscillating [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On March 13, 2026, SP2701 futures price was 5526 yuan/ton, up 0.51% day - on - day and 0.11% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5330 yuan/ton, up 0.53% day - on - day and down 0.71% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5272 yuan/ton, up 0.38% day - on - day and down 0.94% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5300 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.98% week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4600 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week [5] - **External Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's external quote was 710 dollars/ton, unchanged; its import cost was 5802 yuan/ton, unchanged. Chilean Star's external quote was 600 dollars/ton, unchanged; its import cost was 4911 yuan/ton, unchanged. Chilean Venus's external quote was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged; its import cost was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In November 2025, coniferous pulp import volume was 72.5 tons, and in December 2025, it was 77.8 tons, up 7.31% month - on - month. In December 2025, broadleaf pulp import volume was 176.5 tons, and in the subsequent period, it was 135.2 tons, down 23.40% [5] - **Domestic Production Volume**: On March 12, 2026, broadleaf pulp domestic production volume was 23.8 tons; chemical mechanical pulp was 24.5 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of March 12, 2026, pulp port inventory was 237.3 tons, down 3.5 tons from the previous period, a 1.5% decline. Futures delivery warehouse inventory was 18.0 tons [5] - **Finished Paper Production Volume**: On March 12, 2026, double - offset paper production volume was 20.10 tons; coated paper was 7.80 tons; daily production of tissue paper was 30.07 tons (with another value of 33.40 tons mentioned) [5] Supply - Demand and Strategy - **Supply**: Chilean Arauco's March coniferous pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Star's quote was 620 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus's quote was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Demand**: Pulp demand has been stable recently, finished paper prices are stable, and production volume increased this week. Price - increase letters issued by paper mills are expected to be difficult to implement [5] - **Strategy**: This week, pulp futures warrants increased significantly, and port inventory, especially coniferous pulp, is still at an absolute high. Overall, the situation is seen as oscillating [5]
纸浆周报:低位反弹,关注盘面企稳情况-20250511
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-11 10:01
Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The international pulp mills' latest round of price cuts for imported hardwood pulp and the inventory build - up at European ports create short - term negative impacts on the market. Domestically, the prices of base paper are weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery progress. A rebound in the downstream operating load rate may boost industry expectations to some extent. There is also support from the cost side below. It is advisable to monitor the stabilization of the market and wait for long - entry opportunities [32]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, rebounded from a low level [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of May 8, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,960 yuan/ton, down 2.55% from the previous week before the holiday, with the decline rate widening by 1.59 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,175 yuan/ton, down 3.45% from the previous week before the holiday, with the decline rate widening by 1.34 percentage points. The improvement in downstream demand was poor. Base paper enterprises mainly made purchases at low prices, the shipment speed slowed down, and the pulp market transactions were difficult to increase [13]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In March 2025, China imported 3.249 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 2.0042 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 616.87 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to March increased by 5% and 4.9% respectively compared to the same period last year. In March 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 797,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.47%. The import volume of hardwood pulp in March was 1.4699 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.47% and a year - on - year increase of 22.19% [16]. - **Port Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 1.9731 million tons, down 3.33% from the previous week, with the decline rate widening by 0.63 percentage points compared to the previous week [18]. - **European Inventory in March**: According to Europulp data, in March 2025, the total inventory at European ports increased by 7.60% month - on - month and 25.96% compared to March 2024. Only the inventory at German ports decreased by 9.30% month - on - month. Overall, the inventory at most European ports increased month - on - month, driving the total inventory at European ports to increase in March [21]. 3. Future Outlook - Arauco of Chile adjusted its pulp export quotes for April 2025. The price of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was lowered by 55 US dollars/ton to 770 US dollars/ton, the price of natural pulp (Venus) was lowered by 40 US dollars/ton to 650 US dollars/ton, and the price of hardwood pulp (Star) was lowered by 70 US dollars/ton to 560 US dollars/ton, a significant reduction compared to the previous round of quotes. Considering the foreign inventory situation, the overall inventory at European ports increased in March 2025. The price cuts of imported hardwood pulp by international pulp mills and the inventory build - up at European ports create short - term negative impacts on the market. Domestically, the prices of base paper are weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery progress. A rebound in the downstream operating load rate may boost industry expectations to some extent. There is also support from the cost side below. It is advisable to monitor the stabilization of the market and wait for long - entry opportunities [32].