Trade Data Overview - In September 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 4.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.0% year-on-year[9] - Exports amounted to 2.34 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4%, while imports were 1.7 trillion yuan, up by 7.5%[9] - The trade surplus stood at 645.47 billion yuan, with a corresponding surplus of 90.447 billion USD[9][20] Export Performance - Exports to the US showed signs of recovery, with a significant narrowing of the decline compared to August[12] - Exports to the EU increased, while those to ASEAN experienced a high-level decline, maintaining an export growth rate of around 15%[10][24] - Labor-intensive products, excluding toys, saw a rebound, and the export growth rate for automobiles remained at 10%[10][15] Import Dynamics - Import growth rebounded significantly, with most major imported goods, except copper, showing an increase in growth rates[17] - The import value of electromechanical products reached a new high for the year, indicating strong demand[17][24] Trade Resilience - The strong rebound in trade data reflects China's resilience in foreign trade amid external uncertainties, particularly in light of recent tariff policies[4][26] - The Chinese manufacturing sector's dominant position in the global economy is a key factor in this resilience[4][26] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in the international financial landscape, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[5][27]

跨境电商近况及关税解读更新 20250902 摘要 Q&A 美国巡回法法院对特朗普加征关税的判决有何影响？未来可能的走向是什么？ 美国巡回法法院禁止特朗普以过去的法案基准加征过多关税，这反映了美国三 权分立制度中行政权受到国会立法权和联邦法院司法权的制约。法院认为，特 朗普以贸易利差为基础加征关税不构成特别威胁，并强调征税权属于国会，总 统无法绕过国会进行加征关税。政府将上诉至最高法院，缓冲期设定在 10 月 14 日，但最终判决可能时间更长。在二审裁定之前，现行关税政策格局不会有 大的改变，美国海关已基本完成 5,000 亿美元的关税征收。如果裁定失败，之 前的一些政策可能被认为违宪，但政府仍可通过其他贸易保护措施应对；若裁 定通过，则现行政策延续。 转口贸易集中在越南和墨西哥，越南以纺织品和 3C 配件为主，墨西哥 以汽车和家电为主。越南转口贸易面临原产地证明监管加强和成本上升 的挑战。 4 月底至 6 月中国出口到美国商品终端售价平均提价 20%，美区销量下 滑 25%-30%。7 月后市场逐渐恢复，Temu 承接流量广告，但未完全 弥补之前负增长。 从第一次裁决到第二次裁决的发展过程是怎样的？ 第一次 ...