业内人士指出，纵观前11个月，辽宁外贸在承压前行中，出口引擎强劲、结构更优、伙伴多元，展现了 强大的发展韧性与潜力。这份来之不易的成绩单，是全省上下攻坚克难、奋力开拓的成果，也意味着辽 宁在打造对外开放新前沿的道路上步伐坚定，前景可期。 国际市场"朋友圈"在巩固中拓展。东盟继续稳居辽宁第一大贸易伙伴位置，双边贸易额增长23.2%，经 贸合作持续深化。在巩固与欧盟、韩国等传统市场往来的同时，辽宁积极开拓新兴市场，对拉丁美洲、 非洲的进出口分别增长8.6%和40.6%，其中对非洲贸易的迅猛增长尤为显著，展现出巨大的合作潜力。 "辽宁制造"在国际市场上的竞争力稳步提升。出口商品中，技术含量较高的机电产品占据了半壁江山， 出口额同比增长9.3%，其中电工器材、汽车零配件等成为重要增长点。传统优势产品同样表现稳健， 劳动密集型产品和农产品出口分别同比增长11.2%和9.2%，在稳定份额中实现了新的增长。 进口方面，前11个月进口额3105.9亿元。虽然部分资源性产品进口有所调整，但民生消费类产品进口需 求旺盛，特别是水产品进口同比增长21.2%，反映了内需市场的活跃。 沈阳海关最新统计数据显示，今年前11个月，全省外贸 ...

Economic Overview - The Chinese economy in 2025 shows a clear trend of strong external demand and export growth, while internal demand remains weak, particularly in real estate and fixed asset investment, leading to continued pressure on consumption [1][3] Internal vs External Demand - The balance between internal and external demand is crucial for determining the economic direction, with final consumption contributing 2.8 percentage points to GDP, capital formation contributing 0.9 percentage points, and net exports contributing 1.5 percentage points [2] Employment and Consumer Sentiment - A significant portion of the population feels pessimistic about employment, with 57.4% of respondents in a survey expressing concerns about job prospects, leading to a low consumer sentiment index of 25.8 [4] - Retail sales growth remains weak, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.3% in November, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and a shift in consumer behavior towards saving rather than spending [4] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market shows a divergence between first-tier cities, which have seen relatively stable prices, and lower-tier cities, which have experienced significant declines. However, by late 2025, this divergence is expected to narrow [5] - New home and second-hand home prices in major cities have declined, with notable drops in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, heavily influenced by a 15.9% drop in real estate investment. Private investment has also declined by 5.3% [13] - Government and state-owned enterprise investments are becoming the primary drivers of new investments, with social financing growing by 8.5% year-on-year [13] Export Performance - Exports are experiencing a structural transformation, with machinery and electronics exports accounting for 60.9% of total exports, growing by 8.8%, while labor-intensive product exports have decreased [11] - Trade with the U.S. has declined by 16.9%, while trade with ASEAN countries has increased by 8.5%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [12] Sectoral Disparities - New industries supported by national policies are showing stable income and development expectations, but their ability to create jobs is limited due to automation [6] - Traditional sectors, such as new energy vehicles, are facing challenges from price wars, limiting their ability to provide substantial employment opportunities [7] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is characterized by a decline in large durable goods, while basic and discretionary spending remains stable but under price pressure [10] - The trend of "emotional consumption" is evident, with increased travel and entertainment participation but lower average spending per outing [10] Government Debt and Real Estate Risks - The real estate sector faces significant risks, including asset-liability risks from falling prices and systemic pressures on local finances due to shrinking land revenue [15] - Government debt is increasing, with a year-on-year growth of 18.8%, while public budget revenues are only growing by 0.8%, indicating ongoing fiscal pressures [16]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 17, 2025 - Report Title: Economic Data Review for November 2025 1. Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Most economic indicators continued to weaken in November. Consumption and investment faced significant pressure, and the GDP growth rate in Q4 might slow down compared to Q3. The core contradiction in the current economic operation is the co - existence of the drag from the adjustment of old driving forces and the growth of new driving forces. Real - estate downturn and cautious consumer behavior are short - term constraints, while policy support and industrial upgrading are key supports [2]. - In December, social retail sales still face a high - base pressure from the +3.7% year - on - year growth in December 2024, and the effect of the withdrawal of national subsidies may continue to show. In terms of fixed - asset investment, the decline in real - estate investment has widened, infrastructure investment may be under great fiscal constraint pressure, and only manufacturing upgrading provides support [2]. - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the role of domestic demand, strengthened the main position of enterprise innovation, and added the statement of "increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment" in macro - policies. Attention should be paid to the implementation effect of growth - stabilization policies and the supporting role of high - quality development and new productive forces on the economy [2]. - In 2026, the bond market may perform better than expected. Since the second half of the year, the bond market has often deviated from the fundamentals and is dominated by institutional behavior. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a 10BP cut likely in Q1. In the long - term, the 30 - year treasury bond yield is expected to fall below 2% [3]. 3. Summary by Category Consumption - In November, the growth rate of social retail sales continued to decline. The total retail sales of consumer goods in November was 4.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%, 1.6 percentage points lower than the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate has declined for six consecutive months, reaching the lowest single - month level since 2023. From January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year - on - year, 0.3 percentage points lower than from January to October [2]. - The policy to expand service consumption continued to be implemented, and service retail sales continued to grow rapidly. From January to November, the retail sales of cultural, sports, and leisure services continued to grow at a double - digit rate. The national box office revenue increased by 19.5% year - on - year, and the number of moviegoers increased by 20.3% year - on - year [2]. - The year - on - year growth rate of most retail sales of national - subsidy - related categories continued to slow down. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of above - quota household appliances and audio - visual equipment dropped significantly to - 19.4%, 4.8 percentage points lower than in October. The year - on - year retail sales of above - quota furniture decreased by 3.8%, 13.4 percentage points lower than in October [2]. Fixed - Asset Investment - The pressure on fixed - asset investment continued to increase. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment has been weakening for eight consecutive months, with negative growth for three consecutive months and an accelerating decline. The decline in real - estate development investment has widened for nine consecutive months. From January to November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year [2]. - From January to November, infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real - estate development investment decreased by 1.1%, increased by 1.9%, and decreased by 15.9% year - on - year respectively, 1.0, 0.8, and 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous period. Infrastructure investment has had negative cumulative year - on - year growth for two consecutive months [2]. - Private investment has had negative cumulative year - on - year growth for six consecutive months. From January to November, the year - on - year decline widened to - 5.3%, 0.8 percentage points lower than from January to October [2]. Foreign Trade - The overall growth rate of imports and exports rebounded significantly. In November, the total value of imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, a significant increase of 4 percentage points from 0.1% in October. Exports were 2.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%, rebounding from - 0.8% in October. Imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, maintaining growth for six consecutive months [3]. - Trade with the EU and Africa rebounded significantly, while the decline in exports to the US continued to widen. In November, the total trade value with ASEAN increased by 3.3% year - on - year, and exports to ASEAN increased by 8.2%. The total trade value with the EU increased by 10.25% year - on - year, 8.3 percentage points higher than the previous period. Exports to the EU increased by 14.8% year - on - year, a significant rebound of 13.9 percentage points from October [3]. - High - end manufacturing became the core driving force for the rebound. In November, exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 9.65% year - on - year in US dollars, 8.4 percentage points higher than the previous month, and exports of high - tech products increased by 7.68% year - on - year, 5.9 percentage points higher than the previous month [3]. Industrial and Service Sectors - From January to November, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.0% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points lower than from January to October. In November, it increased by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points lower than in October [3]. - In November, the added value of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing above the designated size increased by 8.4% and 7.7% year - on - year respectively, maintaining a growth rate of over 7% in each month since 2025 [3]. - In November, the service production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous month and 1.9 percentage points lower than in November last year [3]. Economic Outlook and Recommendations - The economy still faces certain pressure. On the consumption side, although there is growth in durable goods and service consumption supported by policies, the decline in the retail sales of above - quota durable goods reflects that the overall consumer willingness still needs to be boosted. On the investment side, the drag of infrastructure and real - estate on the economy may continue [3]. - The probability of the introduction of growth - stabilization policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts increases. The bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected, and it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5 - year bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]

Core Insights - Liaoning's foreign trade showed significant growth in the first 11 months of the year, with total import and export value reaching 684.07 billion RMB, driven by a remarkable export performance of 373.48 billion RMB, which represents a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, surpassing the national average growth rate by 3.2 percentage points [1][2] Group 1: Export Performance - Exports reached a historical high for the same period, injecting new momentum into Liaoning's comprehensive revitalization [1] - The growth in exports is attributed to the continuous optimization of trade structure and the accelerated conversion of new and old driving forces [1] - The use of bonded logistics for imports and exports grew rapidly, with an increase of 10.4%, becoming a new pillar for stable growth [1] Group 2: Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises solidified their position as the main force in foreign trade, with imports and exports totaling 355.57 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, accounting for 52% of the province's total foreign trade value, an increase of 4.4 percentage points [1][2] Group 3: Market Diversification - ASEAN remains Liaoning's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade growing by 23.2%, indicating deepening economic cooperation [1] - Liaoning is actively exploring emerging markets, with imports and exports to Latin America and Africa increasing by 8.6% and 40.6%, respectively, showcasing significant cooperation potential, particularly with Africa [1] Group 4: Import Dynamics - The total import value reached 310.59 billion RMB, with a strong demand for consumer goods, particularly a 21.2% increase in seafood imports, reflecting a vibrant domestic market [2] Group 5: Overall Trade Resilience - Despite challenges, Liaoning's foreign trade demonstrates strong resilience and potential, characterized by a robust export engine, improved structure, and diversified partnerships [2]

Core Insights - Zhejiang's total import and export value reached 5.06 trillion yuan from January to November, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - Exports amounted to 3.83 trillion yuan, growing by 7.1%, while imports were 1.23 trillion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.1% [1] - Zhejiang's import and export, export, and import values accounted for 12.3%, 15.7%, and 7.4% of the national totals, ranking third, second, and sixth respectively [1] Trade Market Performance - ASEAN solidified its position as Zhejiang's largest trading market with a total trade value of 786.81 billion yuan, growing by 15.4%, contributing 40.9% to the province's overall import and export growth [1] - The EU is the second-largest trading market for Zhejiang, with a trade value of 770.14 billion yuan, increasing by 8.3%, including imports and exports with France reaching 83.84 billion yuan, up by 7.3% [1] - Exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa grew by 16.1%, 10.0%, 12.0%, and 15.4% respectively [1] - Total trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 2.90 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5%, accounting for 57.3% of the province's total import and export value [1] Private Sector Performance - Private enterprises' import and export values reached 4.16 trillion yuan, growing by 7.0%, and accounted for 82.1% of the province's total, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Exports from private enterprises were 3.30 trillion yuan, up by 8.4%, while imports were 858.61 billion yuan, growing by 1.7% [2] - Foreign-invested enterprises reported an import and export value of 619.78 billion yuan, increasing by 2.8%, with exports at 394.41 billion yuan, up by 2.3%, and imports at 225.37 billion yuan, growing by 3.8% [2] Export Product Trends - The export of electromechanical products reached 1.79 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8%, with "new three samples" products exporting 120.2 billion yuan, a significant increase of 23.3% [2] - Solar products, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries have seen continuous growth for 4, 12, and 20 months respectively [2] - Labor-intensive products exported amounted to 1.13 trillion yuan, growing by 3.9%, capturing 30.5% of the national market share [2] - High-tech product exports reached 324.35 billion yuan, increasing by 10.7%, with high-end equipment exports at 129.73 billion yuan, growing by 16.8% [2] Import Product Trends - Electromechanical product imports grew significantly, reaching 218.42 billion yuan, an increase of 21.8%, with aircraft and other aviation equipment, as well as computers and components, growing by 122.9% and 43.1% respectively [2] - Consumer goods imports totaled 143.46 billion yuan, growing by 8.7%, while agricultural product imports reached 112.04 billion yuan, increasing by 10.6% [2]

Export Performance - In November 2025, China's exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, a rebound of 7.0 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Imports grew by 1.9% year-on-year, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The trade surplus reached $111.68 billion, compared to $90.07 billion in the previous month[1] Regional Analysis - The drag from exports to the United States expanded by 0.6 percentage points to 4.4 percentage points[3] - Exports to the EU, Hong Kong, Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America contributed 1.9, 1.6, 1.5, 1.4, and 1.0 percentage points respectively[3] - ASEAN remains the largest contributor to China's exports, with significant increases from Africa, the EU, Hong Kong, and India compared to 2024[3] Product Analysis - Mechanical and high-tech products were the main drivers of export growth, contributing 4.8 and 1.6 percentage points respectively[3] - Labor-intensive products continued to drag on exports, contributing a negative 0.6 percentage points[3] - Key products like automobiles, ships, and integrated circuits showed strong performance, collectively increasing their contribution to 2.0 percentage points[3] Import Dynamics - Mechanical and high-tech products maintained stable contributions to import growth at 1.8 and 2.5 percentage points respectively[3] - The drag from raw materials decreased to 2.5 percentage points, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Agricultural products' drag on import growth was 0.3 percentage points, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include underwhelming implementation of growth policies, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns[3]

Core Viewpoint - In November, China's export growth exceeded expectations and previous values, primarily driven by strong resilience in exports to non-US regions, with significant contributions from the automotive, semiconductor, and machinery sectors. The drag from labor-intensive products on overall exports has diminished [1] Export Analysis - The export growth in November is attributed to robust performance in non-US markets, indicating a resilient demand [1] - Key sectors contributing to export growth include the automotive industry, semiconductor industry, and machinery and transportation equipment [1] - The overall export growth for the year is projected to reach approximately 5.3%, supported by a strong fundamental outlook for next year [1] Import Analysis - In contrast, import growth in November fell below expectations, potentially linked to a decline in manufacturing sector activity [1] - Notable increases in import volumes were observed for bulk commodities such as iron ore, copper, and natural gas, while imports of crude oil and coal saw a decrease in growth rates [1]

Export Performance - In November 2025, total exports reached $330.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, exceeding market expectations of 3.0% and reversing the previous month's decline of -1.1%[1] - Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America improved significantly, contributing 1.9 percentage points, 1.5 percentage points, and 1.0 percentage points to overall export growth, respectively[1] - Exports to ASEAN, China's largest trading partner, saw a marginal slowdown, with year-on-year growth decreasing by 1.9 percentage points to 8.6%, marking the first single-digit growth since February of the same year[1] Trade with the United States - Exports to the U.S. fell by 3.2% month-on-month in November, with a year-on-year decline of 28.8%, the lowest in three months, remaining within the -25% to -30% range[2] - The decline in exports to the U.S. was influenced by high base effects from last year, where exports peaked at $47.3 billion in November 2024 due to anticipatory stockpiling ahead of tariff increases[2] Product Categories - The export growth rate for electromechanical products and high-tech products improved, with electromechanical exports rising by 9.8% and high-tech products by 7.8%, both nearing the average levels seen in the first nine months of the year[3] - Labor-intensive product exports saw a reduced decline from -14.8% to -8.2%, although this remains low compared to the average decline of around 5% in August and September[3] Import Trends - Total imports in November amounted to $218.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, slightly above the previous month's 1.0%[4] - Imports of electromechanical and high-tech products improved, contributing 5.5 percentage points to overall import growth, while bulk commodity imports turned negative, declining by 1.0% year-on-year[5] Regional Economic Performance - Neighboring economies also showed strong export performance, with South Korea's exports rising by 8.4% year-on-year in November, up from 3.6% in October[6] - Vietnam's exports experienced a slight slowdown to 15.8% year-on-year but maintained double-digit growth[6] Future Outlook - Despite high base effects, November's export performance is expected to support a rebound in industrial value-added growth year-on-year[7] - The resilience of exports is anticipated to continue, bolstered by competitive pricing of manufactured goods, although fluctuations may occur in the coming months due to previous stockpiling effects[7]

Export Data - In November 2025, China's exports reached $330.35 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, significantly higher than the expected 3.0% and the previous month's decline of 1.1%[2][3][4] - The increase in exports is attributed to the fading high base effect and strong overseas demand, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles, while the drag from labor-intensive products has lessened[3][4][14][16] Import Data - Imports in November 2025 totaled $218.67 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, up from 1.0% in October[2][18] - The rise in imports is driven by robust export-related intermediate goods demand and a low base effect from the previous year, with significant increases in copper and iron ore imports of 35.3% and 15.9%, respectively[18] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for November 2025 was $111.68 billion, an increase from the previous month's surplus of $90.07 billion[2] Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America saw notable increases, with the EU experiencing a year-on-year growth of 14.8%[5][4] - In contrast, exports to the US declined by 28.6%, indicating ongoing challenges in US-China trade relations[5] Future Outlook - December's export growth may face challenges due to high base effects, but optimism remains for 2026 driven by global fiscal expansion and improved US-China trade relations[3][21] - The expected reduction in tariffs on certain products and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could further support China's exports to the US[21]

Export Performance - In November, China's exports reached $330.35 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9%, recovering from a previous decline of -1.1%[5] - The ten-year average year-on-year export growth rate for November is 2.8%[5] - The increase in exports is supported by global economic recovery and market diversification, alongside a low base effect from last year[6] Import Trends - Imports in November totaled $218.67 billion, with a growth rate of 1.9%, slightly up from 1% previously[5] - The ten-year average year-on-year import growth rate for November is 0%[7] - Industrial production recovery and increased demand for certain commodities, such as grains (15.4% growth) and rubber (11.3% growth), supported import growth[7] Trade Surplus - The trade surplus for November was $111.68 billion, an increase from $90.07 billion in the previous month[5] Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to the EU increased by 14.8%, significantly up from 0.9% previously, likely due to pre-Christmas shipping demands[15] - Exports to the US saw a larger decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -28.6%, worsening from -25.2%[15] - Exports to Africa rebounded to 27.6%, contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall export growth[16] Product-Specific Insights - The export growth rate for mechanical and high-tech products improved, with automotive exports increasing by 53% and integrated circuits by 34.2%[22] - Labor-intensive products showed varying recovery, with a notable improvement in toys and textiles[24] Future Outlook - Cumulative export growth from January to November was 5.4%, with a projected annual growth rate of 5.8% for 2024[26] - The export growth outlook remains resilient despite uncertainties in US-China relations and global economic conditions[26] Risks - Potential risks include weakening external demand, domestic economic downturns, and escalating trade tensions[33]