证券研究报告 工业生产走弱,新房成交回升 中观数据周报 分析师: 段超 (S0190516070004) 于长馨 (S0190525010003) 谢智勇（S0190525030002） 王祉凝（S0190525060004） 报告日期: 2025年11月23日 投资要点 KEY POINTS · 政策，政策聚焦经济高质量发展与外部协调并行。 11月18日，习近平对全面依法治国工作作出重要指示： 金融监管总局在海南召开外 资金融机构座谈会，全力支持把海南自由贸易港打造成为引领我国新时代对外开放的重要门户，李强会见俄罗斯总统普京。11月21日， 国务院国资委召开中央企业专业化整合推进会并举行重点项目集中签约仪式，财政部与中国人民银行发布关于储蓄国债（电子式）纳 入个人养老金产品范围有关事宜的通知；中国代表傅聪致函联合国秘书长就高市涉华错误言行阐明立场。 生产&基建: 上游生产活动有所回落，中等化工链生产回落，价格整体走平。本期，高炉开工率小幅下降，动力煤日耗走平，价格持 续回升。螺纹钢库存持续回落，价格小幅回升，开工率小幅回落。化工链生产强度整体下降，PTA开工率大幅回落，涤纶长丝开工率 走平,玻璃价格小幅回落 ...

每经AI快讯，健盛集团（SH 603558，收盘价：11.37元）11月23日晚间发布公告称，截至本公告披露 日，公司及其控股子公司经批准可对外担保总额为不超过人民币26亿元，担保总额占公司2024年度经审 计净资产的104.13%。公司及其控股子公司已实际对外担保总额为21.1亿元，全部为公司及子公司提供 的担保，占公司最近一期经审计净资产的比例为84.5%。 2024年1至12月份，健盛集团的营业收入构成为：纺织品占比98.81%，其他业务占比1.19%。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——"抛售日本"？GDP负增长，股市跳水，国债被抛，日元贬值！高市早苗"亡 命一搏"："灌水"21万亿！专家：恐赴"特拉斯风暴"后尘 （记者 曾健辉） 截至发稿，健盛集团市值为39亿元。 ...

双方计划建立关税水平与市场准入定期审查机制，为后续贸易合作搭建长效框架。美印贸易协议的推进，本质是政治意志与市场规律的双重博弈，其影响 已辐射全球主要经济体。 美国收获多重红利，既扩大了能源与农产品出口渠道，缓解国内产业压力，又通过贸易绑定深化对印经济影响力，为"印太经济联盟"落地铺路。更重要的 是，借助印度廉价劳动力，美国试图打造"中国替代"的供应链备份。 印度机遇与风险并存，关税下降将直接提振出口企业订单，但扩大美国农产品进口可能冲击本土农业体系，而减少俄油进口或推高国内能源成本。此外， 印度制造业70%的空调压缩机、58%的手机零部件依赖中国进口，供应链"去中化"短期内难以实现。 2025年全球贸易格局正迎来重磅变数。美国与印度接近敲定搁置已久的双边贸易协定，美方拟将对印商品关税从当前50%的高位大幅降至15%-16%。这一 横跨能源、农业、制造业的贸易突破，不仅直指美印5000亿美元贸易目标，更暗藏全球供应链重构的深层博弈，引发市场对中美印贸易三角、产业转移的 连锁猜想。 整体税率降至15%-16%区间 美印此次贸易谈判的核心，是一场精准的双向让步。 关税大幅下调成关键亮点，美国将取消针对印度的25% ...

报告指出，今年1月至10月，服装出口额为96.2亿美元，同比增长20.29%；纺织品出口额5.6亿美元，同 比增长38.77%；鞋类产品出口额17.3亿美元，增长29.9%；旅行用品出口额17.1亿美元，增长5.8%。 据柬商业部最新报告，今年前10个月，柬埔寨服装、鞋类及旅行用品出口额136.2亿美元，与去年同期 的113.5亿美元相比，大幅增长20%。 柬埔寨服装、鞋类及旅行用品工厂工人的最低工资将从目前的208美元上调至明年的210美元。目前，最 低工资制度仅适用于上述三大制造业领域，其他行业尚未纳入范围。 商业部数据显示，2024年柬埔寨服装、鞋类及旅行用品出口总额为139.2亿美元，较2023年的112.9亿美 元，增长23%。 服装、鞋类及旅行用品产业不仅是推动柬埔寨经济增长的关键驱动力，更是维系其外汇储备稳定的战略 基石。相关产品主要出口至美国、欧洲、英国、加拿大、韩国及日本等国际市场。 ...

（责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇11月17日｜印度政府周一公布数据显示，受黄金进口增加及对美出口下降影响，印度10月商品贸 易逆差扩大至创纪录的416.8亿美元。9月的贸易逆差已升至13个月高点的321.5亿美元。根据印度央行数 据，2024年8月逆差为356.2亿美元。路透社调查显示，经济学家原本预计10月的贸易逆差为288亿美 元，低于前一个月的321.5亿美元。印度商务部数据显示，10月对美出口同比下降近9%，从去年同期的 69.1亿美元降至63.1亿美元，但较9月有所回升。关税冲击了纺织品、虾类以及宝石和珠宝等商品的出 口。与此同时，10月自美国进口额从9月的39.8亿美元增至44.7亿美元。黄金进口额在10月达到147亿美 元，高于9月的96亿美元。 ...

Core Points - Trump's sudden announcement to raise tariffs on Indian goods has caught the Indian government off guard, leading to urgent discussions on response strategies [1][3] - The criticism of India's economy as a "dying economy" highlights concerns over its slow growth and lack of competitiveness in international trade [3][8] - The potential impact of the tariff increase could lead to a significant drop in India's exports to the U.S., estimated at 15-20%, severely affecting the Indian economy [9][11] Group 1: Economic Impact - India's exports to the U.S. accounted for nearly 20% of its total exports in the first half of 2025, with textiles, jewelry, and pharmaceuticals being major contributors [8] - A 10% increase in U.S. tariffs could raise the prices of Indian textiles by at least 8%, resulting in a loss of orders [9] - A decline in exports could shrink production scales in related industries, potentially leading to over 500,000 job losses if exports drop by 20% [11] Group 2: Government Response - The Indian government is exploring various emergency measures, including expediting customs clearance for goods to minimize losses before the tariff increase takes effect [6] - Proposals include negotiating with the U.S. to reverse the tariff decision, implementing retaliatory tariffs, and seeking new trade partners to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [6][8] - The Finance Ministry has allocated emergency funds to support affected businesses during this crisis [6] Group 3: Market Reactions - The announcement has triggered panic among investors, leading to a significant drop in the Indian stock market and a depreciation of the Indian rupee against the dollar [11] - Increased import costs and inflationary pressures are anticipated as a result of the tariff hike [11] Group 4: International Context - The situation has drawn attention to China's unique position in the global market, as it continues to attract significant U.S. investment despite trade tensions [13][15] - China's independent foreign policy and emphasis on multilateralism contrast with India's current challenges, suggesting lessons to be learned from China's approach [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the impact of tariffs is gradually diminishing in Q4, leading to a stabilization of orders. Nike's latest quarterly performance exceeded market expectations, signaling a recovery point, which is expected to improve supplier outlooks [1][5]. Brand Apparel Insights - In September, the retail sales of clothing increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth acceleration of 1.6 percentage points [1]. - E-commerce performance in October showed positive trends across all categories, with outdoor products leading growth. Year-on-year growth rates for various categories included: sports apparel at 0%, outdoor apparel at +19%, leisure apparel at 0%, home textiles at +1%, and personal care at +2% [2]. - Leading brands in sports apparel growth included Lululemon (88%), Asics (47%), and Descente (35%). In outdoor brands, Kailas (55%), Berghaus (41%), and Camel (39%) showed strong growth [2]. Textile Manufacturing Insights - On a macro level, October saw a year-on-year decline in textile exports from China (-9.1%) and Vietnam (-1.0%), with apparel and footwear exports from China down by 16.0% and 21.0% respectively. However, PMI indices for Indonesia, India, and Vietnam showed increases, indicating a stable manufacturing environment [3]. - On a micro level, Taiwanese companies are optimistic about future revenue, with orders visibility extending to six months for certain firms. Companies like Yu Hong expect revenue recovery in Q4, while Wei Hong has strong demand driven by the upcoming World Cup [4]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on textile manufacturing rebound and consumer innovation opportunities. The textile manufacturing sector is expected to see order recovery in Q4, with companies like Shenzhou International and Huali Group positioned to benefit from tariff stability and Nike's recovery [5][6]. - In the brand apparel sector, the long-term growth potential of the sports and outdoor segment is highlighted, with recommendations for brands like Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, as well as non-sport brands benefiting from a "brand upward" strategy [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Jian Sheng Group's controlling shareholder, Zhang Maoyi, has pledged a significant portion of his shares, which raises concerns about the company's financial stability and shareholder confidence [1] - Zhang Maoyi holds approximately 132 million shares, accounting for 38.59% of the total share capital of Jian Sheng Group [1] - After the recent share pledge, Zhang Maoyi has pledged a total of 29.97 million shares, which represents 22.67% of his holdings and 8.75% of the company's total share capital [1] Group 2 - The combined shareholding of Zhang Maoyi and his action-in-concert party, Hangzhou Yideng Trading Co., Ltd., is about 151 million shares, representing 44.1% of the total share capital [1] - The revenue composition of Jian Sheng Group for the year 2024 is projected to be 98.81% from textiles and 1.19% from other businesses [1] - As of the report date, Jian Sheng Group has a market capitalization of 4.1 billion yuan [1]

【环球时报驻墨西哥特派记者 谢佳宁 环球时报记者 白云怡】彭博社10日援引知情人士的话称，墨西哥对华征收高额关税的计划再次被推迟，最 早于12月在国会审议。据透露，来自墨西哥商界领袖以及执政党内部的反对声浪日益高涨，阻碍了国会就关税计划展开辩论。据媒体公开报道， 墨西哥政府9月初将提案提交给众议院后，该计划已被推迟过一次，原定于11月底审议。中国外交部发言人林剑11日回应称，中方坚决反对在他人 胁迫下以各种名义对华设限，损害中方的正当利益，我们会根据实际情况坚决维护自身的权益。林剑说，中方高度重视中墨关系的发展，在当前 个别国家滥施关税的背景下，中墨双方更应加强沟通协调，共同维护自由贸易和多边主义，共同推动世界经济复苏和全球贸易发展。 报道援引部分议员的观点认为，即便该计划能保护部分本地产业，也会损害依赖中国原材料的墨西哥企业。《美墨加协定》墨西哥首席技术贸易 谈判代表肯尼思·史密斯在近期一场经济论坛上形容该关税计划是一种"霰弹枪"式的做法，他认为"这会让许多国家和企业陷入交火之中"。 "相关关税计划也面临技术难题。"彭博社援引知情人士的话称，关于应针对哪些范围和类别的商品进行征税，墨西哥财政部和经济部也存在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing efforts by Hangzhou's industrial safety authorities to address fire hazards in industrial enterprises, particularly focusing on illegal constructions that pose significant risks to safety and fire prevention measures [5][9]. Group 1: Safety Inspections and Rectifications - A special task force has been conducting inspections across various districts in Hangzhou, identifying both old and new safety hazards in industrial enterprises [5]. - Most companies have rectified previously identified issues, but new safety hazards have also been uncovered during follow-up inspections [5]. - The authorities emphasize the need for continuous monitoring and precise actions to eliminate safety risks, particularly concerning illegal constructions that obstruct fire safety measures [5][9]. Group 2: Transition from Fixed to Mobile Structures - Illegal steel canopies, commonly used for storage in industrial settings, have been identified as significant fire hazards due to their rapid fire spread potential [6]. - A textile company in the Taihu Source Industrial Park has replaced a fixed 800-square-meter steel canopy with a movable pull-up rain canopy, which complies with safety regulations [6]. - The authorities have stressed that even movable structures must not obstruct fire lanes, maintaining a minimum clearance of 4 meters for fire trucks [6]. Group 3: Fire Safety Equipment and Compliance - During inspections, it was noted that many facilities lack adequate fire safety equipment, such as fire hydrants, which are crucial for initial fire response [6]. - A plastic bottle company has also rectified its illegal construction by replacing a fixed canopy with a movable one, acknowledging the associated risks [7]. - Companies are being urged to ensure that all facilities are equipped with necessary fire safety measures, including fire hydrants, to mitigate fire risks effectively [6][9]. Group 4: Material Compliance and Hazard Identification - The use of flammable materials, such as foam sandwich panels, has been flagged as a significant risk, prompting companies to replace them with fire-resistant materials [8]. - A metal decoration company is in the process of replacing over 300 square meters of flammable ceiling materials with fireproof alternatives [8]. - New illegal constructions, such as unauthorized warehouses, have been discovered during inspections, leading to immediate demands for their removal to prevent fire spread risks [9].