Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The global economy is undergoing a restructuring of the monetary system, driven by changes in trust due to shifts in international relations, leading to a gradual "de-dollarization" process [3] - The long-term bull market for gold is expected to continue, as the decline in trust among countries is unlikely to change, indicating a historical shift [3] - In the short to medium term, the U.S. dollar may face further credit decline risks, with potential upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and inflation expectations [3] Group 2: U.S. Tax Policy Risks - The new U.S. tax reduction plan presents three main risks: financing risk due to inappropriate U.S. debt supply pressure, economic risk from unfair income distribution effects, and trust risk related to unfriendly international tax policies [6] Group 3: Trade Relations and Asset Prices - Historical analysis shows that asset prices are significantly influenced by trade relations, with market sensitivity to negative signals being higher than to positive ones [7] - The performance of different asset classes varies, with stocks and currencies being more sensitive to trade signals compared to the bond market [7] Group 4: Convertible Bonds Market - The convertible bond market is expected to enter a bull market due to supply-demand mismatches, with low interest rates driving demand for attractive assets [9] - The risk of credit shocks in the convertible bond market is considered manageable, with strong support for the current convertible bond pricing [10] Group 5: IPO Market Strategy - The IPO market is set for high-quality development, with regulatory support for technology-driven companies and a steady increase in the number of IPOs expected in 2025 [16][17] - The anticipated issuance of 80 to 140 new stocks in 2025 is expected to raise approximately 94 billion yuan, with a projected average first-day increase of 150% for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [17] Group 6: Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery industry is facing intensified price competition, but healthy competition is expected to prevail, with market share likely concentrating among leading companies [18] - The resilience of leading e-commerce delivery companies is noted, with their performance remaining stable amid competitive pressures [18] Group 7: 3D DRAM Technology - The transition from 2D to 3D DRAM architecture is highlighted as a long-term trend, with significant implications for AI applications and hardware development [20] Group 8: Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile and apparel industry is expected to benefit from high-end segments and e-commerce trends, with a focus on brands that adapt to new market dynamics [22][23] Group 9: Yellow Wine Industry - The yellow wine industry is undergoing structural upgrades, with leading companies focusing on high-end product development and targeting younger consumer demographics [25]

改革蓄力积极突围，龙头盈利持续改善。 龙头酒企针对性开拓年轻消费市场，着力打破品类局限性与消费 群体老化桎梏，借助线上渠道推动全国化市场突围；同时发力高端产品市场培育，着力推动黄酒行业价值 回归。 24 年黄酒上市公司收入 / 扣非净利分别 同比 +10.0%/+27.7% ，我们认为随着产品结构升级与 提价，板块盈利有望进一步提振。 风险提示： 行业竞争加剧，结构升级不及预期，食品安全问题。 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月28日发布的 改革蓄力，升级振兴——黄酒行业专题报告 訾 猛 ，资格证书编号： S0880513120002 颜慧菁 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040022 张嘉颖 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040117 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 报告导读： 黄酒龙头改革突围，推动产品结构高端化、针对性开拓年轻消费群体，线上渠 道销售表现亮眼，板块盈利能力持续改善。 投资建议： 黄酒产 业加速振兴，头部酒企发力年轻化、高端化，目前黄酒板块基本面调整充分，上市公 司盈利能力持续改善。 产业政策持续加码，头部酒企表现亮眼。 行业需求端整体承压， 23 年黄酒企业销售收入 ...