Core Viewpoint - Company reported strong revenue growth driven by store expansion and same-store sales increase, with a significant rise in both revenue and adjusted net profit for the first half of the year [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue reached 5.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41% - Adjusted net profit was 1.09 billion yuan, up 42% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [1][3] - Adjusted core profit stood at 1.14 billion yuan, growing 49% year-on-year, with an adjusted core profit margin of 20.1%, up 1 percentage point [1][3] Growth Drivers - The company's GMV for the first half reached 14.1 billion yuan, a 34% increase year-on-year, with revenue contributions from product sales, franchise management services, and direct store sales at 4.5 billion, 1.16 billion, and 0.01 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 42%, 39%, and 14% [2] - Store expansion strategy led to a net increase of 1,265 stores, with a total of 11,179 stores by the end of the first half, including significant growth in lower-tier cities [2] - Introduction of 52 new products, including popular fruit and vegetable series and coffee products, contributed to increased sales, with daily sales per store reaching approximately 7,600 yuan, a 23% increase year-on-year [2] Profitability and Efficiency - Gross margin remained stable at 31.5%, while the management expense ratio decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.3% [3] - The company expects continued growth in the second half from delivery services and new product promotions, with potential for further increases in daily sales per store [3] Valuation and Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025 have been raised by 15% to 31%, with projected revenues of 12.4 billion, 15.2 billion, and 18.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same years have been increased by 22% to 46%, with a target market capitalization of 62.5 billion HKD and a revised target price of 27.7 HKD [3]

研究报告 Research Report 28 Aug 2025 古茗 Guming Holdings (1364 HK) 1H 业绩表现亮眼，未来增长仍具内外动能 1H Performance Outstanding, Internal and External Drivers Still Supporting Future Growth [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus 展望：预计 2H 外卖仍能带来一定增量，咖啡持续推广和早餐产品 将扩充消费场景，带来增量人群，预计单店日销仍有提升潜力。 估值预测：考虑到公司门店拓展提速，单店高增，我们上调 25-27 年收入各 15%/18%/31%至各 124/152/188 亿元，同比各增长 41%/ 22%/24%；上调经调净利各 22%/27%/46%至各 23.0/27.9/34.9 亿 元，同比各增长 49%/21%/25%，经调净利率各 18.5%/18.4%/ 18.5%。我们维持公司 2025 年 25 倍 PE 估值，对应合理目标市值 625 亿港元，上调目标价 14%至 27.7 港元（对应汇率为 HKD/ ...