美国商务部周五公布的一份关键通胀指标显示，9月份通胀率低于预期。这份因政府停摆而延迟的报告，或为美联储降息进一步亮起绿灯。 数据显示，剔除食品和能源项目的所谓核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数环比上涨0.2%，与8月数据持平，符合市场预期；同比增速则意外回落至2.8%， 创三个月低位，市场预期为连续第三个月录得2.9%。 数据公布后，现货黄金波动不大。 美联储官员将PCE物价指数作为衡量通胀的主要政策工具。虽然官员们会同时参考整体和核心数据，但他们普遍认为核心数据是衡量长期通胀趋势的更优指 标。 该报告因政府停摆而推迟了数周，停摆期间所有数据收集和经济报告均告暂停。 对于下一份PCE数据，经济分析局表示，下一次数据的发布时间尚未重新 安排。 消费者的回缩表明，在10月1日开始的史上最长的政府关门之前，美国经济的主要增长引擎就已经在放缓。虽然更多近期数据显示，由于购物者四处寻找折 扣，"黑色星期五"的销售表现稳健，但消费者对就业市场日益焦虑，且支出主要由较富裕的家庭推动。 周五公布的另一份数据显示，12月初消费者信心五个月来首次回升。密歇根大学指数的上升反映出，随着通胀预期改善，人们对个人财务前景更加乐观。 ...

Group 1 - The combination of a mild inflation report and weak labor market signals clears the way for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle [1] - The August CPI in the U.S. is reported at 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and slightly up from the previous value of 2.7% [1] - Core CPI for August is reported at 3.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, consistent with expectations and previous values [1] Group 2 - Citi analysts view the inflation report as encouraging for Federal Reserve officials preparing to implement a series of rate cuts [3] - The report indicates that price increases are primarily driven by volatile factors that are unlikely to persist, supporting the expectation of a more moderate growth in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index [3] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, with a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points over the next five FOMC meetings, potentially bringing the policy rate below 3% [3] Group 3 - U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all closing at historical highs, with the Dow surpassing 46,000 points for the first time [4][5] - The dollar index declined, while gold prices reached a new record high adjusted for inflation, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards risk assets [5][6] Group 4 - The bond market saw increased demand, with yields declining across the board, particularly in long-term bonds, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4.00% for the first time since April [7] - The 30-year mortgage rate also dropped to its lowest level since February 2023, reflecting the impact of anticipated rate cuts [7] Group 5 - Analysis of the August inflation data reveals that the upward pressure on commodity prices was weaker than expected, with limited transmission effects from tariffs [10] - Core commodity prices increased by 0.28% month-on-month, lower than Citi's expectations, indicating a potential decline in the commodity price component of core PCE [10] Group 6 - In the services sector, price increases were concentrated in a few volatile items, with core service prices rising by 0.35% month-on-month, largely driven by a 5.9% surge in airfare prices [11] - Analysts believe that the airfare price spike is unlikely to be repeated, and overall service price pressures are expected to remain moderate due to weak demand for non-essential services [11] Group 7 - The only concerning detail in the CPI data was the 0.38% month-on-month increase in Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER), which analysts believe does not indicate a new upward trend [12] - Analysts expect OER to continue to slow down in the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, alleviating overall inflationary pressures [13] Group 8 - Overall, the August CPI report and its details provide further justification for the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts, with market expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting becoming solidified [14] - The report reinforces the view that inflation risks are diminishing, while the need to support economic growth is becoming more prominent [14]