| 33738R118 | FIRST TRUST NASDAQ | | --- | --- | | | TECHNOLOGY INDEX | | 90137N106 | 21SHARES DOGECOIN ETF S | | | BEN INT | | 30151E723 | EXCHANGE LISTED FDS TR | | | ETC CABANA TA | | 上午5:44 · 2025年9月23日 | (i) | | ● 218 ● 回复 心 复制链接 | | | | 查理 90 多同复 使用机 一次 面 相 经济 | 文章来源：公众号梨花一枝香 本周初的下跌使狗狗币酝酿了 5 个月的突破受到质疑，为狗狗币价格看涨预测创造了决定性时刻。 由于整个市场的清算事件，该meme 币自周末以来已下跌 11%，但更广泛的叙事继续支持对第四季度的乐观情绪。 9 月份通胀降温增强了继续降息的理由，尽管今天的美联储会议将对定下基调起到关键作用。 由于市场预期年底前将再度放松 0.50% 的政策，因此爆发式增长具有强大的支撑，从而刺激对 DOGE 等风险资产的需求。 与此同时，狗狗币通过 21Shares 获得第二 ...

Group 1 - The unexpected drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for June, which rose by 2.6% year-on-year, significantly lower than the expected 3%, has been interpreted as a clear signal of cooling inflation [2] - The immediate market reaction included a surge in the S&P 500 index to a historical high, a rise in gold prices exceeding 1.5%, and an increase in the probability of a rate cut in September to over 90% [3] Group 2 - There are three cognitive traps investors may overlook: the transmission from PPI to Consumer Price Index (CPI) is not straightforward, with current core CPI still at 3.8%, far above the 2% target [3][4] - The market has overestimated the rate cut expectations, pricing in 3-4 cuts this year, which exceeds the Federal Reserve's implied 1-2 cuts [3] - The divergence between valuations and earnings is increasing, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 21 times, while expected earnings growth for Q2 has dropped to 3.2% [3] Group 3 - Investors are advised to adopt a layered strategy: short-term traders should follow the trend but maintain strict stop-loss orders, while long-term investors should focus on high-certainty value stocks and gradually reduce exposure to overvalued assets [4] - Key upcoming data to watch includes the CPI, which will be crucial in validating the PPI signals [4] - All investors should prepare for two scenarios: if inflation continues to cool, gradually increase holdings in interest-sensitive assets; if inflation shows persistent stickiness, allocate more to defensive assets [4]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has significantly revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now predicting three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, November, and December 2024, along with additional cuts in 2026, which is more aggressive than market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for the Aggressive Shift - Inflation is cooling faster than expected, with key indicators like CPI and PCE showing a quicker decline, particularly in stubborn areas like housing inflation, providing data support for earlier and faster rate cuts [2]. - The labor market is showing signs of significant cooling, with non-farm employment, job openings, and unemployment rate data indicating a return to a balanced state, alleviating concerns about a wage-inflation spiral [3]. - There are increasing risks of economic recession, as leading economic indicators suggest a weakening momentum in the U.S. economy, prompting the Fed to adopt a preemptive rate cut strategy to avoid a hard landing [4]. Group 2: Comparison with Market Expectations - Morgan Stanley's new prediction of three rate cuts in 2024 contrasts with the previous market expectation of only two cuts [5]. - For 2025, while the market anticipated 2-3 cuts, Morgan Stanley forecasts four cuts, indicating a faster pace [5]. - Morgan Stanley's forecast includes three rate cuts in 2026, a prediction rarely made by other institutions, highlighting a more aggressive approach compared to the market's cautious stance [5]. Group 3: Implications for Global Markets - If Morgan Stanley's predictions materialize, global asset prices could undergo significant revaluation, with gold being the biggest beneficiary, potentially reaching historical highs due to lower real interest rates and a weaker dollar [6][7]. - U.S. stocks may experience a liquidity-driven rally, although concerns about economic recession could limit gains, particularly affecting bank stocks due to narrowing interest margins [8][9]. - The dollar's dominance may face challenges, with a faster rate cut path leading to a narrowing of interest rate differentials, potentially resulting in a long-term decline in the dollar index and a rebound for non-U.S. currencies [10]. - Cryptocurrencies may see a resurgence in demand as global liquidity expectations improve, benefiting from both their status as risk assets and as "digital gold" [11][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Long-term investors are advised to accumulate "rate cut beneficiary" assets, such as gold, which should constitute 5%-10% of their portfolio [13]. - Investors should focus on high-quality tech and growth stocks with strong cash flows for long-term holding [14]. - Short-term traders should monitor economic data closely, as stronger-than-expected data could challenge Morgan Stanley's aggressive predictions, necessitating risk management strategies [15]. - All investors should maintain flexibility and avoid heavy bets based on a single prediction, ensuring a balanced and adaptable asset allocation [16].

Group 1: Inflation Data Insights - The overall inflation rate has reached a significant milestone with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, marking the first time in 2023 that it has fallen into the "2 range," indicating a decisive victory in the fight against inflation [1][3] - Core CPI shows a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, but its downward trajectory is becoming increasingly clear, suggesting that the true real-time core inflation level is much lower than reported [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The CPI report enhances the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, opening the door for potential rate cuts as early as next week [1][2] - The focus of the Federal Reserve is shifting from combating inflation to maintaining economic growth, as the risks to economic growth are now greater than those posed by inflation [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - The August CPI report is viewed as a positive turning point, confirming the diminishing threat of inflation and pushing the Federal Reserve towards a policy shift [2][3] - The stock market is expected to see a significant boost in risk appetite, particularly for interest-sensitive sectors like technology, as the anticipation of rate cuts creates a window for valuation recovery [2][3] - The bond market is likely to experience a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, especially for the 2-year Treasury, as investor enthusiasm for bonds is rekindled [2][3] - The dollar index may face downward pressure as the interest rate differential narrows with rising expectations of rate cuts [2][3]

Group 1 - The combination of a mild inflation report and weak labor market signals clears the way for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle [1] - The August CPI in the U.S. is reported at 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and slightly up from the previous value of 2.7% [1] - Core CPI for August is reported at 3.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, consistent with expectations and previous values [1] Group 2 - Citi analysts view the inflation report as encouraging for Federal Reserve officials preparing to implement a series of rate cuts [3] - The report indicates that price increases are primarily driven by volatile factors that are unlikely to persist, supporting the expectation of a more moderate growth in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index [3] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, with a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points over the next five FOMC meetings, potentially bringing the policy rate below 3% [3] Group 3 - U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all closing at historical highs, with the Dow surpassing 46,000 points for the first time [4][5] - The dollar index declined, while gold prices reached a new record high adjusted for inflation, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards risk assets [5][6] Group 4 - The bond market saw increased demand, with yields declining across the board, particularly in long-term bonds, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4.00% for the first time since April [7] - The 30-year mortgage rate also dropped to its lowest level since February 2023, reflecting the impact of anticipated rate cuts [7] Group 5 - Analysis of the August inflation data reveals that the upward pressure on commodity prices was weaker than expected, with limited transmission effects from tariffs [10] - Core commodity prices increased by 0.28% month-on-month, lower than Citi's expectations, indicating a potential decline in the commodity price component of core PCE [10] Group 6 - In the services sector, price increases were concentrated in a few volatile items, with core service prices rising by 0.35% month-on-month, largely driven by a 5.9% surge in airfare prices [11] - Analysts believe that the airfare price spike is unlikely to be repeated, and overall service price pressures are expected to remain moderate due to weak demand for non-essential services [11] Group 7 - The only concerning detail in the CPI data was the 0.38% month-on-month increase in Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER), which analysts believe does not indicate a new upward trend [12] - Analysts expect OER to continue to slow down in the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, alleviating overall inflationary pressures [13] Group 8 - Overall, the August CPI report and its details provide further justification for the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts, with market expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting becoming solidified [14] - The report reinforces the view that inflation risks are diminishing, while the need to support economic growth is becoming more prominent [14]

Group 1 - The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US unexpectedly decreased by 0.1% month-on-month in August, significantly lower than the market expectation of a 0.3% increase [1] - Prices for goods slightly increased, while service prices, particularly in wholesale and retail, faced significant profit compression as companies absorbed tariff costs without passing them onto consumers [1] - Employment market signals are weakening, with a substantial downward revision in new job additions, indicating that job growth is nearly stagnant [1] Group 2 - The stock market has risen, and the US dollar has weakened, as the market anticipates a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - There is a debate on whether the US economy is experiencing a mild recovery or a slow cooling, raising questions about the implications of employment and price signals [1] - The Federal Reserve's response to these economic signals remains a critical point of interest [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Monetary Authority of Singapore may ease monetary policy due to a cooling inflation trend as indicated by the July Consumer Price Index [1] - The core inflation rate increased by 0.5% month-on-month in July, which is lower than the 0.6% increase in June [1] - Analysts suggest that easing policy in October could be appropriate given the slowdown in core inflation and potential economic growth deceleration in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The Monetary Authority of Singapore maintained its policy in July and is likely to wait for more evidence before making further decisions [1] - Current policy discussions have shifted from controlling inflation to supporting economic growth [1]

Group 1 - The core event driving the market is the lower-than-expected US July CPI data, while the core CPI year-on-year rate has risen to a five-month high, leading to increased expectations for a Fed rate cut in September [1][10] - The US dollar index dropped by 0.44%, returning to around 98, while the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.294% and the 2-year yield fell to 3.741% [1] Group 2 - US stock markets experienced strong gains, with the Dow Jones up by 1.10%, S&P 500 by 1.13%, and Nasdaq by 1.39%, driven by improved market risk appetite due to rate cut expectations [2][3] - The semiconductor sector led the gains, with Intel rising by 5.62%, and notable performances from airline services and Chinese stocks, such as the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index up by 1.49% and Tencent Music by 11.85% [2] Group 3 - Gold prices saw a slight increase, closing up by 0.16% at $3348.02 per ounce, trading within a range of $3330 to $3360 [4] - Key technical levels for gold are being monitored, with potential volatility expected from speeches by five Fed officials [5] Group 4 - WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.3% to $62.45 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped by 0.85% to $65.70 per barrel, influenced by an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories [7][8] Group 5 - Fed officials expressed divided views on monetary policy, with some supporting the idea of maintaining current rates while others hinted at the possibility of rate cuts [11][12][13] - The confirmation of the Fed nominee Milan before the Senate in September could significantly impact the voting dynamics [14] Group 6 - Investment strategies suggest focusing on short-term opportunities in technology and consumer sectors, with monitoring of Fed officials' speeches, PPI, and retail sales data as key indicators [15] - For gold, a light long position near $3350 is recommended, with a stop loss at $3320, while for oil, a strategy of shorting on rebounds above $64 is advised [15]

Core Insights - The Australian labor market is undergoing a significant transition from an unsustainable hiring boom that drove unemployment rates below historical norms to a more balanced trajectory [1] - Employment growth has slowed for the first time in a year, aligning with population growth, indicating a gradual easing of the previously strong labor market [1] - High labor force participation is expanding economic capacity, helping to alleviate unit labor cost pressures and supporting inflation cooling without a sudden downturn in the job market [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia has room to act cautiously by monitoring high-frequency indicators like job advertisements to ensure that the pace of easing does not outstrip productivity and supply-side capacity improvements [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Bullish, with the Au2510 contract expected to oscillate between 765 yuan/gram - 785 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish, with the Ag2510 contract expected to oscillate between 9100 yuan/kilogram - 9350 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core View - The market's trading focus has shifted back to easing expectations. The cooling inflation and concerns about the US economy have strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, strongly supporting precious metal prices [1][8] - Although the Sino-US tariff risk has been temporarily resolved, the decline in tariff risk premium has limited impact on gold prices [8] - Silver's trading logic is in sync with gold, and with the rising rate cut expectation and the regression of the gold-silver ratio, silver prices are expected to continue rising [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation and Policy Expectations - In July, US CPI was 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3%. After the data release, the market expected a Fed rate cut in September with a probability over 90% [1] - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut rates, and Treasury Secretary suggested a 50-basis-point cut in September [1] 3.2 Tariff Progress - China and the US issued a joint statement. Both sides will continue to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days starting from August 12 [1] 3.3 Futures Market - On August 12, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.52 yuan/gram and closed at 776.04 yuan/gram, down 0.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots [2] - The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,180 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,187 yuan/kilogram, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 291,143 lots, and the open interest was 349,123 lots [2] 3.4 US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 12, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.29%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.57%, up 0.06% [3] 3.5 Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2508 contract, the long position decreased by 81 lots, and the short position decreased by 42 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts decreased by 31.67% [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long position decreased by 68 lots, and the short position decreased by 70 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai silver contracts decreased by 26.01% [4] 3.6 ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings increased by 4.58 tons to 964.22 tons, and the silver ETF holdings increased by 40.96 tons to 15,099.56 tons [5] 3.7 Arbitrage and Premiums - On August 12, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.22 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -542.83 yuan/kilogram [6] - The ratio of the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver futures was about 84.47, down 0.19% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 88.72, up 0.86% [6] 3.8 Fundamental Data - On August 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 18.85%, and the trading volume of silver decreased by 4.85% [7] - The gold delivery volume was 8,250 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 24,750 kilograms [7]