Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 18.09 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 34.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.98 billion yuan, down 53.7% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 3.29 billion yuan, a decline of 29.0%, with a net loss of 370 million yuan [2] - The company is focusing on inventory reduction and price stabilization, with a gradual recovery in product pricing and channel profitability expectations. The management team has been restructured, improving the sales team's performance and vendor relationships. Channel inventory is returning to a healthy level, and future sales effectiveness should be monitored [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are projected to decline by 22.7%, followed by growth of 5.4% and 7.5%. Net profit forecasts show a decrease of 44.9% in 2025, with subsequent increases of 7.7% and 12.8% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.44 yuan, 2.63 yuan, and 2.97 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 29.0, 26.9, and 23.9 [4] Summary by Sections Performance Review - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.29 billion yuan, down 29.0% year-on-year, and recorded a net loss of 370 million yuan [2] Operational Analysis - The company is prioritizing inventory reduction and price stabilization, with a focus on improving channel profitability. The management restructuring has positively impacted the sales team and vendor relationships. Channel inventory is improving, and future sales performance should be closely monitored [3] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are -22.7%, +5.4%, and +7.5%, respectively. Net profit forecasts are -44.9% for 2025, followed by +7.7% and +12.8% for 2026 and 2027. The estimated EPS for these years are 2.44, 2.63, and 2.97 yuan, with PE ratios of 29.0, 26.9, and 23.9 [4]

Summary of the White Wine Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The white wine sector showed mixed performance during the recent holiday periods, with banquet consumption remaining relatively strong, while business-related consumption declined significantly, with an expected drop of over 30% [1][4][19]. - The market for gift-giving remained stable, without significant declines [1][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - Certain banquet-style local wines (e.g., Gu 8, Gu 16, Meng 3) and national products (e.g., Honghua Lang 10, 1,618) benefited from the holiday demand, while products like Moutai 1,935 performed well due to their cost-effectiveness [1][6]. - High-end white wine rankings are as follows: Feitian Moutai > Pu Wuliang > Feitian Bian Moutai and Gaoduan Guojiao, which correlates with consumer perceptions of value [7]. - Feitian Moutai's price has dropped to around 1,800 RMB, a decrease of over 20% year-on-year, while Pu Wuliang's price has fallen from 950-1,000 RMB to 850-860 RMB, and even below 800 RMB in some cases [7]. Regional Performance - The Henan region outperformed expectations with a sales increase of approximately 15%, while regions like Hunan, Jiangsu, and Shandong experienced declines of about 20% [9][10]. - Most major white wine provinces saw declines between 20% to 25%, with Anhui and Zhejiang facing declines close to 30% to 40% due to slower recovery in business consumption [10]. Channel Dynamics - Inventory levels among wholesalers did not show significant weakness, with some brands even seeing increases. However, distributor inventories have decreased without a clear trend [11]. - The online channel has increasingly diverted sales from offline channels, with high-risk consumers preferring online purchases, while those seeking authenticity still favor offline buying [12][15]. - Instant retail has emerged as a significant trend, allowing consumers to purchase lower-priced white wine products through platforms like Meituan [13]. Company Strategies - White wine companies have generally refrained from large-scale expenditure and may reduce sales team sizes to control costs while maintaining current price levels [2][16]. - Companies are focusing on internal management and cost control in response to market changes, with most maintaining stable expenditure policies [16]. Market Outlook - Short-term demand for wedding wines is expected to weaken, with price adjustments anticipated due to the late timing of the upcoming Spring Festival [18]. - The overall market is expected to face pressure during the Spring Festival, but the decline will be less severe compared to the previous year [21]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with high potential returns, such as Laojiao, Fenjiu, Gujing, as well as leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, which are considered undervalued [21].