从近期数据表现看，美国公布的11月成屋签约销售指数环比增长3.3%，创下近三年新高，增幅也高于前值和市场预期。不过，该数据对汇市的直接影响有 限，未能明显改变美元的整体运行节奏，反映出市场当前更关注政策预期而非单一经济指标。 技术走势方面，欧元/美元自上周高点1.1808小幅回落后，在1.1760附近获得支撑，该位置对应11月中旬低点所形成的上升趋势线。从结构上看，这一趋势线 仍对汇价构成有效支撑，整体上升格局尚未被破坏。 在新年假期临近、市场交投明显清淡的背景下，欧元/美元周二整体表现平稳，撰稿时运行在1.1770附近。汇价在接近1.1800区域的三个月高点附近获得支 撑，但短期内上行动能有所放缓，显示出年末市场风险偏好偏谨慎的特征。 从中期结构看，欧元/美元仍处于相对有利的位置。美元年度表现偏弱，而主要经济体政策预期差异仍对汇价形成支撑。市场普遍认为，欧洲央行政策节奏 已趋于稳定，而美联储在未来一年存在多次调整政策的可能，这种预期差异限制了美元的反弹空间。 在此环境下，投资者的关注点逐渐转向美联储即将公布的12月货币政策会议纪要。 此前，美联储在内部意见并不完全一致的情况下推进了降息，并释放出未来政策可能 ...

Group 1 - The euro is trading around 1.1735 against the dollar, significantly retreating from the previous day's high of 1.1800, influenced by weak Eurozone data and cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials [1] - The GfK consumer confidence index from Germany dropped to -22.3, worse than the market expectation of -23.3 and the previous value of -22.5, raising concerns about the growth momentum of Europe's largest economy [1] - The market is focused on the U.S. Q2 GDP final value, expected to show an annualized growth rate of 3.3%, reversing the 0.5% contraction in Q1 [1] Group 2 - Multiple Federal Reserve officials, including the presidents of various regional banks, are scheduled to speak, which may influence market expectations regarding interest rates [2] - The initial jobless claims data in the U.S. is anticipated to rise to 235,000, up from 231,000 the previous week, indicating potential weakness in the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing a slight increase against the US dollar, influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the upcoming summit between President Trump and President Putin regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 1: Currency Movement - As of August 12, the euro is trading at approximately 1.1622 against the US dollar, reflecting a 0.08% increase from the previous closing price of 1.1612 [1] - The euro's Bollinger Bands indicate a moderate opening, with upper and lower bands at 1.1701 and 1.1513, respectively, and a middle band at 1.1607 [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The anticipated summit between Trump and Putin may influence the euro's performance, particularly if a ceasefire is achieved in the coming weeks [1] - The report suggests that if a ceasefire occurs, the euro could perform well against the US dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Despite the potential positive impact of a ceasefire, there remains significant uncertainty surrounding the negotiation outcomes, which may limit the euro's movement [1] - The MACD indicator shows a golden cross but indicates a slowdown in momentum, suggesting that upward momentum is weakening, while the RSI reading of 56.7765 indicates a neutral to strong position [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) is facing new considerations regarding its monetary policy path, particularly with the approaching expected interest rate cuts in June [1] - Recent economic data suggests that the rationale for the ECB to adopt a "pause after rate cuts" strategy is strengthening, while maintaining expectations for continued easing within the year [1] - The report includes a baseline scenario of two 25 basis point rate cuts in July and September, emphasizing the need to closely monitor the latest policy statements from ECB officials [1] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that if the euro to dollar price stabilizes above 1.1572, a light long position could be taken with a stop loss at 1.1520, targeting levels of 1.1650 and 1.1692 [2] - Conversely, if a rebound is blocked at 1.1572, a short position could be attempted with a stop loss at 1.1620, targeting 1.1450 and 1.1380, contingent on specific technical indicators [2] - In a range between 1.1380 and 1.1572, a strategy of buying high and selling low is suggested, with stop losses set at 30 points and targets of 50-80 points [2]