周四欧元兑美元在1.1735附近交投，较前一日高点1.1800上方显著回落。疲弱的欧元区数据以及美联储官员谨慎的表态，使欧元在周三大幅下跌0.6%。市场 当日的焦点将集中在美国二季度GDP终值和多位美联储官员的讲话。 来自德国的最新数据进一步打压了欧元。周四公布的GfK消费者信心指数降至-22.3，低于市场预期的-23.3，也较前值-22.5有所恶化。这一结果紧随周三公 布的德国IFO商业景气指数走弱之后，加剧了外界对欧洲最大经济体增长动能放缓的担忧。 ETO Markets交易平台技术分析： 欧元/美元在周三承受强劲下行压力，跌破自9月2日低点以来的趋势线支撑位（约1.1750）。4小时图动能指标已明显转弱，而周二所形成的较低高点强化了 趋势转向的信号。 下方支撑首先位于1.1730（9月22日低点），进一步支撑见于1.1700（9月12日低点）以及1.1660（9月11日低点）。若反弹，上方阻力在1.1750趋势线反压位 置，突破后目标将指向9月23日高点及9月18日高点，约1.1850区域。 在美国方面，美联储官员的言论令市场降息预期有所降温。旧金山联储主席戴利周三表示愿意放松货币政策，但强调需要兼顾就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing a slight increase against the US dollar, influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the upcoming summit between President Trump and President Putin regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 1: Currency Movement - As of August 12, the euro is trading at approximately 1.1622 against the US dollar, reflecting a 0.08% increase from the previous closing price of 1.1612 [1] - The euro's Bollinger Bands indicate a moderate opening, with upper and lower bands at 1.1701 and 1.1513, respectively, and a middle band at 1.1607 [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The anticipated summit between Trump and Putin may influence the euro's performance, particularly if a ceasefire is achieved in the coming weeks [1] - The report suggests that if a ceasefire occurs, the euro could perform well against the US dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Despite the potential positive impact of a ceasefire, there remains significant uncertainty surrounding the negotiation outcomes, which may limit the euro's movement [1] - The MACD indicator shows a golden cross but indicates a slowdown in momentum, suggesting that upward momentum is weakening, while the RSI reading of 56.7765 indicates a neutral to strong position [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) is facing new considerations regarding its monetary policy path, particularly with the approaching expected interest rate cuts in June [1] - Recent economic data suggests that the rationale for the ECB to adopt a "pause after rate cuts" strategy is strengthening, while maintaining expectations for continued easing within the year [1] - The report includes a baseline scenario of two 25 basis point rate cuts in July and September, emphasizing the need to closely monitor the latest policy statements from ECB officials [1] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that if the euro to dollar price stabilizes above 1.1572, a light long position could be taken with a stop loss at 1.1520, targeting levels of 1.1650 and 1.1692 [2] - Conversely, if a rebound is blocked at 1.1572, a short position could be attempted with a stop loss at 1.1620, targeting 1.1450 and 1.1380, contingent on specific technical indicators [2] - In a range between 1.1380 and 1.1572, a strategy of buying high and selling low is suggested, with stop losses set at 30 points and targets of 50-80 points [2]