虽然我们这次没有看到同样的情况，但值得关注。 日本收益率的上升推高了全球收益率，而此时美联储和其他央行正在降低短期利率。 较高的收益率对经济中利率敏感的领域构成阻力，包括房地产和"大件商品"（例如需要融资的汽车）。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin 本周全球债券收益率走高，日本领涨，此前日本央行将政策利率上调至约0.75%，为近30年来的最高水 平。日本10年期国债收益率升至2%以上，这是自上世纪90年代末以来从未出现过的水平，反映出日本 央行正在果断地摆脱超宽松货币政策。尽管加息，日元兑美元汇率仍走弱至约157，表明市场仍然怀疑 紧缩政策能否持续。此举在全球范围内引发连锁反应，推动美国国债和欧洲主权债券收益率走高。日本 的政策转变意义重大，因为日本国债长期以来一直是全球套利交易和久期风险敞口的基准。日本国债收 益率上升代表着全球金融状况的结构性收紧。日本不再压低全球收益率，这与过去几十年的政策形成鲜 明对比。 2024年夏季，收益率飙升和日元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aggressive tariff policies led by the Trump administration and the "big and beautiful" bill, which significantly increases the budget deficit, have caused the so-called "American exceptionalism" to collapse, prompting overseas investors to flock to the European market [1] Group 1: Overseas Investment Trends - In May, overseas buyers purchased nearly €100 billion (approximately $116 billion) of eurozone bond assets, marking the strongest buying scale by overseas investors in 2023 [1][4] - Traditional asset management institutions have significantly sold off U.S. Treasury assets in response to Trump's tariff announcements, seeking to allocate funds into safer European sovereign bonds like German government bonds [1] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - Foreign investors' total holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds reached $9.05 trillion in May, with a modest increase of $32.4 billion from April [5] - Despite this, concerns over potential inflation due to Trump's tariff policies and the collapse of "American exceptionalism" have led to a sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising by 50 basis points since April 2 [5] - The "big and beautiful" bill is expected to significantly expand the government budget deficit, contributing to upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, particularly for the 10-year Treasury yield, which is seen as a global asset pricing anchor [5][6] Group 3: European Bond Market Appeal - Compared to the U.S., Europe offers a more stable policy environment, lower budget deficit outlook, and lower inflation levels, making its sovereign bonds more attractive to global central banks [6] - The European Central Bank has more room to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth due to lower inflation, enhancing the appeal of European bonds [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Projections - The market is currently questioning the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy due to Trump's threats to potentially dismiss Fed Chairman Powell, which has led to increased scrutiny on long-term Treasury yields [6] - The term premium for 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is hovering at its highest level since 2014, reflecting investor concerns over the future borrowing scale of Washington [6][7] - Economists predict that under the Trump administration, the scale of national debt and budget deficits will be significantly higher than official forecasts, driven by a framework of "domestic tax cuts + external tariffs" [7]