Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by expectations of a large fiscal stimulus package from the new government led by Prime Minister Kishi [1][6]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds rose by 2 basis points to 1.765%, marking the highest level since June 2008 [1]. - The 40-year government bond yield hit a record high of 3.695%, indicating increased selling pressure in the long-end of the bond market [1]. - The results of the 20-year bond auction showed weak investor demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio dropping from 3.56 to 3.28, reflecting a decline in investor interest [5]. Group 2: Fiscal Stimulus Expectations - Initial expectations for the supplementary budget were around 14 trillion yen, but indications suggest it could expand to 17 trillion yen, with proposals even reaching 25 trillion yen [6]. - The market is concerned that such a large spending plan will necessitate the issuance of more government bonds, leading to additional supply pressure [6]. - Analysts note that the government's dovish stance may require the issuance of longer-term bonds to finance the spending plan, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Global Impact - The widening "tail" in the auction results, from 0.13 to 0.31, is seen as a signal of weak demand, with the 20-year bond yield nearing its highest level since 1999 at 2.795% [5]. - The rapid rise in Japanese government bond yields could have spillover effects on global markets, as Japan's long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy has positioned its bonds as a benchmark in the global debt market [6]. - Concerns are growing that the risks associated with long-term bonds may spread to other markets, reminiscent of the bond market sell-off in May [7].

此前一天，日本股债汇遭"三杀"。日本东京股市日经225指数18日收于48702.98点，大跌3.22%，跌幅为 今年4月初以来最大。同一天，日本国债也遭抛售，日元汇率下挫。（总台记者 刘耀鸿） 编辑 辛婧 据央视新闻消息，当地时间19日，日本新发10年期国债收益率升至1.76%，为2008年6月以来新高。 由于市场担忧日本首相高市早苗提出的扩张性财政政策会导致财政状况进一步恶化，日本国债遭投资者 抛售，长期利率持续上升。 ...

然而，投资者的视线正迅速从华盛顿的政治僵局转向一个更大的不确定性来源：因停摆而延迟发布的关键经济数据，以及这些数据将如何影响美 联储未来的利率路径。 数据"迷雾"笼罩市场，投资者等待经济前景明朗化 美国政府的长期停摆不仅干扰了公共服务，更制造了一个巨大的经济"数据真空"，这成为投资者和决策者面临的首要挑战。白宫已确认，由于停 摆，包括就业数据和10月消费者价格指数（CPI）在内的关键指标不太可能按时发布。 Principal Asset Management的Seema Shah也表示，当前真正的挑战并非停摆对经济增长造成的短期拖累，而是投资者和美联储因缺乏数据而越来越 难以判断经济前景。 据CCTV国际时讯，当地时间11月12日晚，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署法案，美国史上最长纪录的政府"停摆"正式结束。消息传来，全球股市延 续涨势，一度逼近历史高点。 美股期货收复稍早失地，标普500指数期货录得上涨，欧洲股市期货预示将再创历史新高，亚洲股市也收涨。与此同时，对美联储一旦政府恢复运 作后可能降息的预期，支撑黄金价格连续第五天上涨。 "虽然市场正在消化政府停摆结束的消息，但我们面前还有一座更大的山要翻越，那就是所 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has increased by 2.5 basis points to 1.675% [1] Group 1 - The rise in the 10-year government bond yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment and expectations regarding future interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has increased by 1 basis point to 1.665% [1] Group 1 - The rise in the 10-year bond yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards Japanese government debt [1]

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, is linked to Japan's new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, who advocates for a dovish monetary policy and increased economic stimulus [1] - The rise in gold prices reflects a broader trend of declining trust in fiat currencies globally, with various countries facing high debt-to-GDP ratios [3][4] Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold's price increase can be segmented into three phases: the first phase began with the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, leading to a significant accumulation of gold by central banks seeking non-freezable assets [2] - The second phase was triggered by the U.S.-China trade war initiated by Trump in April, which diminished confidence in the U.S. dollar's stability [2] - The third phase commenced in August when the Federal Reserve signaled potential interest rate cuts despite high inflation, further fueling gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2: Economic and Monetary Policy Implications - The current economic landscape shows that debt levels in developed economies are nearing or exceeding 100% of GDP, raising concerns about debt sustainability [3][4] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that rising debt costs and slowing nominal growth threaten the sustainability of debt in developed markets, predicting that by 2030, debt repayment costs will align with economic growth rates [4] - The potential shift in U.S. monetary policy under Trump, focusing on fiscal dominance, could lead to a depreciation of the dollar and increased inflation expectations, thereby elevating gold prices [5][6] Group 3: Japan's Economic Strategy - Japan's new prime minister supports a strategy that combines structural reforms with fiscal and monetary stimulus, which may lead to higher inflation if the Bank of Japan yields to government pressure [6] - The market signals indicate a long-term expectation of debt dilution through inflation, particularly in Japan, where long-term bond yields are rising [6]

Core Insights - Unexpected political turmoil in Japan and France is impacting global financial markets, raising concerns about the fiscal stability of major economies and leading to significant sell-offs in Japanese and French government bonds [1] Group 1: Japan's Political Shift - The unexpected victory of Sanna Takashi in the ruling party leadership election has locked in her position as the next Prime Minister, which is interpreted as a signal for increased government spending and potential inflation [2][3] - Following this political shift, the Japanese yen depreciated by 1.8% against the US dollar and reached a historical low against the euro, while the 10-year government bond yield surged to its highest level in over a decade [3] Group 2: France's Political Crisis - The sudden resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, just a month into his term, has deepened the political crisis in France, marking the fifth Prime Minister to resign in two years due to challenges in passing fiscal measures [3] - This political instability has led to a rise in French government bond yields, with the 10-year yield increasing by 9 basis points to 3.6%, and the spread between French and German bond yields widening to 89 basis points [3] Group 3: Shift to Safe-Haven Assets - The political upheavals in Japan and France have intensified investor concerns regarding the fiscal health of major economies, prompting a shift towards "currency devaluation trades" as investors move away from traditional currencies [4][5] - As a result, alternative assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin are experiencing significant demand, with gold prices reaching new highs and Bitcoin trading near its historical peak [6]

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds decreased by 0.5 basis points to 1.655% [1] - The yield on Japan's 5-year government bonds fell by 3 basis points to 1.19% [1]

Core Points - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.67%, the highest level since July 2008 [1] - The Ministry of Finance set the coupon rate for the upcoming 10-year bonds at 1.7%, an increase from 1.5% in the previous quarter, marking a 17-year high [4] - The rise in long-term interest rates is driven by expectations of an early interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [4] Summary by Category Government Bonds - The coupon rate for the 10-year government bonds has been adjusted to 1.7%, reflecting a significant increase from the previous rate of 1.5% [4] - The increase in interest rates may lead to higher debt servicing costs for the government, raising concerns about fiscal pressure [4] Monetary Policy - Two policy committee members of the Bank of Japan proposed raising the policy rate to around 0.75% during the September monetary policy meeting, contributing to market expectations of a rate hike in October [4] - The ruling party's minority status in both houses of parliament has heightened vigilance regarding fiscal expansion, which is also a factor contributing to the rise in long-term interest rates [4]

Group 1 - Global long-term bonds are under pressure, with developed markets like the US, UK, Japan, and France seeing long-term yields reach multi-year highs, including the UK 30-year bond yield hitting its highest level since 1998 and the US 30-year bond yield approaching 5% [1] - Japan's recent 30-year bond auction showed a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.31, slightly below the 12-month average of 3.38, providing temporary relief to the global bond market amid rising government spending [1][2] - The results of the Japanese bond auction led to buying across all maturities, causing long-term bond yields to retreat from decades-high levels, although analysts caution this is a tactical relief rather than a trend reversal [2][3] Group 2 - Concerns over high and rising fiscal deficits across countries are driving the demand for higher yields from long-term bond investors, with analysts noting that the increase in yields is primarily due to rising real rates rather than inflation fears [2][7] - The recent auction results improved market sentiment, but indicators still show cautious attitudes, with the tail spread widening slightly from the previous auction [6] - Political uncertainties, particularly regarding the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's potential leadership changes, are complicating the outlook for monetary policy and contributing to ongoing volatility in the bond market [7][8]