——库存去化宏观微暖，下方支撑较强 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月7日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周铅价偏强震荡，当前铅市处于宏观预期偏暖+地域性供给收紧与累库隐忧的博弈阶段。宏观层面， 随着美国12月利率决议临近，市场对降息25个基点的预期升温，叠加近期美国数据（如JOLTs职位空缺）表 现平平，美元指数承压下行，为有色板块提供了估值支撑。供给端，矛盾显著激化。原生铅方面，云南、安 徽、江西等地冶炼厂集中检修，导致地域性现货流通收紧；再生铅方面，受环保换证（安徽）及原料紧缺 （内蒙古）影响，开工率下滑至48.4%，散单货源极度稀缺。需求端，虽然正值冬季，但汽车起动电池步入 传统旺季，叠加年底冲量效应，大型电池厂开工率回升至74.46%，对铅价形成刚需托底。库存端，社会库存 降至2.36万吨的15个月新低，低库存给予多头极强的逼仓底气。综上所述，在显性库存极低且供应端持续受 到扰动的背景下，铅价短期易涨难跌，维持震荡偏强判断。 铅定价逻辑 source： SMM,南华研究 元/吨 元/金属吨 国产铅精矿价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in sales of low-voltage lithium batteries has driven steady performance improvement for Camel Group (601311.SH) [1][4] Group 1: Company Performance - Camel Group expects a net profit of 5.02 billion to 5.65 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 60% to 80% [1][6] - The company achieved total revenue of approximately 155.92 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 10.75%, with a net profit of about 6.14 billion yuan, up 7.26% [5] - The company has cumulatively distributed dividends of approximately 25.21 billion yuan since its listing in 2011 [2][3] Group 2: Business Strategy and Development - Camel Group has established a comprehensive industrial chain covering lead-acid batteries, lithium batteries, and battery materials, forming a closed-loop ecosystem from research and development to recycling [1] - The company has actively transitioned towards low-voltage lithium battery business, with a significant increase in sales driven by the growing demand in the electric vehicle market [4][5] - Camel Group's low-voltage lithium battery revenue grew by 376% year-on-year, becoming a key driver of performance growth [5] Group 3: Employee Engagement and Shareholder Returns - The second phase of the employee stock ownership plan raised 29.75 million yuan, with 44 employees participating, aimed at attracting and retaining talent [2] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 2.90 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 3.4 billion yuan, which accounts for 55.41% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3]