Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the asphalt futures will fluctuate in the near term. The supply side shows a decline in the start - up rate and an expected increase in production in September. The demand side is restricted by factors such as funds, weather, and investment data. The cost - side support of asphalt is limited due to the low - level fluctuation of crude oil prices [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The operation strategy is range operation. The asphalt start - up rate last week decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 29.3% month - on - month, 3.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.686 million tons, an increase of 273,000 tons or 11.3% month - on - month and an increase of 683,000 tons or 34.1% year - on - year. The start - up rates of downstream industries were mostly stable last week, with the road asphalt start - up rate remaining unchanged at 28.33% month - on - month. The national asphalt shipments increased by 11.17% to 263,800 tons week - on - week. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased this week but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The resumption of oil extraction in Venezuela by Chevron may reduce the discount for China's purchase of asphalt raw materials. There are factors both promoting and restricting asphalt demand, and the cost - side support of asphalt is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the asphalt futures 2510 contract rose 1.17% to 3,551 yuan/ton today, with the lowest price at 3,547 yuan/ton and the highest price at 3,582 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 3,747 to 105,860 lots [2]. - In the basis market, the mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract fell to - 11 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the start - up rate of asphalt decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 29.3% month - on - month due to the shutdown or conversion to residue production of some devices. The start - up rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Investment data shows that from January to July, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased slightly compared with that from January to June 2025 but was still negative. From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased to - 2.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to 3.2% [4]. - As of the week of August 29, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable, with the road asphalt start - up rate remaining unchanged at 28.33% month - on - month, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4]. - The government has proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. As of the end of July, the stock of social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%; the M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; and the balance of RMB loans was 268.51 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The acceleration of government bond issuance was the main reason for the increase in the growth rate of the social financing scale [4]. Inventory - As of the week of August 29, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.5% compared with the week of August 22, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply side shows a recovery in the start - up rate but still at a relatively low level in recent years. Demand is restricted by factors such as funds, rainfall, and high temperatures. Cost support has weakened, and policies are more favorable for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt start - up rate rose 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In August, the domestic asphalt planned production is 241.3 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. Some refineries will switch production or have intermittent shutdowns this week [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt start - up rate remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years due to funds, rainfall, and high temperatures. Some areas' rainfall will still affect the rigid demand for asphalt [1]. - Cost: The U.S. allowing Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela may narrow the discount for China's asphalt raw material purchases. Recent crude oil prices have fallen after rising, weakening the cost support for asphalt [1]. - Policy: The new round of ten key industries' stable growth work plan will be released soon, which is more beneficial for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. - Market outlook: It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate in the near term [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2510 contract fell 1.68% to 3520 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3501 yuan/ton, the highest was 3538 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3838 to 208129 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract rose to 260 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The asphalt start - up rate rose 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment data: From January to June, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.9% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was 0.6%, and that of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 4.6% [4]. - Downstream start - up rate: As of the week of August 1, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, with the road asphalt start - up rate remaining flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Fiscal policy: The government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9%, and the new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of August 1, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.5% week - on - week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5].