【冠通研究】 沥青：高开后震荡 制作日期：2025年9月2日 【策略分析】 区间操作 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.4个百分点至29.3%，较去年同期高了3.8个百分点，沥青开 工率继续回落，仍处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，9月份国内沥青预计排产268.6万吨， 环比增加27.3万吨，增幅为11.3%，同比增加68.3万吨，增幅为34.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率 多数稳定，其中道路沥青开工环比持平于28.33%，仅略高于去年同期水平，受到资金和部分地区降 雨高温制约。上周，华东地区终端需求尚可，出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加11.17%至26.38 万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比本周环比有所下降，但仍处于近年来同期的最低位。 美国允许雪佛龙恢复在委内瑞拉开采石油，或将导致中国购买沥青原料的贴水幅度缩小。本周河北 地区炼厂计划复产，南方天气转好支撑刚需，但北方地区降雨较多，另外，资金端制约，市场谨慎， 影响沥青需求。原油期价低位震荡，沥青成本端支撑有限，供需双弱下，近期沥青期货震荡运行。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 今日沥青期货2510合约上涨1.17%至3551元/吨，5日均线 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply side shows a recovery in the start - up rate but still at a relatively low level in recent years. Demand is restricted by factors such as funds, rainfall, and high temperatures. Cost support has weakened, and policies are more favorable for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt start - up rate rose 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In August, the domestic asphalt planned production is 241.3 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. Some refineries will switch production or have intermittent shutdowns this week [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt start - up rate remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years due to funds, rainfall, and high temperatures. Some areas' rainfall will still affect the rigid demand for asphalt [1]. - Cost: The U.S. allowing Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela may narrow the discount for China's asphalt raw material purchases. Recent crude oil prices have fallen after rising, weakening the cost support for asphalt [1]. - Policy: The new round of ten key industries' stable growth work plan will be released soon, which is more beneficial for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. - Market outlook: It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate in the near term [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2510 contract fell 1.68% to 3520 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3501 yuan/ton, the highest was 3538 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3838 to 208129 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract rose to 260 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The asphalt start - up rate rose 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment data: From January to June, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.9% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was 0.6%, and that of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 4.6% [4]. - Downstream start - up rate: As of the week of August 1, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, with the road asphalt start - up rate remaining flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Fiscal policy: The government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9%, and the new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of August 1, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.5% week - on - week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5].