证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 09 21 年 月 日 量化周报 非银离确认日线级别下跌仅有一步之遥 非银离确认日线级别下跌仅有一步之遥。本周（9.15-9.19），大盘震荡下 行，上证指数全周收跌 1.30%。在此背景下，大部分板块迎来了一波 30 分钟级别调整，非银离确认日线级别下跌仅有一步之遥。市场的本轮上涨 自 4 月 7 日以来，日线级别反弹已经持续了 5 个多月，反弹幅度也基本在 30%左右，各大指数和板块的上涨基本都轮动了一遍，超 2/3 的行业日线 级别上涨处于超涨状态，几乎所有的规模指数及一半以上的行业更是走出 了复杂的 9-15 浪的上涨结构，而银行也已经率先形成了日线级别下跌， 非银离确认日线级别下跌仅有一步之遥。因此我们认为本轮日线级别上涨 大概率已临近尾声。短期，市场的波动进一步加大后，投资者后续可积极 关注市场未来是否出现放量滞涨、放量大跌及缩量反弹迹象。中期来看， 上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 3 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚 开始；此外，已有 26 个行业处于 ...

量化周报 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 09 07 年 月 日 市场波动进一步加大 市场波动进一步加大。本周（9.1-9.5），大盘出现大幅震荡，上证指数全 周收跌 1.18%。市场的本轮上涨自 4 月 7 日以来，日线级别反弹已经持续 了 4 个多月，反弹幅度也基本在 20%以上，各大指数和板块的上涨基本 都轮动了一遍，上证指数、上证 50、非银、有色、农林牧渔、消费者服务、 商贸零售、纺织服装、计算机、建筑、交运等板块更是走出了复杂的上涨 结构，而银行也已经率先形成了日线级别下跌，因此我们认为本轮日线级 别上涨大概率已临近尾声。短期，市场的波动进一步加大，投资者后续可 积极关注市场未来是否出现放量滞涨、放量大跌及缩量反弹迹象。中期来 看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科 创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 3 浪结构，中期牛 市刚刚开始；此外，已有 25 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 17 个行业周 线上涨走了 1-3 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市是个普涨格局。中期对于 投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Index Enhanced Portfolio **Construction Idea**: The model aims to outperform benchmark indices by leveraging quantitative strategies and factor exposures[2][48] **Construction Process**: - The portfolio is constructed using a strategy model that selects stocks based on factor exposures and optimization techniques - The model incorporates historical data and factor analysis to identify stocks with high expected returns relative to the benchmark - Portfolio weights are optimized to maximize excess returns while controlling for risk and tracking error[48][49][54] **Evaluation**: The model has demonstrated consistent excess returns over its benchmark indices, showcasing its effectiveness in active management[48][54] - **Model Name**: Factor Attribution Model **Construction Idea**: This model decomposes portfolio or index returns into contributions from various style factors to understand performance drivers[68] **Construction Process**: - The model uses the BARRA factor framework, which includes factors such as size (SIZE), beta (BETA), momentum (MOM), residual volatility (RESVOL), non-linear size (NLSIZE), valuation (BTOP), liquidity (LIQUIDITY), earnings yield (EARNINGS_YIELD), growth (GROWTH), and leverage (LVRG)[58][68] - Factor exposures are calculated for each stock in the portfolio or index - Portfolio returns are attributed to factor contributions using regression-based methods[68] **Evaluation**: The model provides valuable insights into the sources of portfolio performance, aiding in strategy refinement and risk management[68] Model Backtesting Results - **Index Enhanced Portfolio**: - **Mid-Cap Enhanced Portfolio (CSI 500)**: Weekly return of 1.99%, outperforming the benchmark by 0.22%; cumulative excess return since 2020: 50.26%; maximum drawdown: -4.99%[48][49] - **Large-Cap Enhanced Portfolio (CSI 300)**: Weekly return of 1.85%, outperforming the benchmark by 0.61%; cumulative excess return since 2020: 34.90%; maximum drawdown: -5.86%[54][56] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Momentum (MOM) **Construction Idea**: Captures the tendency of stocks with strong past performance to continue outperforming in the short term[58][59] **Construction Process**: - Momentum is calculated as the cumulative return over a specified look-back period (e.g., 6 months or 12 months) - Stocks are ranked based on their momentum scores, and portfolios are constructed by overweighting high-momentum stocks[58][59] **Evaluation**: Momentum factor exhibited high excess returns during the week, indicating strong market preference for trending stocks[59] - **Factor Name**: Beta (BETA) **Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market movements, capturing risk exposure[58][59] **Construction Process**: - Beta is calculated using regression analysis of stock returns against market returns over a historical period - High-beta stocks are identified and analyzed for their risk-return trade-offs[58][59] **Evaluation**: High-beta stocks performed well during the week, reflecting market preference for riskier assets[59] - **Factor Name**: Growth (GROWTH) **Construction Idea**: Represents the expected earnings growth of a company, capturing future potential[58][59] **Construction Process**: - Growth is estimated using forward-looking metrics such as analyst earnings forecasts and historical growth rates - Stocks are ranked based on growth scores, and portfolios are constructed by overweighting high-growth stocks[58][59] **Evaluation**: Growth factor underperformed during the week, indicating reduced market preference for growth-oriented stocks[59] Factor Backtesting Results - **Momentum Factor**: Weekly excess return was significantly positive, outperforming other style factors[59][66] - **Beta Factor**: High-beta stocks showed strong performance, contributing positively to portfolio returns[59][66] - **Growth Factor**: Underperformed during the week, reflecting weak market sentiment toward growth stocks[59][66] Additional Observations - **Sector Factors**: - Defense, metals, and coal sectors exhibited high excess returns relative to market-cap-weighted benchmarks[59][63] - Sectors such as healthcare, IT, and media experienced significant drawdowns[59][63] - **Market Sentiment**: - Sentiment indicators based on volatility and trading volume suggest a bullish outlook for the market[36][39][41]

Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect is positive, incremental capital is expected to continue entering the market. Currently, the WIND All A trend line is around 5400 points, with a profit-making effect value of 4.09%, which is significantly positive. Even in the face of short-term fluctuations, it is recommended to hold patiently or increase positions on dips [1][3][8]. Performance Metrics - The Davis Double strategy has an excess benchmark of -0.44% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 26.78% for the year. The CSI 300 Enhanced strategy has an excess benchmark of 0.31% this week, with a cumulative excess return of 16.82% for the year. The net profit gap strategy has an excess benchmark of -1.68% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 35.72% for the year [1][9][13]. Sector Recommendations - In terms of industry allocation, the mid-term perspective continues to recommend sectors that are experiencing a turnaround, including Hong Kong innovative drugs, Hong Kong securities, and Hang Seng consumption. The upward trend remains intact. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on military industry, AI applications, and solid-state batteries. Overall, in the upward trend, attention should be paid to high-elasticity sectors such as brokerages and technology [2][3][8]. Valuation Indicators - The overall PE of the WIND All A index is around the 70th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB is around the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level. Based on short-term trend assessments, the absolute return products with WIND All A as the stock allocation subject are recommended to have an 80% position [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The timing system signals show that the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages continues to expand, with the latest data showing the 20-day line at 5437 and the 120-day line at 5168 points. The difference between the two lines has increased from 4.04% last week to 5.21%, with an absolute value significantly greater than 3%. The market continues to operate in an upward trend [3][8].