Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have drawn significant attention from global investors, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations, with a medium-term upward trend anticipated after short-term adjustments [1][3] Price Fluctuations - As of August 11, COMEX gold futures were priced at $3415.7 per ounce, down approximately 2%, while London gold spot prices were at $3359.81 per ounce, indicating a period of high volatility since late July [1] - The price gap between international gold futures and spot prices has widened significantly, reaching levels not seen in recent years, with a peak difference of over $100 per ounce [2] Market Dynamics - The recent increase in gold prices is attributed to various factors, including lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, which heightened concerns about economic weakness, leading to a rapid rebound in gold prices [1][2] - The World Gold Council reported a net increase of 22 tons in global official gold reserves in June, marking the third consecutive month of slight increases, with China's gold reserves reaching 2300.41 tons by the end of July [2] Future Price Predictions - Institutions generally expect gold prices to maintain an upward trajectory, with Goldman Sachs predicting a potential rise to $3700 per ounce by year-end, and some optimistic forecasts suggesting prices could reach $4000 per ounce [3] - UBS maintains a price target of $3500 per ounce under baseline scenarios, with potential for $3800 per ounce if geopolitical tensions escalate or global economic conditions worsen [4] Investment Demand - Investment demand for gold has surged, with a year-on-year increase of 78%, and inflows into gold ETFs reaching the fastest half-year growth since 2010, indicating strong market interest [4] - UBS has revised its annual gold ETF demand forecast from 450 tons to slightly above 600 tons, marking the largest increase since 2020, despite current holdings being approximately 650 tons below historical peaks [4]