"按不同标准测算，当前我国略高于3万亿美元的外储规模均处于适度充裕状态。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对《证券 日报》记者表示，综合考虑各方面因素，未来外储规模有望保持基本稳定。在外部环境波动加大的背景下，适度充裕的外储规 模将为保持人民币汇率处于合理均衡水平提供重要支撑，也能成为抵御各类潜在外部冲击的压舱石。 同日公布的黄金储备数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国黄金储备为7415万盎司，较11月末的7412万盎司增加3万盎司， 为我国央行连续第14个月增持黄金。 "近期央行在国际金价持续大幅上涨、屡创历史新高过程中持续小幅增持黄金，释放了优化国际储备的信号。"王青表示， 截至2025年11月末，在主要由外汇储备和黄金储备构成的官方国际储备中，黄金储备的占比约为9.5%，明显低于15%左右的全 球平均水平。从优化国际储备结构角度出发，未来需要持续增持黄金储备。此外，黄金是全球广泛接受的最终支付手段，央行 增持黄金能够增强主权货币的信用，为稳慎推进人民币国际化创造有利条件。 Wind数据显示，2025年12月份，伦敦金现货价格上涨2.36%。其中，去年12月29日，伦敦金现货价格盘中最高触及4550.52 美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historical high of over $4,500 per ounce, is driven by multiple factors including the U.S. monetary policy shift towards easing, declining inflation, and increased demand from central banks and ETFs [1][6][10]. Group 1: Drivers of Gold Price Increase - The primary driver of the recent gold price increase is the adjustment in global monetary policy, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates three times in 2025, each by 25 basis points, and to initiate short-term Treasury bond purchases [6][7]. - The expectation of continued rate cuts in 2026, as indicated by the Fed's forward guidance, has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, prompting a shift of capital from traditional assets to gold [7][8]. - The current U.S. inflation rate is around 3%, and with weak non-farm employment data, there is a strong expectation for further monetary easing, which is supportive of gold prices [7][9]. Group 2: Weakening Dollar and Its Impact - The U.S. dollar is facing challenges that are undermining its credit foundation, leading to a decline in investor confidence in the dollar system and pushing it into a depreciation phase [10]. - As a result, gold's value as a safe-haven asset is being fully realized, attracting global capital allocation towards gold as an alternative to the weakening dollar [10]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, which has become a significant support for rising gold prices. This trend is characterized by large-scale and sustained purchases of gold [13][16]. - As of November 2025, China's gold reserves reached 7.412 million ounces, with a continuous increase for 13 months, reflecting a broader trend among central banks to enhance the proportion of gold in their reserve assets [13][16]. - The World Gold Council reported a net purchase of 53 tons of gold by central banks in October, marking a 36% increase month-over-month and setting a record for the year [13][16].

智通财经APP获悉，2025年的交易临近收官，全球贵金属市场再度迎来历史性行情。12月26日，国际金 银价格同步创下历史新高，其中伦敦金现货最高触及4549.9美元/盎司；白银表现更为迅猛，盘中最高 触及79.4美元/盎司，年内涨幅超174%。 2025年以来，黄金领涨贵金属市场，白银后来居上。贵金属市场全年的行情先后经历关税驱动、震荡调 整、降息预期主导以及技术回调几个主要阶段，就在市场认为行情将在高位震荡收官之际，新一轮涨势 再起，并再创历史新高。 具体来看，12月26日，伦敦金现货价格突破4500美元/盎司整数关口。截至目前，COMEX黄金期货和伦 敦金现货价格年内涨幅均超过70%。 白银表现更为亮眼。COMEX白银价格从12月19日至26日连续五个交易日大涨，价格从开盘65.44美元， 涨至最高79.7美元。2025年以来COMEX白银期货累计涨逾172%。 国内贵金属市场跟涨，沪金期货年内涨62%，最高触及1024元/克，沪银期货年内涨逾157%，最高触及 19215元/千克。 面对剧烈波动，上海期货交易所于12月26日发布通知，自12月30日收盘结算时起，对黄金、白银期货合 约的交易参数进行调整。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold prices have slightly increased this week, but the intensity of the increase is limited, with a higher probability of range - bound fluctuations. The 10 - year TIPS has risen to 1.93%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate has fallen to 4.19%. The recent price correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned [4][5]. - Silver prices have fluctuated significantly this week. Although there was a small accumulation of futures inventory, the accumulation was limited, and the TD deferred fee remained in the state of short - paying - long. The overseas Lease rate rebounded moderately. The risk of short - squeeze in silver at home and abroad in December is limited, but there is a greater risk of price increase from January to March 2026. After the price recently reached $65, it may enter a shock adjustment stage [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - **Price and Spread** - This week, London gold rose 2.45%, and London silver rose 11.02%. The gold - silver ratio fell from 72.2 last week to 66.6. The gold - silver price ranges are 950 - 990 yuan/gram for gold and 13,700 - 15,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [3][5]. - Overseas, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 30.515 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 27.1 dollars/ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread rose to - 0.165 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 1.03 dollars/ounce [11][17]. - Domestically, the gold futures - spot spread was - 5.86 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was 29 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.28 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 7 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [23][26][30][33]. - **Inventory** - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10.66 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.7%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 115.42 tons to 137,581 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 30.3%. Domestic gold futures inventory remained unchanged, and silver futures inventory increased by 132 tons to 802 tons [42][44][48]. - **Positions** - This week, the non - commercial net - long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while the non - commercial net - long position of silver decreased slightly. The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 2.82 tons, and the domestic gold ETF decreased by 0.2 tons. The silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 177 tons [50][53][57]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned this week, and the 10YTIPS has continued to decline [66]. - Information on inflation, retail sales, non - farm employment, industrial manufacturing cycle, financial conditions, economic surprise index, and inflation surprise index is presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [70][73][78][80].

债券月度回顾 11月以来，由于央行宣布重启国债买卖，债市情绪一度有所回暖，月初收益率小幅下行，但受央行买债 规模不及预期、年内货币宽松可能性降低等因素影响，收益率很快转为震荡上行，叠加公募基金费率新 规落地预期反复扰动，市场多头动力不足，缺乏交易主线。同时，债市弱势调整背景下，基金赎回压力 有所增加，进一步放大市场波动。全月10年期国债收益率上行近5BP至1.84%。 商品月度回顾 11月大宗商品市场明显分化。贵金属震荡走高，伦敦金现货月末收于4218.55美元/盎司，较上月上涨 5.41%；国内黄金现货收于948.15元/克，较上月上涨2.89%。有色板块区间震荡，伦铜收于11175.5美元/ 吨，上涨2.61%；沪铜收于87430元/吨，上涨0.48%。原油市场震荡下行，布伦特原油收于62.32美元/ 桶，月跌幅3.50%；上期所原油收于453.90元/桶，月跌幅1.05%。黑色板块先抑后扬，上期所螺纹钢收 于3110元/吨，月涨幅0.13%；大商所铁矿石收于794元/吨，较上月下跌0.75%。农产品内部分化，大商 所大豆收于3760元/吨，月涨幅1.08%；大商所玉米收于2244元/吨，月涨幅5.35% ...

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a sudden surge after initially declining, driven by new statements from key Federal Reserve officials regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [1][3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed support for a rate cut in December, citing possible downward revisions to September employment data, which increased market expectations for lower interest rates [3] - Goldman Sachs projected that the Federal Reserve would implement a third consecutive rate cut in December, reinforcing the growing consensus in the financial community regarding this expectation [3][5] Group 2: Investment Risks in Gold - The CME's "FedWatch" tool indicated an 82.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, a significant increase from the previous day's 69.4%, leading to a shift in market sentiment towards gold and other safe-haven assets [5] - Several cases of dubious gold investment schemes were highlighted, including a dealer promoting "gold leasing" and another offering high returns on gold investments through an app with an 80x leverage, which poses significant risks to investors [7][9] - Regulatory warnings were issued to the public about the dangers of high-leverage gold investments and the importance of choosing legitimate channels to avoid illegal financial activities [9][18] Group 3: Aluminum Market Trends - Aluminum prices have shown a pattern of rising and then retreating, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and fundamental factors, with recent declines attributed to a combination of hawkish Federal Reserve comments and mixed employment data [11][15] - Analysts noted that the oversupply of alumina and high inventory levels are likely to keep aluminum prices under pressure, with a potential for production cuts in December, although immediate impacts on supply-demand dynamics may be limited [13][15] - The aluminum market remains sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, with expectations for a potential weakening in demand and increased supply in the coming months, particularly with new capacities coming online [17][18]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, marking the second rate cut of the year, totaling a 50 basis point reduction [1][3] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will end the balance sheet reduction starting December 1 and will continue to monitor economic indicators for potential adjustments to monetary policy [2][3] - There is a notable division within the FOMC, with some members advocating for a larger rate cut of 50 basis points, indicating increasing internal disagreements [4][5] Group 2 - Major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance after reaching new highs, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding the Fed's future rate cuts [6][8] - Nvidia's market capitalization has surpassed $5 trillion, making it the first company to achieve this milestone, while other tech giants also saw gains [6][8] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index experienced fluctuations, with individual Chinese stocks showing varied performance [8] Group 3 - International gold prices have declined, while oil prices have seen a slight increase, indicating a divergence in commodity market trends [9][10] - Analysts suggest that gold prices may continue to experience high volatility due to a combination of reduced risk appetite and speculative sentiment [10] - Oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to the nearing end of the Northern Hemisphere's consumption peak and OPEC+ production increases [11]

Core Insights - International spot gold prices have strengthened significantly, with the London gold spot price surpassing $4200 per ounce for the first time in history, increasing by over 1.4% in a single day [1]. Price Data Summary - The current price of London gold is $4200.186 per ounce, reflecting an increase of $58.651 or 1.42% from the previous total of $4141.535 [2]. - The highest price recorded during the day was $4200.640, while the lowest was $4140.065 [2]. - Moving averages indicate a bullish trend, with the 5-day moving average at $4089.106, the 10-day at $4017.063, and the 20-day at $3890.352 [2].

Core Viewpoint - Global risk aversion is rising, leading to a significant increase in gold prices, with spot gold reaching over $4060 per ounce, marking a historical high [1] Group 1: Gold Price Predictions - UBS forecasts that gold prices will rise to $4200 per ounce in the coming months [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will reach $4500 per ounce by the second half of 2026 [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4300 per ounce to $4900 per ounce [1] Group 2: Gold Stock ETF Performance - The gold stock ETF (517400) rebounded strongly, increasing by 2.5%, with a year-to-date gain exceeding 90% [1] - The gold stock ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index, covering the entire gold industry chain, including upstream mining, midstream processing, and downstream consumption [1] - The gold stock ETF is an equity asset characterized by high volatility, requiring investors to adjust their asset allocation based on individual investment needs [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a strong upward trend in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, driven by expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] - On the morning of the 29th, London gold spot prices surged over 1%, reaching a high of $3807.85 per ounce, marking the sixth consecutive week of increases [1] - London silver also performed well, with prices rising over 2% to $47.174 per ounce, achieving a historical high [1] Group 2 - The increase in gold prices is attributed to the anticipated resumption of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, influenced by a decline in the U.S. labor market [1] - As a result of these monetary policy changes, global gold ETFs are expected to accelerate their accumulation of gold, further driving up prices [1]