Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has added to market uncertainty [1][2][4]. Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. confirmed successful strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, escalating concerns over regional stability and prompting fears of further conflict [2]. - Iranian officials have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, in response to U.S. actions, indicating potential for increased military engagement [2]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a decline of $64.95 or 1.89% last week, closing at $3468.52 per ounce, following a brief surge due to geopolitical tensions [1]. - Despite the recent drop, the demand for gold is expected to rise as investors seek refuge amid escalating geopolitical risks [3]. Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate, with 7 out of 19 officials suggesting no rate cuts are advisable this year, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change [4][5]. - The Fed's latest dot plot indicates a median federal funds rate of 3.9% for 2025, suggesting potential for future rate cuts depending on economic conditions [4]. Market Sentiment and Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut by the end of the year hover around 50 basis points, with any hawkish comments from Fed officials likely to impact the dollar and interest rate outlook [6]. - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming testimonies from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for insights into future monetary policy [5]. Gold Holdings and Investment Trends - Central banks are expected to increase their gold reserves, with 95% of surveyed banks anticipating growth in their holdings over the next 12 months [7]. - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, saw an increase in holdings by 9.75 tons, reaching a total of 950.24 tons, marking the fifth consecutive week of accumulation [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently in a bullish trend, with key resistance levels identified between $3400-$3424 and $3450-$3500 per ounce, while support levels are noted at $3372-$3360 and $3315-$3300 per ounce [7]. Domestic Market Insights - In the domestic market, gold futures have shown resilience, with key support at 775 CNY per gram and resistance levels identified between 790-795 CNY per gram [8].

新华财经北京5月19日电市场风险偏好的快速转暖，令上周（5月12至16日当周）国际金价大幅下跌。当 周现货黄金开盘3275.75美元／盎司，最高触及3292.28美元／盎司，最低3120.77美元／盎司，报收 3202.27美元／盎司，当周下跌124.29美元或3.74%，周线创下去年11月以来最糟糕的一周。 分析来看，对贸易局势的乐观情绪以及美联储重启降息预期时间的延后，是导致上周金价走弱的主要原 因。但也要看到的是，美国近期通胀数据放缓，加上经济数据弱于预期，巩固了美联储今年将进一步降 息的预期，这也使得金价得以险守3200美元／盎司关口。 鲍威尔在上周二的讲话中具体表示，未来通胀可能更加波动，美国可能进入一个供应冲击更频繁、持续 时间更持久的时期。他强调，重新考虑平均通胀目标是合适的，稳固通胀预期对美联储至关重要。 鲍威尔透露，美联储正在调整其总体政策制定框架，以应对2020年疫情后通胀和利率前景的重大变化， 计划在未来几个月内完成对该框架具体修改的审议。他指出，自2020年以来，经济环境已发生重大变 化，美联储的评估将反映这些变化的考量。尽管如此，鲍威尔认为，评估不太可能影响美联储目前设定 利率的方式 ...