Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price has remained around the $4000 per ounce mark, showing signs of stabilization despite a slight weekly decline, influenced by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and mixed economic signals from private sector data [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown has extended to 40 days, potentially becoming the longest in history, leading to delays in key economic indicators and reliance on private sector data [2][3]. - The ISM reported a decline in the manufacturing PMI from 49.1 in September to 48.7 in October, indicating continued contraction, while the employment sub-index rose to 46, suggesting some resilience in the labor market [2]. - The ADP employment report indicated an addition of 42,000 jobs in October, significantly above the expected 25,000, and the ISM services PMI rose to 52.4, indicating ongoing expansion in the services sector [2]. Labor Market and Consumer Confidence - Over 150,000 layoffs were reported in October, the highest level for the same period in over 20 years, contributing to a decline in consumer confidence to its lowest level in over three years [3]. - Despite mixed signals, economists generally believe the U.S. labor market is cooling, leading investors to lower expectations for the Federal Reserve's December policy stance [3]. Federal Reserve's Stance - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the potential for interest rate cuts in December, with some advocating for significant reductions while others caution against rapid cuts due to inflation risks [4]. - Various Fed officials expressed differing views on the current interest rate levels, with some suggesting they are near neutral and others emphasizing the need for caution in future rate cuts [4]. Market Conditions - Short-term financing rates are stabilizing, but there are concerns about potential increases in repo rates in the coming weeks, prompting speculation about the Fed's possible interventions to stabilize market liquidity [5]. - The Supreme Court is deliberating on the legality of large-scale tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could have significant implications for trade and economic policy [5]. Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Short-term resistance for gold prices is identified in the $4030-$4060 per ounce range, with key resistance at $4080-$4100, while support is seen at $3950-$3900 and critical support at $3850-$3750 [6]. - For domestic gold futures, resistance is noted at 930-950 yuan per gram, with support at 900-890 yuan per gram and critical support at 870-850 yuan per gram [6].

Core Points - International spot gold prices reached a historical record for five consecutive days last week, marking the ninth consecutive weekly increase, a rare occurrence since 1970 [1] - The price opened at $4013.02 per ounce, peaked at $4379.52, and closed at $4247.02, reflecting a weekly increase of $236.59 or 5.9% [1] - The upcoming week will focus on the September CPI data, which is expected to influence market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 1: Economic and Market Conditions - The U.S. government shutdown continues, impacting economic data releases and increasing expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated support for further rate cuts, with expectations of at least a 50 basis point reduction by the end of the year [2] - The KBW regional bank index fell by 3.6%, with major banks losing over $100 billion in market value due to concerns over loan fraud incidents [3] Group 2: Geopolitical and Regulatory Factors - President Trump signed an executive order imposing new tariffs on imported trucks and parts, while also indicating potential tariff relief for the automotive industry [3] - Positive geopolitical developments, such as the announcement of a ceasefire in Gaza and discussions to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may reduce demand for gold [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The rapid increase in gold prices since August has led to technical overbought conditions, suggesting a potential price correction [6] - Historical data indicates that gold has never experienced ten consecutive weeks of price increases, implying a likelihood of a downturn following the current nine-week rally [6] - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified between $4280-$4300 per ounce, with key support levels at $4180-$4150 [6] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Financial institutions are advising investors to manage risk and adjust their gold investment strategies in light of increased market volatility [4][5] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures to enhance risk control measures [4]