Core Viewpoint - The AUD/USD currency pair experienced a slight decline during the Asian trading session, retreating from its highest level since September 17, influenced by mixed Australian employment data [2] Group 1: Australian Employment Data - The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3%, below the market expectation of 4.4%, indicating resilience in the labor market [2] - Employment numbers fell unexpectedly by 213,000, significantly lower than the revised increase of 411,000 in October and below the market forecast of a 20,000 increase [2] - Full-time employment decreased by 56,500, while part-time employment increased by 35,200, showing a certain degree of structural divergence in employment [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Currency Support - The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish policy stance provided crucial support for the Australian dollar, as it maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.6% during the recent monetary policy meeting [2] - RBA Governor Bullock indicated that the board discussed potential future rate hikes and emphasized that further rate cuts are not necessary in the current economic environment, reinforcing hawkish expectations for RBA policy [2] - The weak performance of the US dollar, following the Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%, also contributed to the support for the AUD/USD pair [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - Market participants interpreted Fed Chair Powell's comments on significant downside risks to the US labor market positively, leading to expectations of two potential rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, which diminished the dollar's safe-haven appeal [3] - The combination of the RBA's hawkish stance and the weakness of the US dollar is expected to continue limiting the downside potential of the AUD/USD currency pair [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a narrow range around 0.6470 against the US dollar (USD), with recent fluctuations indicating a technical rebound but remaining constrained below the Bollinger middle band at 0.6480 [1][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Australia's July CPI rose to 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.3% and up from 1.9% previously, driven by rising electricity prices due to the expiration of household subsidies [3]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in September have decreased from 30% to 22%, while the probability for a November cut has increased to 61%, suggesting a potential delay in "preventive easing" measures [3]. - The RBA emphasized a data-driven decision-making framework, indicating that future policy will depend on inflation, economic growth, and employment indicators [3]. - External factors, such as political uncertainty in the US, have created short-term disturbances for the USD, potentially providing relative support for risk currencies like the AUD [3]. Technical Analysis - The Bollinger Bands indicate a short-term framework with the upper band at 0.6501, middle band at 0.6480, and lower band at 0.6459, suggesting the AUD is currently in a weak channel below the middle band [4]. - Key support is identified between 0.6462 and 0.6469; if this area is breached, the lower band at 0.6459 may be tested [4]. - The MACD shows a narrowing gap between DIFF (-0.0006) and DEA (-0.0005), indicating a potential weakening of bearish momentum, but confirmation is needed for a short-term rebound [4]. Short-term Outlook - If the support band at 0.6462-0.6459 holds, the AUD may form a "U-shaped recovery" within the range of 0.6465-0.6485, with a high probability of retesting the Bollinger middle band at 0.6480 [5]. - A MACD crossover and RSI recovery towards the 50 level could extend the rebound towards the upper Bollinger band at 0.6501 and previous high at 0.6504 [5]. - Conversely, if the 0.6459 level is broken, bearish momentum may increase, targeting lower volatility zones [5]. Medium-term Outlook - The direction of inflation, GDP, and employment data will be crucial for the RBA's policy decisions leading up to the September meeting [5]. - A synchronized decline in these indicators may challenge the AUD's interest rate advantage, leading to a potential return to a downward channel [5]. - However, if inflation remains sticky and employment weakens moderately, alongside external pressures on the USD, there may be a window for the AUD to experience "oscillating upward" movements [5]. ETO Markets Viewpoint - The focus in the short term is on the support band, while the medium-term outlook relies on the consistency of economic data [6].

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is trading around 0.65 against the US dollar, with a slight increase of 0.03% from the previous close of 0.6524 [1] - A Reuters survey indicates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% on August 12 [1][2] - The inflation rate in Australia has dropped to 2.1%, the lowest in nearly four years, which is close to the RBA's target range of 2% to 3%, allowing for potential further rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a three-and-a-half-year high, indicating a slowdown in domestic demand and suggesting that monetary policy may need to become less restrictive [2] - Over 90% of surveyed respondents expect another 25 basis points cut by the end of the year, bringing the cash rate down to 3.35% [2] - Major Australian banks, including ANZ, CBA, NAB, and Westpac, forecast the cash rate to be 3.35% by year-end [2] Group 3 - The daily chart indicators have not confirmed a bullish bias, indicating that the AUD/USD needs to maintain above the 0.6500 level to support further upward movement [3] - If the AUD/USD breaks above 0.6600 with sustained buying, prices could rise to 0.6640 and potentially reach 0.6700 [3]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has experienced a decline against the US dollar (USD), with a daily drop of 0.50%, currently trading at 0.6477 [1] - The US dollar (USD) has strengthened against the Canadian dollar (CAD), surpassing 1.38, with a daily increase of 0.23% [1]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has increased by 0.50% against the US dollar (USD), currently trading at 0.6520 [1]