中免大涨，免税板块更新 20251222 摘要 2025 年初海南离岛免税销售额曾出现同比下降，但自 9 月起开始转正， 10 月、11 月增速分别达 11%和 13%。中免集团表现更优，8 月已转 正，10 月、11 月同比增长分别达 16%和 29%，市场占有率提升。 2025 年海南离岛免税销售额增长主要由客单价提升驱动，尤其 10 月后 客单价同比增长超 30%，苹果手机和黄金等高单价商品表现突出。客流 呈现个位数增长，转化率边际企稳。 海南封关政策对离岛免税产生显著影响。12 月 18 日封关首日，中免全 海南日销超过 2.5 亿，同比增长 90%；第二天仍有 70%左右的高增。 三亚市口径数据显示，封关首日全市日销同比增长 46%，随后两天持续 增长。 封关后旅游及商务客流均提升。元旦飞往三亚机票预定量同比增长 51%，春节飞往三亚与海口机票预定量分别同比增长 80%与 130%。 境外前往海南机票预订量同比增长 82%（12 月 18 日至 2026 年 1 月 3 日）。 海南封关后加大消费券力度，如通用券（满 6,000 减 300 至满 5 万减 4,000）和岛民专享券（满 1,000 ...

Core Insights - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,971 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [1] - From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 365,877 billion yuan, growing by 4.5% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Overview - Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods in September were 37,260 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.2% [1] - For the first nine months, the retail sales excluding automobiles totaled 329,954 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1] Group 2: Urban vs Rural Consumption - In September, urban retail sales reached 35,783 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% year-on-year, while rural retail sales were 6,188 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.0% [3] - From January to September, urban retail sales totaled 316,838 billion yuan, increasing by 4.4%, and rural retail sales reached 49,039 billion yuan, growing by 4.6% [3] Group 3: Consumption Types - In September, the retail sales of goods were 37,462 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, while catering revenue was 4,509 billion yuan, growing by 0.9% [3] - For the first nine months, the retail sales of goods amounted to 324,888 billion yuan, increasing by 4.6%, and catering revenue was 40,989 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.3% [3] Group 4: Retail Formats - From January to September, retail sales in convenience stores, supermarkets, department stores, specialty stores, and brand stores grew by 6.4%, 4.4%, 0.9%, 4.8%, and 1.5% respectively [5] - The online retail sales for the first nine months reached 112,830 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, and the physical goods online retail sales were 91,528 billion yuan, growing by 6.5% [5] Group 5: Detailed Retail Data - In September, the retail sales of limited above units reached 17,776 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [6] - The retail sales of physical goods online accounted for 25.0% of the total retail sales of consumer goods [5] - Categories such as food, clothing, and daily necessities saw growth rates of 15.1%, 2.8%, and 5.7% respectively in online sales [5]

Core Insights - The retail value of tobacco and alcohol products in China for August 2025 was 44.99 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 3.95% but a year-on-year decline of 2.3% [1] - Cumulatively, the retail value for the first eight months of 2025 reached 419.37 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [1] Summary by Category - **Monthly Performance** - In August 2025, the retail value of tobacco and alcohol products was 44.99 billion yuan, with a month-on-month growth of 3.95% [1] - Year-on-year, there was a decline of 2.3% in the same month [1] - **Cumulative Performance** - From January to August 2025, the cumulative retail value was 419.37 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [1]