全年社零+3.7%，稳健增长，提振政策显效 商贸零售 证券研究报告 行业点评报告 / 2026.01.20 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -12% -4% 3% 10% 18% 25% 商贸零售 沪深300 分析师 耿荣晨 SAC 证书编号：S0160525070002 gengrc@ctsec.com 分析师 杨澜 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080003 yanglan@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《社零+1.3%，商品消费略有降速》 2025-12-16 2. 《商社 2026 年年度策略报告》 2025- 12-13 3. 《餐饮增速转正，汽车、石油拖累社零大 盘》 2025-11-17 | 图 | 1： | 月度社零总额和当月同比 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 2： | 城镇与乡村社零增速 3 | | 图 | 3： | 社零中商品零售与餐饮增速 3 | | 图 | 4： | 月度限额以上单位消费品零售额和当月同比 4 | | 图 | 5： | 限额以上商品零售增速 4 | | 图 | 6： | 限额以上餐饮收入增速 4 | | 图 | 7 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan, indicating a growth of 3.7% compared to the previous year [3]. Group 1: Retail Sales Data - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China for 2025 are estimated at 50,120.2 billion yuan [3]. - Online retail sales in China reached 15,972.2 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an increase of 8.6% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - On December 31, 2025, consumers were observed purchasing mobile phones in a store on Nanjing Road [5]. - On the same day, consumers were also seen buying gold jewelry in a store on Nanjing Road [7]. - Additionally, consumers were purchasing food items in a store on Nanjing Road [7].

Core Insights - The market sales scale is expected to expand in 2025, with a rapid growth in service retail [2] Group 1: Overall Retail Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 5,012.02 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% compared to the previous year [2] - Urban retail sales amounted to 4,329.72 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%, while rural retail sales were 68.23 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.1% [2] - Retail sales of goods reached 4,432.20 billion yuan, increasing by 3.8%, and catering revenue was 579.82 billion yuan, up by 3.2% [2] Group 2: Category-Specific Growth - Basic living and some upgraded goods showed strong sales growth, with retail sales of communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, sports and entertainment products, home appliances, and food items increasing by 20.9%, 17.3%, 15.7%, 11.0%, and 9.3% respectively [2] Group 3: Online Retail Performance - The national online retail sales reached 1,597.22 billion yuan, growing by 8.6% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales at 1,309.23 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [2] Group 4: Monthly Trends - In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year but decreased by 0.12% month-on-month [2] Group 5: Service Retail Growth - The total service retail sales grew by 5.5% compared to the previous year, with significant growth in leisure services, communication information services, tourism consulting and rental services, and transportation services [2]

Core Viewpoint - The retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 reached 45,136 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, with a total annual retail sales of 501,202 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% compared to the previous year [1][6]. Group 1: Overall Retail Performance - In December 2025, retail sales excluding automobiles amounted to 39,654 billion yuan, growing by 1.7% year-on-year [1][6]. - For the entire year of 2025, retail sales excluding automobiles totaled 451,413 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.4% [1][6]. Group 2: Urban vs. Rural Consumption - In December 2025, urban retail sales reached 38,429 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, while rural retail sales were 6,707 billion yuan, growing by 1.7% [2][7]. - For the year 2025, urban retail sales totaled 432,972 billion yuan, up by 3.6%, and rural retail sales were 68,230 billion yuan, increasing by 4.1% [2][7]. Group 3: Consumption Types - In December 2025, the total retail sales of goods were 39,398 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, while catering revenue was 5,738 billion yuan, increasing by 2.2% [3][7]. - For the year 2025, total retail sales of goods reached 443,220 billion yuan, growing by 3.8%, and catering revenue was 57,982 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.2% [3][7]. Group 4: Retail Formats - In 2025, retail sales from convenience stores, supermarkets, department stores, and specialty stores grew by 5.5%, 4.3%, 0.1%, and 2.6% respectively, while brand specialty store sales declined by 0.6% [5]. - The total online retail sales in 2025 reached 159,722 billion yuan, marking an 8.6% increase from the previous year, with physical goods online retail sales at 130,923 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% and accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [5].

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 reached 50,120.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Breakdown - Urban retail sales amounted to 43,297.2 billion yuan, growing by 3.6% [1] - Rural retail sales reached 6,823.0 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.1% [1] - Retail sales of goods totaled 44,322.0 billion yuan, increasing by 3.8% [1] - Catering revenue was 57,982.0 billion yuan, showing a growth of 3.2% [1] Group 2: Performance of Specific Categories - Sales of basic living goods and certain upgraded products showed strong growth, with categories such as communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, sports and entertainment products, home appliances, and food items experiencing retail sales growth rates of 20.9%, 17.3%, 15.7%, 11%, and 9.3% respectively [1] Group 3: E-commerce and Online Retail - National online retail sales reached 15,972.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% [1] - Physical goods online retail sales were 13,092.3 billion yuan, growing by 5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales of consumer goods [1] Group 4: Monthly Trends - In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year but decreased by 0.12% month-on-month [1] Group 5: Service Retail Growth - Annual service retail sales grew by 5.5% compared to the previous year, with significant growth in categories such as cultural and recreational services, communication information services, tourism consulting and leasing services, and transportation services [1]

2025年12月份社会消费品零售总额增长0.9% 12月份，社会消费品零售总额45136亿元，同比增长0.9%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额39654亿元，增长1.7%。2025年，社会消费品零售总额501202 亿元，比上年增长3.7%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额451413亿元，增长4.4%。 智通财经APP获悉，国家统计局1月19日发布的数据显示，12月份，社会消费品零售总额45136亿元，同比增长0.9%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 39654亿元，增长1.7%。2025年，社会消费品零售总额501202亿元，比上年增长3.7%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额451413亿元，增长4.4%。 原文如下： 按零售业态分，2025年，限额以上零售业单位中便利店、超市、百货店、专业店零售额比上年分别增长5.5%、4.3%、0.1%、2.6%；品牌专卖店零售额下降 0.6%。 2025年，全国网上零售额159722亿元，比上年增长8.6%。其中，实物商品网上零售额130923亿元，增长5.2%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为26.1%；在实 物商品网上零售额中，吃类、穿类、用类商品分别增长14.5%、 ...

Group 1 - The total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 reached 50,120.2 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% compared to the previous year [1] - Urban retail sales amounted to 43,297.2 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%, while rural retail sales were 6,823.0 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.1% [1] - Retail sales of goods reached 44,322.0 billion yuan, increasing by 3.8%, and catering revenue was 57,982.0 billion yuan, growing by 3.2% [1] Group 2 - Sales of basic living goods and certain upgraded products showed strong growth, with categories such as communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, sports and entertainment products, home appliances, and food retailing increasing by 20.9%, 17.3%, 15.7%, 11.0%, and 9.3% respectively [1] - The national online retail sales reached 15,972.2 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales at 13,092.3 billion yuan, growing by 5.2%, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [1] Group 3 - In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year but decreased by 0.12% month-on-month [1] - Annual service retail sales grew by 5.5%, with significant growth in categories such as cultural and recreational services, communication information services, tourism consulting and leasing services, and transportation services [1]

新华社快讯：国家统计局1月19日发布数据显示，2025年，全国社会消费品零售总额501202亿元，比上 年增长3.7%；全国网上零售额159722亿元，比上年增长8.6%。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:王萌萌】 ...

12月份，社会消费品零售总额45136亿元，同比增长0.9%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额39654亿 元，增长1.7%。2025年，社会消费品零售总额501202亿元，比上年增长3.7%。其中，除汽车以外的消 费品零售额451413亿元，增长4.4%。 按经营单位所在地分，12月份，城镇消费品零售额38429亿元，同比增长0.7%；乡村消费品零售额6707 亿元，增长1.7%。2025年，城镇消费品零售额432972亿元，比上年增长3.6%；乡村消费品零售额68230 亿元，增长4.1%。 按消费类型分，12月份，商品零售额39398亿元，同比增长0.7%；餐饮收入5738亿元，增长2.2%。2025 年，商品零售额443220亿元，比上年增长3.8%；餐饮收入57982亿元，增长3.2%。 按零售业态分，2025年，限额以上零售业单位中便利店、超市、百货店、专业店零售额比上年分别增长 5.5%、4.3%、0.1%、2.6%；品牌专卖店零售额下降0.6%。 2025年，全国网上零售额159722亿元，比上年增长8.6%。其中，实物商品网上零售额130923亿元，增 长5.2%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为 ...

12月份，社会消费品零售总额45136亿元，同比增长0.9%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额39654亿元，增长1.7%。2025年，社会消费品零售总额501202 亿元，比上年增长3.7%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额451413亿元，增长4.4%。 按经营单位所在地分，12月份，城镇消费品零售额38429亿元，同比增长0.7%；乡村消费品零售额6707亿元，增长1.7%。2025年，城镇消费品零售额432972 亿元，比上年增长3.6%；乡村消费品零售额68230亿元，增长4.1%。 按消费类型分，12月份，商品零售额39398亿元，同比增长0.7%；餐饮收入5738亿元，增长2.2%。2025年，商品零售额443220亿元，比上年增长3.8%；餐饮 收入57982亿元，增长3.2%。 按零售业态分，2025年，限额以上零售业单位中便利店、超市、百货店、专业店零售额比上年分别增长5.5%、4.3%、0.1%、2.6%；品牌专卖店零售额下降 0.6%。 2025年，全国网上零售额159722亿元，比上年增长8.6%。其中，实物商品网上零售额130923亿元，增长5.2%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为26. ...