相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国消费品零售行业市场竞争状况及发展趋向分析报告》 2025年8月，全国城镇社会消费品零售总额当期值为34386.5亿元，环比增长2.28%，同比增长3.2%； 2025年1-8月全国城镇社会消费品零售总额累计值为281055.8亿元，同比增长4.6%。 2015-2025年全国城镇社会消费品零售总额累计值与累计增长统计图 数据来源：国家统计局 近一年全国城镇社会消费品零售总额当期值与同比增长统计图 数据来源：国家统计局 ...

2015-2025年全国社会消费品零售总额累计值与累计增长统计图 数据来源：国家统计局 近一年全国社会消费品零售总额当期值与同比增长统计图 数据来源：国家统计局 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国消费品零售行业市场竞争状况及发展趋向分析报告》 2025年8月，全国社会消费品零售总额当期值为39667.6亿元，环比增长2.29%，同比增长3.4%；2025年 1-8月全国社会消费品零售总额累计值为323906.2亿元，同比增长4.6%。 ...

（原标题：1-8月阿塞拜疆社会消费品零售总额增长5%） 阿塞拜疆"Report"网9月15日报道，阿塞拜疆国家统计委员会数据显示， 2025年1-8月，阿塞拜疆社会消费品零售总额达515亿马纳特（303亿美元）， 同比增长5%。其中，78.6%为零售贸易额，18%为有偿服务，3.4%为餐饮营业 额。同期，每位消费者月均消费628.4马纳特（369.6美元），同比增加56.8马 纳特（33.4美元）。 ...

Core Insights - Guangzhou achieved a total retail sales of social consumer goods of 723.41 billion yuan in the first eight months of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [1] Group 1: Key Consumption Areas - Key consumption sectors such as home appliances and furniture showed active performance, effectively releasing market potential [1] - Retail sales in the furniture, cultural office supplies, and home appliances and audio-visual equipment categories reached 46.526 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.9 times, 39.8%, and 17.9% respectively [1] Group 2: Automotive Market - The automotive consumption market in Guangzhou continued to recover in the second half of the year, with retail sales of automotive goods reaching 72.488 billion yuan in the first eight months, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [1] - Retail sales of new energy vehicles amounted to 29.331 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [1] Group 3: Jewelry Market - Sales of gold and silver jewelry, which serve as emotional expression products, maintained double-digit growth, with retail sales reaching 12.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, with a nominal year-on-year increase of 3.4%, which is lower than expected. Excluding automobiles, the year-on-year increase is 3.7% [6][13] - For the first eight months, the total retail sales amounted to 323,906 billion yuan, with a nominal year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and a 5.1% increase excluding automobiles [6][13] - The jewelry sector continues to show high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 16.8% in August, driven by self-indulgent consumption and rising gold prices [6][20] - Online retail sales for the first eight months grew by 9.6%, with August online retail sales at 12,993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [6][29] Summary by Sections Overall Retail Data - In August, retail sales of goods increased by 3.6% year-on-year, while dining revenue rose by 2.1% [6][14] - The CPI in August decreased by 0.4%, with food and beverage prices down by 2.5% [6][14] Retail Sales by Category - Essential goods showed weak demand for tobacco and alcohol, possibly due to stricter regulations, while other categories remained relatively stable [6][20] - In August, the retail sales of household appliances increased by 14.3% year-on-year, and furniture sales rose by 18.6% [6][22] Online Retail Data - The online retail sales of physical goods for the first eight months reached 80,964 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, accounting for 28.2% of total retail sales [6][29] - The online sales of food, clothing, and daily necessities saw year-on-year increases of 15%, 2.4%, and 5.7%, respectively [6][29]

Economic Growth - Chengdu's industrial added value increased by 7.8% year-on-year from January to August [1] - The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in Chengdu was 96.4% during the first eight months [1] Industrial Performance - State-owned enterprises' added value grew by 5.0%, while private enterprises saw an increase of 11.1% [1] - Out of 37 major industries, 23 experienced growth in added value [1] - The automotive manufacturing industry grew by 20.9%, computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing increased by 15.8%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing rose by 10.2% [1] Key Industrial Products - Production of new energy vehicles surged by 283.3%, smartwatches increased by 91.6%, and lithium-ion batteries grew by 38.6% [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Chengdu (excluding rural households) increased by 3.3% year-on-year from January to August, with private investment growing by 6.6% [1] - Investment in the primary industry rose by 19.0%, while the secondary industry saw a growth of 21.3%, with industrial investment increasing by 21.7% [1] Consumer Market - Chengdu's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 739.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [2] - Restaurant income was 90.42 billion yuan, growing by 4.9%, while commodity retail reached 648.86 billion yuan, increasing by 6.4% [2] - Notable growth in hot products included gold and silver jewelry at 42.9%, home appliances and audio-visual equipment at 23.7%, and sports and entertainment products at 25.9% [2] Foreign Trade - Chengdu's foreign trade import and export totaled 566.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [2] - Exports amounted to 328.86 billion yuan, growing by 10.6%, while imports reached 238.12 billion yuan [2]

Group 1: Fixed Asset Investment in Jiangsu - Fixed asset investment in Jiangsu province decreased by 7.8% year-on-year from January to August [1] - Infrastructure investment showed growth, increasing by 2.5% year-on-year, contributing 0.4 percentage points to overall investment growth [1] - Large-scale infrastructure projects (over 1 billion) saw a 6.5% increase in investment, driving infrastructure growth by 3.9 percentage points [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The electricity, heat production, and supply sector grew by 34.2%, while railway transportation and water transportation sectors increased by 17.4% and 19.3%, respectively [1] - The manufacturing sector faced challenges, with investment declining by 4.3% year-on-year, although 14 out of 31 major industries experienced growth [1] - Notable growth in automotive manufacturing (13.5%), textile industry (29.7%), and rubber and plastic products (3.9%) [1] Group 3: Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment in Jiangsu decreased by 18.2% year-on-year from January to August [1] - The sales area of commercial housing also fell by 7.6% year-on-year, with the decline accelerating by 2.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 4: Equipment Investment and Consumer Spending - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 4.1% year-on-year, accounting for 19.3% of total investment, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The retail sales of social consumer goods grew by 4.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in the wholesale and retail sector (33.4%) and information technology services (43.8%) [2] - In August, retail sales of major goods under the "old for new" policy increased by 2.2%, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall retail growth [2]

人民财讯9月22日电，据成都发布，2025年1—8月成都经济运行数据出炉。1—8月，全市规模以上工业 增加值同比增长7.8%，其中民营企业增长11.1%。全市固定资产投资(不含农户)同比增长3.3%，其中民 间投资增长6.6%。全市社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.2%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. In the short term, institutional behavior, expectations of incremental policies, and changes in the capital market are the main driving factors. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue in August economic data, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly, with yields expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [97][98] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, and T contracts increased, while that of the TL contract decreased. The open interests of all TS, TF, T, and TL contracts increased [13][17][23][31] - **Performance of Deliverable Bonds**: The prices of some deliverable bonds changed, such as the 30 - year 210005 IB falling 0.14 and the 10 - year 220017 IB rising 0.05 [13] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales reached 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, and fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%. The Sino - US economic and trade leaders held talks and reached a basic framework consensus on some issues [34] - **Overseas News**: US retail sales in August were 732.01 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The initial jobless claims were 231,000, a significant drop. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25% [10][35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds widened slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed slightly. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year contract main contracts widened slightly. The 10 - year and 30 - year contract inter - period spreads widened significantly, the 5 - year contract inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract inter - period spread widened [44][48][52] - **Treasury Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T contract increased significantly [64] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all increased. The yields of treasury bonds due in 1 - 7 years changed between - 1 and 2 basis points, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose by about 0.4 and 1 basis points to 1.80% and 2.10% respectively [68] - **Sino - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US treasury bonds widened slightly [73] - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits, with 1264.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.50% [77] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1708.793 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1190.265 billion yuan, and a net financing of 518.528 billion yuan [81] - **Market Sentiment** - **USD/CNY Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1128, with a cumulative depreciation of 109 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB weakened [86] - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds oscillated upward, and the VIX index increased [91] - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [94] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In August, industrial growth, social retail, and export growth slowed down, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate rose seasonally. Social financing growth declined slightly, and credit growth was weak. The economic recovery has slowed down since July, and the manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and macro - policies need to boost domestic demand [97] - **Overseas Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased significantly, but overall employment growth slowed down. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October increased [97] - **Bond Market Outlook and Strategy**: The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities [98]

报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 社零环比降速，线上稳中有升——2025年8月社零数据点评；报告日期：2025.09.18 报告作 者： 訾猛（分析师），登记编号：S0880513120002 颜慧菁（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040022 庞瑜泽（分析师），登记编号：S0880524010003 报告导读： 8 月社零环比降速，分类型消费数据呈现分化，乡村、餐服环比提速，而城 镇、商品环比降速，另外网上实物累计零售额增长环比提速、线上渗透率稳中有升。 2025 年 8 月社零总额、限额以上社零均环比降速。 国家统计局发布 2025 年 8 月社零数据：单月社零总额同比 +3.4%/ 环比 -0.3pct ，剔除汽车后同比 +3.7%/ 环比 -0.6pct ，限额以上同比 +2.4%/ 环比 -0.4pct ； 2025 年 1-8 月，累计社零总额同比 +4.6%/ 环比 -0.2pct ，剔除汽车后同比 +5.1%/ 环比 -0.2pct ，限额以上同比 +5.2%/ 环比 -0.4pct 。 分地区、分类型消费数据分化，乡村、餐饮服务环比提速。 1 ）分 ...