Group 1: Report Core View - This week, the high-sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level. The near-month spread weakened, the basis weakened month-on-month, the EW spread continued to weaken, the high-sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal and external prices fluctuated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low-sulfur cracking weakened month-on-month but was at a historical low year-on-year, the month spread weakened slightly, the LU internal and external prices fell to 7 - 8 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis stabilized in the second half of the week [5]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory increased, reaching a historical high year-on-year. The floating storage stabilized after destocking, also at a high level year-on-year. The ARA residue inventory increased slightly, at a historical low for the same period. The EIA residue inventory increased slightly at a low level. Fujairah's inventory increased month-on-month, at a low level year-on-year. The high-sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly this week [6]. - Recently, the high-sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened. The cracking is supported by raw material procurement, and the short-term downside space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain a fluctuating pattern. The FU internal and external prices will be viewed in the near-term range, and the 01 contract is bearish at the end. This week, the LU market was still weak. In the fourth quarter, the overseas low-sulfur market is in a pattern of shorting on rallies. Pay attention to the quota usage for internal and external trading [6]. Group 2: Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 377.19 | 374.02 | 367.92 | 365.63 | 366.59 | 0.96 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 401.89 | 398.34 | 393.96 | 394.21 | 397.20 | 2.99 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -2.37 | -2.65 | -2.92 | -3.00 | -3.30 | -0.30 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 613.54 | 617.89 | 607.89 | 614.83 | 617.83 | 3.00 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -211.65 | -219.55 | -213.93 | -220.62 | -220.63 | -0.01 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.69 | 24.14 | 22.57 | 23.69 | 23.78 | 0.09 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 24.70 | 24.32 | 26.04 | 28.58 | 30.61 | 2.03 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 369.25 | 370.01 | 359.76 | 362.82 | 363.59 | 0.77 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 376.00 | 378.01 | 369.96 | 370.44 | 372.42 | 1.98 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 436.14 | 434.16 | 420.01 | 420.94 | 425.95 | 5.01 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 83.06 | 82.66 | 80.60 | 82.11 | 82.70 | 0.59 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.87 | -3.70 | -3.71 | -3.57 | -3.77 | -0.20 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -178.50 | -177.52 | -176.43 | -186.67 | -186.03 | 0.64 | [3][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 368.34 | 369.96 | 361.29 | - | 361.52 | - | | FOB VLSFO | 432.14 | 430.47 | 421.95 | - | 421.67 | - | | 380 Basis | -0.75 | -0.50 | -0.65 | - | -1.00 | - | | High - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.9 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 0.6 | | Low - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 6.3 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 4.3 | -0.6 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2683 | 2694 | 2627 | 2646 | 2647 | 1 | | FU 05 | 2653 | 2658 | 2600 | 2616 | 2612 | -4 | | FU 09 | 2600 | 2608 | 2560 | 2575 | 2566 | -9 | | FU 01 - 05 | 30 | 36 | 27 | 30 | 35 | 5 | | FU 05 - 09 | 53 | 50 | 40 | 41 | 46 | 5 | | FU 09 - 01 | -83 | -86 | -67 | -71 | -81 | -10 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3159 | 3158 | 3064 | 3081 | 3070 | -11 | | LU 05 | 3161 | 3172 | 3099 | 3117 | 3093 | -24 | | LU 09 | 3160 | 3183 | 3110 | 3139 | 3105 | -34 | | LU 01 - 05 | -2 | -14 | -35 | -36 | -23 | 13 | | LU 05 - 09 | 1 | -11 | -11 | -22 | -12 | 10 | | LU 09 - 01 | 1 | 25 | 46 | 58 | 35 | -23 | [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 利多： 2025-10-14燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：贸易商预计，10月来自西方的低硫燃料油套利货到港量将较9月有所增加，这可能短期内持续压制 市场基本面。不过，随着北亚市场长假结束后船东采购活动恢复，新加坡的贸易商预计下游低硫燃料油询盘量 将有所回升；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油382.29美元/吨，基差为37元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为452.5美元/吨，基差为24元/ 吨，现货平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油10月8日当周库存为2061.9万桶，减少164万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏下；偏空 5、主力持仓 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - China may announce the third batch of about 10 million tons of clean oil export quotas at the end of August or early September, with the overall export quota slightly higher than last year but lower than the previous expectation of 14 million tons [6] - High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high in the near - term. The supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly lower than expected, while the seasonal power - generation demand is gradually declining, and the feedstock demand is still supported. Low - sulfur fuel oil spot premiums continue to decline, with supply rising and no specific demand drivers [7] 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Related Data - **FU and LU Futures Data**: On August 28, 2025, the FU主力 price was 2823, up 2 from the previous day; the LU主力 price was 3494, up 9. The FU主力持仓 was 7.9 million hands, down 0.3 million hands; the LU主力持仓 was 7.3 million hands, up 0.2 million hands. The FU仓单 was 119,580 tons, unchanged; the LU仓单 was 35,110 tons, unchanged [3] - **Spread Data**: The FU10 - 1 spread was 30, down 1; the LU10 - 11 spread was - 14, down 14; the LU - FU主力价差 was 671, up 7; the FU10 - 外盘10 spread was 0.9, up 0.7; the LU10 - 外盘09 spread was 3.0, down 2.1 [3] Second Part: Market Analysis - **Important Information**: China may announce the third - batch clean oil export quotas at the end of August or early September, with an estimated volume of about 10 million tons, lower than the previous expectation of 14 million tons [6] - **Market Conditions**: High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high. Bombing of Russian refineries by Ukraine continues, affecting some refinery capacities. Mexican high - sulfur exports are declining, and US sanctions keep Middle - East high - sulfur exports low. High - sulfur power - generation demand is falling seasonally, but feedstock demand is supported. Low - sulfur fuel oil spot premiums are falling, with supply rising and no specific demand drivers [7] - **Additional Notes**: Singapore's high - sulfur Sep/Oct paper - cargo spread is 0.3 - 1.0 USD/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct spread is 1.5 - 2.5 USD/ton. The Chinese low - sulfur market has sufficient supply and stable demand, focusing on near - term quota adjustments and issuance rhythm [8][9] Third Part: Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams of Singapore's high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur price spreads, LSFO - GO spreads, and high - and low - sulfur fuel oil crack spreads [10]