Oil Market - WTI prices were not available due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, while Brent crude for March closed at $63.94 per barrel, down $0.19, a decrease of 0.30% [2][15] - Domestic crude oil production in China for 2025 is projected to be 21,605 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with processing volume at 73,759 million tons, up 4.1% [2][15] - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal decline in diesel and gasoline demand, with oil prices showing no significant driving force, maintaining a volatile trend [2][15] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil (FU2603) rose by 0.12% to 2,538 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) increased by 0.07% to 3,060 yuan per ton [16] - Supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, with Singapore receiving approximately 290-300 million tons in January, up from 260-270 million tons in December [16] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to significantly impact oil prices, with fluctuations expected to follow oil price movements [16][4] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt (BU2602) increased by 0.29% to 3,142 yuan per ton, with concerns over raw material supply easing slightly [17] - The market is currently facing a "weak demand reality" against a backdrop of "strong cost expectations," particularly as winter weather impacts demand [17] Rubber - The main contract for rubber (RU2605) fell by 90 yuan per ton to 15,745 yuan per ton, with NR and BR contracts also experiencing declines [18] - China's rubber tire exports for 2025 are expected to reach 9.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [18] - Inventory levels for natural rubber in Qingdao increased, indicating a seasonal accumulation trend [18] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5,030 yuan per ton, up 0.24%, while EG2605 fell by 1.08% to 3,755 yuan per ton [19] - PX futures closed at 7,106 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.28%, and the market is expected to see some support due to supply reductions [19] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2,207 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $262 to $266 per ton [21] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is under pressure due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [21] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices are under pressure, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [22] - Demand is expected to recover slightly in early January, but inventory levels are anticipated to rise as the month progresses [22] PVC - PVC prices have decreased, with the market experiencing a supply-demand imbalance and overall bearish sentiment [23] - The upcoming end of export tax rebates is expected to increase upward pressure on long-term contracts [23] Urea - Urea futures prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 1,772 yuan per ton, down 1.45% [24] - Market sentiment is declining, with production rates and demand showing signs of weakness ahead of the Spring Festival [24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are fluctuating, with the main contract closing at 1,192 yuan per ton, down 0.33% [25] - The industry is facing pressure from supply and demand dynamics, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the market [25] Glass - Glass futures prices fell significantly, with the main contract closing at 1,070 yuan per ton, down 2.9% [26] - The market is experiencing a supply recovery, but demand remains cautious, leading to a bearish outlook [26]

Group 1: Report Core View - This week, the high-sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level. The near-month spread weakened, the basis weakened month-on-month, the EW spread continued to weaken, the high-sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal and external prices fluctuated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low-sulfur cracking weakened month-on-month but was at a historical low year-on-year, the month spread weakened slightly, the LU internal and external prices fell to 7 - 8 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis stabilized in the second half of the week [5]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory increased, reaching a historical high year-on-year. The floating storage stabilized after destocking, also at a high level year-on-year. The ARA residue inventory increased slightly, at a historical low for the same period. The EIA residue inventory increased slightly at a low level. Fujairah's inventory increased month-on-month, at a low level year-on-year. The high-sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly this week [6]. - Recently, the high-sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened. The cracking is supported by raw material procurement, and the short-term downside space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain a fluctuating pattern. The FU internal and external prices will be viewed in the near-term range, and the 01 contract is bearish at the end. This week, the LU market was still weak. In the fourth quarter, the overseas low-sulfur market is in a pattern of shorting on rallies. Pay attention to the quota usage for internal and external trading [6]. Group 2: Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 377.19 | 374.02 | 367.92 | 365.63 | 366.59 | 0.96 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 401.89 | 398.34 | 393.96 | 394.21 | 397.20 | 2.99 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -2.37 | -2.65 | -2.92 | -3.00 | -3.30 | -0.30 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 613.54 | 617.89 | 607.89 | 614.83 | 617.83 | 3.00 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -211.65 | -219.55 | -213.93 | -220.62 | -220.63 | -0.01 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.69 | 24.14 | 22.57 | 23.69 | 23.78 | 0.09 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 24.70 | 24.32 | 26.04 | 28.58 | 30.61 | 2.03 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 369.25 | 370.01 | 359.76 | 362.82 | 363.59 | 0.77 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 376.00 | 378.01 | 369.96 | 370.44 | 372.42 | 1.98 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 436.14 | 434.16 | 420.01 | 420.94 | 425.95 | 5.01 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 83.06 | 82.66 | 80.60 | 82.11 | 82.70 | 0.59 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.87 | -3.70 | -3.71 | -3.57 | -3.77 | -0.20 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -178.50 | -177.52 | -176.43 | -186.67 | -186.03 | 0.64 | [3][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 368.34 | 369.96 | 361.29 | - | 361.52 | - | | FOB VLSFO | 432.14 | 430.47 | 421.95 | - | 421.67 | - | | 380 Basis | -0.75 | -0.50 | -0.65 | - | -1.00 | - | | High - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.9 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 0.6 | | Low - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 6.3 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 4.3 | -0.6 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2683 | 2694 | 2627 | 2646 | 2647 | 1 | | FU 05 | 2653 | 2658 | 2600 | 2616 | 2612 | -4 | | FU 09 | 2600 | 2608 | 2560 | 2575 | 2566 | -9 | | FU 01 - 05 | 30 | 36 | 27 | 30 | 35 | 5 | | FU 05 - 09 | 53 | 50 | 40 | 41 | 46 | 5 | | FU 09 - 01 | -83 | -86 | -67 | -71 | -81 | -10 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3159 | 3158 | 3064 | 3081 | 3070 | -11 | | LU 05 | 3161 | 3172 | 3099 | 3117 | 3093 | -24 | | LU 09 | 3160 | 3183 | 3110 | 3139 | 3105 | -34 | | LU 01 - 05 | -2 | -14 | -35 | -36 | -23 | 13 | | LU 05 - 09 | 1 | -11 | -11 | -22 | -12 | 10 | | LU 09 - 01 | 1 | 25 | 46 | 58 | 35 | -23 | [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the fuel oil market are affected by multiple factors. The expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals from the West in October may suppress the market in the short term, but the recovery of ship - owner procurement activities in the North Asian market after the long - holiday is expected to boost downstream low - sulfur fuel oil inquiries. - The current situation of the fuel oil market is complex, with a mix of long and short factors. The inventory in Singapore decreased in the week of October 8, which is positive. However, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main positions have different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. - The market sentiment is stable overnight. OPEC + increased production steadily in September, and there is no new news of energy sanctions on Russia for now. The demand side still faces pressure, and the shipping demand for fuel oil is weak in the short term. The prices of FU2601 and LU2511 are expected to fluctuate within specific ranges: FU2601 between 2710 - 2760 and LU2511 between 3200 - 3250 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral. The expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals from the West in October may suppress the market, but downstream inquiries are expected to rise. The basis is neutral as the spot is at par with the futures. The inventory in Singapore decreased by 164 barrels to 2061.9 barrels in the week of October 8, which is positive. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is negative. The main positions of high - sulfur fuel oil are short (with short positions decreasing), and for low - sulfur fuel oil, the main positions changed from short to long, both being negative. The prices of FU2601 and LU2511 are expected to fluctuate in the ranges of 2710 - 2760 and 3200 - 3250 respectively [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - The driving force of the market is the resonance between the supply affected by geopolitical risks and the neutral demand. The risk points include the breakdown of OPEC + internal unity and the escalation of war. The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there are potential negative factors such as the possible intensification of sanctions on Russia and the extension of Russia's fuel oil export restrictions [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The prices of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are 382.29 dollars/ton and 452.5 dollars/ton respectively, with the basis of 37 yuan/ton and 24 yuan/ton. The spot is at par with the futures. The inventory in Singapore on October 8 was 2061.9 barrels, a decrease of 164 barrels compared to the previous period [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - No specific spread data analysis is provided other than the basis information mentioned above. 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory data of Singapore fuel oil shows that on October 8, the inventory was 2061.9 barrels, a decrease of 164 barrels from the previous week. The inventory has fluctuated from July 30 to October 8, with some weeks showing increases and others showing decreases [3][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - China may announce the third batch of about 10 million tons of clean oil export quotas at the end of August or early September, with the overall export quota slightly higher than last year but lower than the previous expectation of 14 million tons [6] - High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high in the near - term. The supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly lower than expected, while the seasonal power - generation demand is gradually declining, and the feedstock demand is still supported. Low - sulfur fuel oil spot premiums continue to decline, with supply rising and no specific demand drivers [7] 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Related Data - **FU and LU Futures Data**: On August 28, 2025, the FU主力 price was 2823, up 2 from the previous day; the LU主力 price was 3494, up 9. The FU主力持仓 was 7.9 million hands, down 0.3 million hands; the LU主力持仓 was 7.3 million hands, up 0.2 million hands. The FU仓单 was 119,580 tons, unchanged; the LU仓单 was 35,110 tons, unchanged [3] - **Spread Data**: The FU10 - 1 spread was 30, down 1; the LU10 - 11 spread was - 14, down 14; the LU - FU主力价差 was 671, up 7; the FU10 - 外盘10 spread was 0.9, up 0.7; the LU10 - 外盘09 spread was 3.0, down 2.1 [3] Second Part: Market Analysis - **Important Information**: China may announce the third - batch clean oil export quotas at the end of August or early September, with an estimated volume of about 10 million tons, lower than the previous expectation of 14 million tons [6] - **Market Conditions**: High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain high. Bombing of Russian refineries by Ukraine continues, affecting some refinery capacities. Mexican high - sulfur exports are declining, and US sanctions keep Middle - East high - sulfur exports low. High - sulfur power - generation demand is falling seasonally, but feedstock demand is supported. Low - sulfur fuel oil spot premiums are falling, with supply rising and no specific demand drivers [7] - **Additional Notes**: Singapore's high - sulfur Sep/Oct paper - cargo spread is 0.3 - 1.0 USD/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct spread is 1.5 - 2.5 USD/ton. The Chinese low - sulfur market has sufficient supply and stable demand, focusing on near - term quota adjustments and issuance rhythm [8][9] Third Part: Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams of Singapore's high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur price spreads, LSFO - GO spreads, and high - and low - sulfur fuel oil crack spreads [10]