汽车/商用车 中通客车（000957.SZ） 客车行业老牌玩家，出口助力业绩迈向新台阶 2026 年 01 月 09 日 投资评级：买入（首次） | 日期 | 2026/1/8 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 11.46 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 12.98/8.89 | | 总市值(亿元) | 67.95 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 67.95 | | 总股本(亿股) | 5.93 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.93 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 226.21 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 2026-01 中通客车 沪深300 ——公司首次覆盖报告 | 邓健全（分析师） 赵悦媛（分析师） | 徐剑峰（分析师） | | --- | --- | | dengjianquan@kysec.cn zhaoyueyuan@kysec.cn | xujianfeng@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790525090003 证书编号：S0790525100003 | 证 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bus industry is experiencing a growth phase driven by both export increases and domestic demand recovery, with leading companies expected to continue releasing performance elasticity [1][2] Export Growth - In 2024, China's medium and large bus exports are projected to reach 45,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 38%, benefiting from demand in the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, as well as an increase in market share for Chinese brands [2][3] - The top five export markets for Chinese buses in 2024 will be the Middle East, Asia, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Latin America, and Africa, accounting for approximately 90% of total exports [4][5] Domestic Market Recovery - Domestic sales of medium and large buses are expected to reach 71,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%, driven by public transport subsidies and the recovery of the tourism market [2][6] - The new round of public transport subsidies will increase the single vehicle subsidy from 60,000 to 80,000, further stimulating domestic demand [2][6] Industry Structure - The bus industry has a high concentration, with the top three companies accounting for over 70% of exports and over 60% of domestic sales [2][5] - The gross profit margin for leading companies, especially in the new energy sector, is significantly higher than that of domestic sales, which will help improve profitability [2][4] New Energy Bus Market - In 2024, global sales of new energy medium and large buses are expected to reach approximately 62,000 units, with a penetration rate of 18%, and domestic penetration reaching 56% [3][4] - The average selling price (ASP) for new energy buses exported from China is around 1.2 to 1.8 million yuan per vehicle, which is 2 to 4 times that of fuel buses [4]