客车行业基本面更新 20251214 摘要 新能源公交客车海外市场迎来爆发式增长，显著提升国内龙头企业销量 及行业盈利能力。宇通等企业通过出口欧洲市场新能源公交车辆实现显 著增长，单台利润从两三万元提升至接近 10 万元。 公交客车电动化进程快于座位客车，中国公交客车电动化率接近 100%，欧洲 30%-50%，而座位客车全球新能源化率较低。未来政策 倾斜将推动座位客车电动化率逐步提高。 各国政策支持新能源公交车辆，如哥伦比亚、巴西、秘鲁等国出台政策 和补贴，推动南美、中东、东南亚等地区新能源汽车渗透率大幅提高。 全球座位客车电动化率仍然很低，未来几年内该领域将迎来显著增长。 中国和欧盟将逐步转向座位客车领域，非欧盟国家也将加速推进公共交 通系统的电动化。 新能源客车相较于传统燃油车型具有更高的毛利率和净利润。欧洲新能 源大巴平均售价可达 200 万至 250 万元，远高于燃油大巴，单台利润 也远超燃油车型。 Q&A 近年来客车行业的发展历程和现状如何？ 客车行业的发展历程可以分为两个阶段。第一个阶段是国内公交客车的新能源 化，从大约 2010 年开始，持续到 2023 年，这一阶段政府对公交客车行业提 供了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong sales performance of Yutong Bus in November 2025, driven by domestic demand recovery and the "old-for-new" policy, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future orders and exports [2][4][6]. Sales Performance - In November 2025, Yutong Bus achieved total sales of 4,058 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% and a month-on-month increase of 33%. The production volume reached 5,188 units, with an inventory increase of 1,130 units, suggesting a strategy of production based on sales [2][3]. - The domestic market is showing signs of recovery, with significant growth in demand for public transport vehicles [3][4]. Vehicle Segmentation - The sales of large and medium buses increased, with November 2025 sales figures of 1,838 large buses, 1,613 medium buses, and 607 light buses. Year-on-year growth rates were 23% for large buses, 29% for medium buses, and a decline of 39% for light buses. The market share of medium buses rose to 39.75%, up by 6.24 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Export Growth - Yutong Bus is entering an accelerated export phase, with expectations for high export sales in December 2025. The company established a KD factory in Pakistan and secured a large order of 400 units. Recent accolades at the Belgium World Bus Expo further enhance its market position [6]. Financial Forecast - The company maintains revenue forecasts of 436 billion, 499 billion, and 567 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 14%, and 14%, respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 49.4 billion, 59.2 billion, and 70.3 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 20%, and 19% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, indicating robust operational efficiency and market demand [3][4][5]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.24 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.41% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 78.98% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.94% [3]. - The non-recurring net profit was 1.07 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 66.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.40% [3]. Sales and Export Growth - Total sales volume in Q3 2025 reached 12,000 units, up 13.38% year-on-year, with an average selling price (ASP) of 840,000 yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17% [4]. - The export ratio was 39%, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.6 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.4 percentage points [4]. - New energy vehicle exports accounted for 27% of total exports, with a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [4]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 24.0%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved sales structure [5]. - The expense ratio was 9.4%, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from economies of scale [5]. - Non-recurring gains totaled 676 million yuan in the first three quarters, accounting for 20.5% of net profit, primarily from changes in fair value of financial assets and asset disposal gains [6]. International Expansion - The company has been actively delivering vehicles overseas, with significant shipments to various countries, including 372 electric buses to Chile and 723 city buses to Morocco, contributing to export growth [7]. Future Outlook - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been raised to 43.6 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 17% and 14% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [8]. - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has also been adjusted upwards, indicating continued strong performance [8].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.2%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.5%, the STAR 50 gained 1.4%, the CSI 1000 was up by 1.5%, the ChiNext Index surged by 2.4%, and the Hang Seng Index climbed by 1.8% [5][4] - The best-performing sectors included power equipment (+2.7%), automotive (+2.4%), electronics (+2.3%), pharmaceutical and biotechnology (+2.1%), and retail (+1.9%). The worst-performing sectors were steel (-0.2%), oil and petrochemicals (-0.1%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+0.0%), real estate (+0.1%), and defense and military industry (+0.2%) [5][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 20,729 billion, with a net outflow of 5.44 billion HKD from southbound funds [5][4] Automotive Industry Insights - The automotive sector report emphasizes three main investment opportunities: robotics, bus exports, and intelligent driving [6] - The market perception of technological advancements and potential profit growth in the automotive sector is considered insufficient [6] - Key drivers include significant changes in the robotics industry, strong bus export volumes, and rapid advancements in applications for autonomous vehicles [6] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Insights - The core viewpoint is that pig farming and cattle breeding remain the main focus, with an emphasis on capturing post-cycle opportunities [7] - The report notes a continuous decline in pig prices, a gradual reversal in the beef cycle, and persistent low milk prices [7] - Key drivers include rising pig prices due to policy shifts towards "anti-involution" and increasing beef prices as traditional demand peaks in Q4 [7] Macro Economic Insights - The macroeconomic report highlights a significant increase in exports to Africa, driven by Chinese companies seeking new markets amid US trade tensions [8] - The report suggests that the high growth in exports may be a result of "export grabbing" [8] - The potential for industrial layout in African economies is noted as a key differentiator from market expectations [8] Fixed Income and Credit Bond Insights - The fixed income report indicates that the positive spread between rental yields and risk-free rates could provide guidance for housing prices, with 2027 expected to be a critical year for identifying the bottom of the real estate market [9] - The report anticipates a "L-shaped" bottoming out of the real estate market rather than a V-shaped rebound, highlighting significant structural differentiation [9] - Key drivers include the rental return rate as a critical reference for when housing prices may bottom out, with expectations for rental yields to reach near a decade-high by the end of 2027 [9]

Core Viewpoint - China's bus exports have experienced continuous growth, achieving a 20-month streak of year-on-year increases from January 2024 to August 2025, with a total export of 48,370 vehicles in the first eight months of 2025, representing a 30.97% increase compared to the same period last year [1][3][33]. Group 1: Export Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the export of large, medium, and light buses reached 48,370 units, with large buses increasing by 46.04% and medium buses by 39.10%, while light buses saw a decline of 15.75% [6][8][19]. - August 2025 saw a total export of 6,649 buses, marking an 8.47% month-on-month increase and a 22.02% year-on-year increase [1][3][6]. - The export of large buses in August was 3,432 units, while medium buses reached 1,537 units, both showing significant year-on-year growth [8][10]. Group 2: Company Rankings - Yutong Bus led the export rankings with 8,630 units in the first eight months of 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of 7.85% [13][14]. - Xiamen King Long maintained the second position with 8,077 units, reflecting a remarkable 71.78% increase compared to the previous year [13][14]. - The top five companies in bus exports for the first eight months of 2025 were Yutong, Xiamen King Long, Xiamen Jinlv, Suzhou King Long Haige, and Zhongtong, with varying growth rates and market shares [14][19]. Group 3: Market Trends - The market for buses remains robust, with significant growth in the export of seat buses and public transport buses, while other categories like school buses showed negligible export volumes [10][25]. - The trend towards electrification in public transport vehicles is creating new opportunities for Chinese bus manufacturers, with many companies reporting substantial year-on-year growth [26][31]. - The overall outlook for bus exports is positive, with expectations for continued growth and potential monthly exports exceeding 7,000 units in the near future [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jinlong Automobile (600686) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 met expectations, with a revenue of 5.405 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.8% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 2025 was 69 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 48.6% [7] - The company achieved a gross margin of 11.8% in Q2 2025, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year and 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by internal cost optimization [7] - The integration of three subsidiaries and a management reshuffle are expected to usher in a new development phase for the company [7] - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027 at 25 billion, 26.8 billion, and 28.5 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 4.4 billion, 6.4 billion, and 8.3 billion yuan [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was 5.405 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year but up 9.8% quarter-on-quarter [7] - Q2 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders was 69 million yuan, up 42.5% year-on-year and 48.6% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 11.8%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points [7] Sales and Market Dynamics - The company sold 11,500 units in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 11.19% in Q1 but a decrease of 12.20% in Q2 [7] - Export sales in H1 2025 reached 14,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.4% [7] Management and Strategic Developments - The completion of the integration of three subsidiaries is expected to enhance operational efficiency [7] - A new management team is anticipated to focus on internal efficiency improvements [7] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 25 billion, 26.8 billion, and 28.5 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 4.4 billion, 6.4 billion, and 8.3 billion yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was driven by export growth, with expectations for high demand in the second half of 2025 [1] - The company achieved a total sales volume of 21,000 units in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, outperforming the industry average [1] - The gross margin improved to 22.9% in Q2 2025, benefiting from an optimized sales structure [1] - The company maintains a strong cash position, with a net operating cash flow of 300 million yuan in Q2 2025 [1] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to reach 42.92 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15.32% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.63 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.39% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.09 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.36 times [1][8]

Core Viewpoint - The bus export market in China has shown a robust performance in July 2025, with significant year-on-year growth across various segments, indicating a strong demand despite the seasonal downturn [1][30]. Group 1: Overall Export Performance - From January to July 2025, China exported a total of 41,721 buses, an increase of 10,238 units compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.52% [1]. - In July 2025 alone, the export volume reached 6,130 units, marking a remarkable year-on-year increase of 55.90%, the highest monthly growth rate of the year [1][3]. Group 2: Segment Performance - All categories of buses (large, medium, and light) experienced positive year-on-year growth in July 2025, with large buses seeing a 97.94% increase, medium buses up by 42.47%, and light buses growing by 6.71% [4][5]. - The export of seating buses and public transport buses continued to grow, with seating buses exporting 3,267 units (up 28.27%) and public transport buses surging to 2,705 units (up 149.54%) [5][7]. Group 3: Company Performance - Yutong maintained its lead in bus exports with nearly 7,000 units exported from January to July 2025, followed closely by Xiamen Jinlong with 6,719 units, which saw a significant increase of 56.18% [8][11]. - Ankai Bus achieved a remarkable growth rate of 146.33%, positioning itself among the top exporters with over 2,000 units exported [8][11]. Group 4: Market Share Dynamics - The market share of several companies increased from January to July 2025, with notable gains for Haige, Ankai, Foton Ouhui, and BYD, indicating a competitive landscape [11]. - In the seating bus segment, Xiamen Jinlong led with 5,385 units exported, followed by Xiamen Jinlv and Yutong, showcasing a diverse competitive field [16][17]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The bus export market is expected to continue evolving, driven by changing market demands and intensifying competition among companies, suggesting potential for further growth and innovation [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The bus industry is experiencing a growth phase driven by both export increases and domestic demand recovery, with leading companies expected to continue releasing performance elasticity [1][2] Export Growth - In 2024, China's medium and large bus exports are projected to reach 45,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 38%, benefiting from demand in the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, as well as an increase in market share for Chinese brands [2][3] - The top five export markets for Chinese buses in 2024 will be the Middle East, Asia, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Latin America, and Africa, accounting for approximately 90% of total exports [4][5] Domestic Market Recovery - Domestic sales of medium and large buses are expected to reach 71,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%, driven by public transport subsidies and the recovery of the tourism market [2][6] - The new round of public transport subsidies will increase the single vehicle subsidy from 60,000 to 80,000, further stimulating domestic demand [2][6] Industry Structure - The bus industry has a high concentration, with the top three companies accounting for over 70% of exports and over 60% of domestic sales [2][5] - The gross profit margin for leading companies, especially in the new energy sector, is significantly higher than that of domestic sales, which will help improve profitability [2][4] New Energy Bus Market - In 2024, global sales of new energy medium and large buses are expected to reach approximately 62,000 units, with a penetration rate of 18%, and domestic penetration reaching 56% [3][4] - The average selling price (ASP) for new energy buses exported from China is around 1.2 to 1.8 million yuan per vehicle, which is 2 to 4 times that of fuel buses [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese bus export market has shown remarkable growth in June 2025, achieving a record high in exports and marking the 18th consecutive month of growth, with a total of 35,591 buses exported in the first half of the year, representing a 29.18% increase year-on-year [1][3][15]. Group 1: Overall Export Performance - In June 2025, a total of 7,335 buses were exported, a year-on-year increase of 28.17%, setting a new monthly record [1][3]. - The export of large buses exceeded 4,000 units for the first time, reaching 4,057 units, a significant increase of 37.06% year-on-year [5][6]. - The overall export volume for large, medium, and light buses continued to show positive growth, with medium buses exporting 1,700 units (up 15.02%) and light buses exporting 1,578 units (up 22.8%) [5][6]. Group 2: Segment Performance - The export of seat buses, public transport buses, and school buses all experienced year-on-year growth, while other bus categories saw declines [8]. - Public transport buses saw a remarkable increase of 73.99% in June, with 3,518 units exported, marking the highest monthly export volume of the year [8][29]. - The export of light seat buses showed the most significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 52.95%, while large seat buses also maintained a positive growth trend [21][27]. Group 3: Company Rankings - Yutong Bus regained its position as the top exporter in the first half of 2025, exporting 6,020 units, despite a year-on-year decline of 7.38% [15][16]. - Xiamen King Long and Xiamen King Travel ranked second and third, with significant year-on-year increases of 56.43% and 73.59%, respectively [15][16]. - Ankai Bus made a notable leap in rankings, achieving a year-on-year growth of 129.48% and moving up to sixth place in the export rankings [15][16]. Group 4: Monthly Export Insights - In June 2025, the top ten exporting companies included Yutong (2,154 units), Xiamen King Long (1,279 units), and Ankai (776 units), with Yutong leading significantly [18][32]. - The public transport bus export volume in June reached 3,518 units, the highest of the year, just shy of the previous December's peak [29][32]. - The export performance of various companies in the bus segment indicates a competitive landscape, with several companies showing strong growth and shifting rankings [15][30].