| 投资要点 | | --- | 公司公告： 公司发布2025H1业绩预告，业绩符合我们预期。归母净利润层面，25H1预计1.16亿元，25Q2 预计0.69亿元，25Q2同环比+42%/+48%。扣非归母净利润层面，25H1预计0.12亿元，25Q2预计 0.22亿元，公司实现五年来首次单季度扣非归母净利润扭亏。 我们维持公司2025-2027年营业收入为250/268/285亿元，同比+9%/+7%/+7%，基本维持2025- 2027年归母净利润为4.4/6.4/8.3亿元，同比+182%/+45%/+28%，对应PE为21/14/11倍。维持公 司"买入"评级。 风险提示： 全球经济复苏不及预期，国内外客车需求低于预期。 出口拉动25Q2销量环比提升。 2025年Q1/Q2公司销量分别为1.10/1.15万辆，同比+11.19%/-12.20%，2025Q2单车净利润为0.60 万元，同环比+62%/+43%。分车型长度来看，2025Q2大中客占总销量比重分别为57%，同 比-2.0pct/+5.0pct。分区域来看，根据中客网数据，2025年H1公司出口销量1.4万辆，同比 +52.4%，新能源出口 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance forecast for H1 2025 indicates a continued upward adjustment in profit margins, with cost reduction and efficiency improvement effects becoming evident [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.16 billion yuan in H1 2025, with Q2 2025 net profit projected at 690 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42% and a year-on-year increase of 48% [1] - The company has successfully turned around its non-recurring net profit for the first time in five years, with a projected non-recurring net profit of 120 million yuan for H1 2025 and 220 million yuan for Q2 2025 [1] - The company’s sales volume in Q2 2025 is expected to increase due to export demand, with total sales of 11,500 units in Q2 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.19% [1] - The integration of three subsidiaries and a new management team is anticipated to lead the company into a new development phase, enhancing internal efficiency and accelerating profit release [1] Financial Forecasts - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 24.987 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8.80% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 4.442 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 181.62% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at 0.62 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.60 [1] - The company’s revenue for 2026 and 2027 is projected to be 26.757 billion yuan and 28.497 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.443 billion yuan and 8.274 billion yuan [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry - The conference call primarily discusses the performance and outlook of Yutong, a company in the bus manufacturing industry, particularly focusing on its sales and export figures for the year. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Annual Data Importance**: Emphasis on the significance of annual data updates over monthly fluctuations, as monthly data can be misleading for long-term projections [1] 2. **Sales Performance**: In April, Yutong's total sales were 3,300 units, representing a year-on-year decline of 27% and a month-on-month decline of 32% [3] 3. **Export Trends**: Exports in April were 880 units, showing a slight year-on-year decrease, while new energy vehicle exports were 135 units, down 30% year-on-year [3] 4. **Optimism for Q2**: Despite a slow start in Q2, there is optimism for a rebound in sales and exports, with expectations that the company will meet its sales targets [4][5] 5. **Long-term Goals**: The company aims for a long-term target of 30,000 units, indicating a positive outlook on domestic and international market opportunities [2] 6. **Profitability Expectations**: Projected profit for the year is between 4.6 billion to 4.7 billion, with a potential dividend distribution similar to or exceeding last year's 3.3 billion [10] 7. **Market Trends**: The bus industry is expected to see a recovery in sales, particularly in the second half of the year, driven by government policies promoting bus replacements [6][7] 8. **Stock Price Influence**: Monthly sales figures may impact short-term stock prices, but long-term growth is anchored in annual performance and strategic goals [9] 9. **Sector Performance**: Yutong is noted to outperform its peers in the bus sector, with a positive trend expected to continue into 2025 [10] 10. **International Market Potential**: The company has a low market share in overseas markets (around 20%), indicating significant growth potential, especially in Europe where bus replacements are underway [11] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The call highlights the cyclical nature of bus sales, with a pattern of higher sales in the first half of the year and a potential surge in the second half [8] - The discussion includes the impact of government policies on the bus industry, particularly regarding public transport and tourism vehicles [6][7] - The importance of historical data in forecasting future performance is emphasized, suggesting that past trends can inform current expectations [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The export performance of China's bus industry in the first four months of 2025 shows significant growth, with a total of 21,447 buses exported, marking a year-on-year increase of 30.81% compared to the same period last year [1][12]. Group 1: Overall Export Performance - In April 2025, a total of 5,736 buses were exported, achieving a year-on-year growth of 26.71% [1][5]. - Since January 2024, China's bus exports have experienced 16 consecutive months of year-on-year growth, indicating a sustained strong market momentum [1][5]. Group 2: Segment Performance - In April 2025, the export figures for different bus types were as follows: large buses 3,218 (down 1.8%), medium buses 965 (up 40.67%), and light buses 1,553 (up 175.35%) [5][6]. - The significant increase in light bus exports is attributed to a low base in the previous year, where only 564 units were exported [5][6]. Group 3: Functional Attributes - In April 2025, the export volumes by function were: seat buses 3,345 (up 18.03%), public buses 1,751 (up 9.44%), school buses 51 (down 30.14%), and other buses 589 (up 2,845%) [7][9]. - The seat bus segment continues to show consistent growth, while public buses have rebounded after a brief decline earlier in the year [7][8]. Group 4: Company Performance - The top five companies in bus exports from January to April 2025 were Xiamen Golden Dragon, Xiamen King Long, Yutong, Zhongtong, and Suzhou King Long Haige, with Xiamen Golden Dragon leading the market [12][13]. - Xiamen Golden Dragon and Xiamen King Long both exported around 3,000 units, with a narrowing gap in their export volumes [12][13]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The competition among the top companies is intensifying, with notable performances from Ankai and BYD, both of which have shown significant year-on-year growth [12][15]. - The overall bus export market is characterized by a "steady improvement with structural differentiation," indicating varying performance across different segments [10][31].

宇通客车 20250509 摘要 • 宇通客车 2024 年营收 372 亿元，同比增长约 38%，净利润 41.2 亿元， 同比增长约 127%，扣非净利润增速更高，显示出强劲的盈利能力恢复。 • 宇通客车 2024 年销售毛利率约为 23%，净利润率约为 11.2%，表明其 盈利能力处于行业领先水平。 • 预计宇通客车在 2025 和 2026 年将保持增长，营收增速预计在 15%至 20%之间，净利润也将取得类似的增速，公司现金流强劲，分红能力较强。 • 2025 年第一季度，中国国内 3.5 米以上客车出口同比增长 32%，新能源 客车出口大幅增长 57%，但宇通客车出口同比下降，可能受季节性因素影 响。 • 全球市场对新能源客车需求强劲，尤其在欧洲和南美，受益于燃油客车置 换周期，宇通等中国企业在技术和成本上具有优势。 • 宇通客车经营现金流持续优于净利润，2024 年经营现金流 72 亿，净利润 42 亿，得益于产业链议价能力和较少大规模投资，未来分红能力预计维持 较强水平。 • 目前宇通客车估值有所下滑，对应 2025 年预期市盈率约 13 倍，股息率 可观，具备投资吸引力，但需注意行业产销、原 ...