证券研究报告·公司点评报告·商用车 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 09 月 01 日 证券分析师 黄细里 执业证书：S0600520010001 021-60199793 huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 孙仁昊 金龙汽车（600686） 2025 年中报点评：25Q2 毛利率同环比提升， 业绩如期兑现 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 19,400 | 22,966 | 24,987 | 26,757 | 28,497 | | 同比（%） | 6.36 | 18.38 | 8.80 | 7.09 | 6.50 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 75.10 | 157.74 | 444.24 | 644.36 | 827.48 | | 同比（%） | 119.41 | 110.05 | 181.62 | 45.05 | 28.42 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was driven by export growth, with expectations for high demand in the second half of 2025 [1] - The company achieved a total sales volume of 21,000 units in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, outperforming the industry average [1] - The gross margin improved to 22.9% in Q2 2025, benefiting from an optimized sales structure [1] - The company maintains a strong cash position, with a net operating cash flow of 300 million yuan in Q2 2025 [1] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to reach 42.92 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15.32% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.63 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.39% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.09 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.36 times [1][8]

Core Viewpoint - The bus export market in China has shown a robust performance in July 2025, with significant year-on-year growth across various segments, indicating a strong demand despite the seasonal downturn [1][30]. Group 1: Overall Export Performance - From January to July 2025, China exported a total of 41,721 buses, an increase of 10,238 units compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.52% [1]. - In July 2025 alone, the export volume reached 6,130 units, marking a remarkable year-on-year increase of 55.90%, the highest monthly growth rate of the year [1][3]. Group 2: Segment Performance - All categories of buses (large, medium, and light) experienced positive year-on-year growth in July 2025, with large buses seeing a 97.94% increase, medium buses up by 42.47%, and light buses growing by 6.71% [4][5]. - The export of seating buses and public transport buses continued to grow, with seating buses exporting 3,267 units (up 28.27%) and public transport buses surging to 2,705 units (up 149.54%) [5][7]. Group 3: Company Performance - Yutong maintained its lead in bus exports with nearly 7,000 units exported from January to July 2025, followed closely by Xiamen Jinlong with 6,719 units, which saw a significant increase of 56.18% [8][11]. - Ankai Bus achieved a remarkable growth rate of 146.33%, positioning itself among the top exporters with over 2,000 units exported [8][11]. Group 4: Market Share Dynamics - The market share of several companies increased from January to July 2025, with notable gains for Haige, Ankai, Foton Ouhui, and BYD, indicating a competitive landscape [11]. - In the seating bus segment, Xiamen Jinlong led with 5,385 units exported, followed by Xiamen Jinlv and Yutong, showcasing a diverse competitive field [16][17]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The bus export market is expected to continue evolving, driven by changing market demands and intensifying competition among companies, suggesting potential for further growth and innovation [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The bus industry is experiencing a growth phase driven by both export increases and domestic demand recovery, with leading companies expected to continue releasing performance elasticity [1][2] Export Growth - In 2024, China's medium and large bus exports are projected to reach 45,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 38%, benefiting from demand in the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, as well as an increase in market share for Chinese brands [2][3] - The top five export markets for Chinese buses in 2024 will be the Middle East, Asia, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Latin America, and Africa, accounting for approximately 90% of total exports [4][5] Domestic Market Recovery - Domestic sales of medium and large buses are expected to reach 71,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%, driven by public transport subsidies and the recovery of the tourism market [2][6] - The new round of public transport subsidies will increase the single vehicle subsidy from 60,000 to 80,000, further stimulating domestic demand [2][6] Industry Structure - The bus industry has a high concentration, with the top three companies accounting for over 70% of exports and over 60% of domestic sales [2][5] - The gross profit margin for leading companies, especially in the new energy sector, is significantly higher than that of domestic sales, which will help improve profitability [2][4] New Energy Bus Market - In 2024, global sales of new energy medium and large buses are expected to reach approximately 62,000 units, with a penetration rate of 18%, and domestic penetration reaching 56% [3][4] - The average selling price (ASP) for new energy buses exported from China is around 1.2 to 1.8 million yuan per vehicle, which is 2 to 4 times that of fuel buses [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese bus export market has shown remarkable growth in June 2025, achieving a record high in exports and marking the 18th consecutive month of growth, with a total of 35,591 buses exported in the first half of the year, representing a 29.18% increase year-on-year [1][3][15]. Group 1: Overall Export Performance - In June 2025, a total of 7,335 buses were exported, a year-on-year increase of 28.17%, setting a new monthly record [1][3]. - The export of large buses exceeded 4,000 units for the first time, reaching 4,057 units, a significant increase of 37.06% year-on-year [5][6]. - The overall export volume for large, medium, and light buses continued to show positive growth, with medium buses exporting 1,700 units (up 15.02%) and light buses exporting 1,578 units (up 22.8%) [5][6]. Group 2: Segment Performance - The export of seat buses, public transport buses, and school buses all experienced year-on-year growth, while other bus categories saw declines [8]. - Public transport buses saw a remarkable increase of 73.99% in June, with 3,518 units exported, marking the highest monthly export volume of the year [8][29]. - The export of light seat buses showed the most significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 52.95%, while large seat buses also maintained a positive growth trend [21][27]. Group 3: Company Rankings - Yutong Bus regained its position as the top exporter in the first half of 2025, exporting 6,020 units, despite a year-on-year decline of 7.38% [15][16]. - Xiamen King Long and Xiamen King Travel ranked second and third, with significant year-on-year increases of 56.43% and 73.59%, respectively [15][16]. - Ankai Bus made a notable leap in rankings, achieving a year-on-year growth of 129.48% and moving up to sixth place in the export rankings [15][16]. Group 4: Monthly Export Insights - In June 2025, the top ten exporting companies included Yutong (2,154 units), Xiamen King Long (1,279 units), and Ankai (776 units), with Yutong leading significantly [18][32]. - The public transport bus export volume in June reached 3,518 units, the highest of the year, just shy of the previous December's peak [29][32]. - The export performance of various companies in the bus segment indicates a competitive landscape, with several companies showing strong growth and shifting rankings [15][30].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in revenue and profit, driven by increased sales in both domestic and international markets, as well as successful integration of acquisitions and management changes [2][6][7]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 116 million yuan for H1 2025, with Q2 expected to be 69 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42% and a year-on-year increase of 48% [2]. - The non-recurring net profit for H1 2025 is projected at 12 million yuan, with Q2 expected to be 22 million yuan, marking the first quarterly profit in five years [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 25 billion, 26.8 billion, and 28.5 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 7%, and 7% [7]. Sales and Market Dynamics - The company’s sales for Q1 and Q2 2025 are 11,000 and 11,500 units, respectively, with a year-on-year change of +11.19% and -12.20% [3]. - Export sales for H1 2025 reached 14,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.4%, with 2,028 units being new energy vehicles [3]. - The company has successfully penetrated international markets, including a recent shipment of 234 customized high-end tourist buses to Saudi Arabia [4]. Strategic Developments - The completion of the acquisition of a 40% stake in Jinlong Bus Company is expected to enhance operational efficiency and accelerate profit release [6]. - The new management team is anticipated to prioritize internal efficiency improvements, which may further boost profitability [6]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 440 million, 640 million, and 830 million yuan, respectively, indicating substantial growth rates of 182%, 45%, and 28% [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance forecast for H1 2025 indicates a continued upward adjustment in profit margins, with cost reduction and efficiency improvement effects becoming evident [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.16 billion yuan in H1 2025, with Q2 2025 net profit projected at 690 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42% and a year-on-year increase of 48% [1] - The company has successfully turned around its non-recurring net profit for the first time in five years, with a projected non-recurring net profit of 120 million yuan for H1 2025 and 220 million yuan for Q2 2025 [1] - The company’s sales volume in Q2 2025 is expected to increase due to export demand, with total sales of 11,500 units in Q2 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.19% [1] - The integration of three subsidiaries and a new management team is anticipated to lead the company into a new development phase, enhancing internal efficiency and accelerating profit release [1] Financial Forecasts - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 24.987 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8.80% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 4.442 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 181.62% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at 0.62 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.60 [1] - The company’s revenue for 2026 and 2027 is projected to be 26.757 billion yuan and 28.497 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.443 billion yuan and 8.274 billion yuan [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry - The conference call primarily discusses the performance and outlook of Yutong, a company in the bus manufacturing industry, particularly focusing on its sales and export figures for the year. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Annual Data Importance**: Emphasis on the significance of annual data updates over monthly fluctuations, as monthly data can be misleading for long-term projections [1] 2. **Sales Performance**: In April, Yutong's total sales were 3,300 units, representing a year-on-year decline of 27% and a month-on-month decline of 32% [3] 3. **Export Trends**: Exports in April were 880 units, showing a slight year-on-year decrease, while new energy vehicle exports were 135 units, down 30% year-on-year [3] 4. **Optimism for Q2**: Despite a slow start in Q2, there is optimism for a rebound in sales and exports, with expectations that the company will meet its sales targets [4][5] 5. **Long-term Goals**: The company aims for a long-term target of 30,000 units, indicating a positive outlook on domestic and international market opportunities [2] 6. **Profitability Expectations**: Projected profit for the year is between 4.6 billion to 4.7 billion, with a potential dividend distribution similar to or exceeding last year's 3.3 billion [10] 7. **Market Trends**: The bus industry is expected to see a recovery in sales, particularly in the second half of the year, driven by government policies promoting bus replacements [6][7] 8. **Stock Price Influence**: Monthly sales figures may impact short-term stock prices, but long-term growth is anchored in annual performance and strategic goals [9] 9. **Sector Performance**: Yutong is noted to outperform its peers in the bus sector, with a positive trend expected to continue into 2025 [10] 10. **International Market Potential**: The company has a low market share in overseas markets (around 20%), indicating significant growth potential, especially in Europe where bus replacements are underway [11] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The call highlights the cyclical nature of bus sales, with a pattern of higher sales in the first half of the year and a potential surge in the second half [8] - The discussion includes the impact of government policies on the bus industry, particularly regarding public transport and tourism vehicles [6][7] - The importance of historical data in forecasting future performance is emphasized, suggesting that past trends can inform current expectations [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Yutong Bus (600066.SH) [1][8] Core Views - Yutong Bus achieved a revenue of 37.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 38%, and a net profit of 4.1 billion yuan, up 127% year-on-year [4][7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year [4] - The export sales volume reached 14,000 units in 2024, a 37.7% increase year-on-year, with export revenue of 15.2 billion yuan, up 46.1% year-on-year [7] - The company maintains a strong market position with a total sales volume of 40,000 large and medium-sized buses in 2024, supported by growing tourism and public transport demand [7] - The report highlights a decrease in various expense ratios due to scale effects and cost control, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 7.2 billion yuan, a 53% increase year-on-year [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 42.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.5% increase, with net profit expected to reach 4.7 billion yuan, a 14.9% increase [6][8] - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 4.73 billion yuan and 5.35 billion yuan, respectively, and introduces a forecast of 6.01 billion yuan for 2027 [8] - The company’s gross margin for domestic and overseas bus products is reported at 19.4% and 28.5%, respectively, with a focus on R&D investment in light bus product development and high-end overseas products [7][8] Market Position and Strategy - Yutong Bus is positioned as a market leader with a solid export growth trajectory, benefiting from cost control and operational efficiency [8] - The company’s capital expenditure remains low, indicating a strategic focus on maintaining profitability while investing in growth areas [7][8] - The report emphasizes the confidence in achieving revenue growth targets for 2025, with an export target of 16,000 units, including 3,300 new energy buses [7][8]