公司25H1 实现收入161.29 亿元/yoy-1.3%，归母净利润19.36 亿元/yoy+15.7%；25Q2 实现收入97.12 亿 元、yoy-0.08%/qoq+51%，归母净利11.8 亿元、yoy+16%/qoq+56%。同时公司延续高分红策略，半年报 分红10 派5 元（含税），25H1 分红占归母净利率57%。我们基本维持盈利预测，考虑公司为出口业务 态势强劲/现金流充足/高股息品种，维持增持评级。 海外新能源客车出口占比提升+经营效率改善，25Q2 贡献显著利润增量25Q2 公司归母净利润同比 +16%，我们认为主要得益于公司的海外新能源出口占比提升且经营效率提高，贡献了明显利润增量： ①量：25H1 公司实现客车销量2.13 万辆/yoy+3.7%，其中大中客销量1.7 万辆/yoy-4.8%，25Q2公司实现 客车销量1.23 万辆/yoy-4%，销量同比有所下滑，我们认为系4-5月出口受到订单正常交付节奏影响，有 所波动。②利：25Q2 公司实现毛利率22.9%/yoy-3.16pct，或系会计政策变更，据我们测算，实际公司 海外新能源客车销售占比提升，且经营毛利率持续提高。费用端 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, driven by increased exports, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment [1][2]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 190 million yuan, up 71.6% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 2.25 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32.7% [1]. - The net profit for Q2 was 110 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 66.1% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 48.8% [1]. Sales and Export Performance - In Q2 2025, the company sold 3,073 buses, a year-on-year decline of 3.6% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.1% [1]. - Export sales exceeded 1,900 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.4%, accounting for 62.0% of total sales [1]. - New energy vehicle exports surpassed 870 units, with a significant year-on-year increase and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 134.0%, representing 45.8% of export sales [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 15.4%, remaining stable year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, the gross margin improved to 15.6%, up 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with a gross profit margin of 11.5% [2]. - The company maintained effective cost control, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 4.1%, 1.2%, 3.1%, and -0.7%, respectively [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is in a period of intensive delivery for overseas orders, including contracts in West Africa, Uzbekistan, and the Bahamas, indicating a growing international market presence [2]. - A share buyback plan of 100 to 200 million yuan was announced, with 6.521 million shares repurchased by July 31, 2025, representing 1.1% of total shares [2]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7.5 billion, 8.77 billion, and 9.91 billion yuan, with net profits of 400 million, 520 million, and 630 million yuan, respectively [3].

Core Viewpoint - The bus industry is experiencing a growth phase driven by both export increases and domestic demand recovery, with leading companies expected to continue releasing performance elasticity [1][2] Export Growth - In 2024, China's medium and large bus exports are projected to reach 45,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 38%, benefiting from demand in the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, as well as an increase in market share for Chinese brands [2][3] - The top five export markets for Chinese buses in 2024 will be the Middle East, Asia, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Latin America, and Africa, accounting for approximately 90% of total exports [4][5] Domestic Market Recovery - Domestic sales of medium and large buses are expected to reach 71,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%, driven by public transport subsidies and the recovery of the tourism market [2][6] - The new round of public transport subsidies will increase the single vehicle subsidy from 60,000 to 80,000, further stimulating domestic demand [2][6] Industry Structure - The bus industry has a high concentration, with the top three companies accounting for over 70% of exports and over 60% of domestic sales [2][5] - The gross profit margin for leading companies, especially in the new energy sector, is significantly higher than that of domestic sales, which will help improve profitability [2][4] New Energy Bus Market - In 2024, global sales of new energy medium and large buses are expected to reach approximately 62,000 units, with a penetration rate of 18%, and domestic penetration reaching 56% [3][4] - The average selling price (ASP) for new energy buses exported from China is around 1.2 to 1.8 million yuan per vehicle, which is 2 to 4 times that of fuel buses [4]

Summary of Yutong Bus Conference Call Company Overview - Yutong Bus reported a revenue of 37.2 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 38% [2] - The net profit for 2024 was 4.12 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of about 127% [2] - The company’s sales gross margin was approximately 23%, and the net profit margin was around 11.2%, indicating strong profitability within the industry [2] Future Growth Projections - Yutong Bus is expected to maintain growth in 2025 and 2026, with revenue growth projected between 15% and 20% [2][5] - The net profit is also anticipated to achieve similar growth rates, supported by strong cash flow and dividend capacity [2][5] Export Performance - In Q1 2025, the export of buses over 3.5 meters in China increased by 32% year-on-year, with a significant 57% growth in new energy bus exports [2][6] - However, Yutong Bus experienced a decline in exports, with a 21% decrease in the export of large and medium-sized buses over 3.5 meters, and a 37% drop in new energy bus exports [2][6] - Seasonal factors may have influenced this decline, as Q1 and Q3 are typically low points in the year [6] Global Market Demand - There is strong global demand for new energy buses, particularly in Europe and South America, driven by the replacement cycle of fuel buses [2][7] - Major global commercial vehicle manufacturers, such as Traton, have maintained stable order levels, indicating limited overlap with Chinese companies like Yutong, which possess advantages in technology and cost [7] Cash Flow and Dividend Capacity - Yutong Bus has consistently reported operating cash flow exceeding net profit, with 2024 operating cash flow at 7.2 billion compared to a net profit of 4.2 billion [2][8] - This strong cash flow is attributed to the company's bargaining power within the supply chain and minimal need for large-scale investments, ensuring robust future dividend capacity [8] Investment Attractiveness - The current valuation of Yutong Bus has declined, with an expected price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 13 times for 2025, alongside a favorable dividend yield [3][9] - Despite the investment attractiveness, potential risks include underperformance in the bus industry, significant raw material price increases, and overseas trade frictions [3][9]

事件：4 月25 日，公司发布2024 年全年及2025Q1 业绩公告，2024 年收入57.3 亿元，同比+35.1%，归 母净利2.5 亿元，同比+258.1%，扣非后归母净利2.1 亿元，同比+181.0%，落于此前业绩预告中枢。 2025Q1 收入16.9 亿元，同环比+32.1%/+12.9%，归母净利0.8 亿元，同环比+80.5%/41.2%，扣非后归母 净利0.7 亿元，同环比+152.1%/+72.4%。 客车出海多点开花，回购及股权激励计划彰显长期信心：3 月末，公司完成智利895 辆电动大巴首批300 台交付，剩余近600 辆预计于二季度集中交付，二季度盈利环比向上表现有望延续。当前看，公司新能 源出口持续突破，成功中标迪拜40 辆高端新能源订单，海外高端订单排产已至6 月份，在手订单充沛保 障全年盈利高增。此外，公司公告回购预案，计划以1-2 亿元自有资金回购股份，上限15 元/股，拟用 于股权激励或员工持股计划。我们认为，此举彰显管理层对公司长期经营向好信心，业绩持续向上值得 期待。 盈利预测：预计2025-2027 年公司营业总收入71.8/79.2/85.0 亿元，归母净利润4. ...