Core Viewpoint - The bus industry is experiencing a growth phase driven by both export increases and domestic demand recovery, with leading companies expected to continue releasing performance elasticity [1][2] Export Growth - In 2024, China's medium and large bus exports are projected to reach 45,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 38%, benefiting from demand in the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America, as well as an increase in market share for Chinese brands [2][3] - The top five export markets for Chinese buses in 2024 will be the Middle East, Asia, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Latin America, and Africa, accounting for approximately 90% of total exports [4][5] Domestic Market Recovery - Domestic sales of medium and large buses are expected to reach 71,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%, driven by public transport subsidies and the recovery of the tourism market [2][6] - The new round of public transport subsidies will increase the single vehicle subsidy from 60,000 to 80,000, further stimulating domestic demand [2][6] Industry Structure - The bus industry has a high concentration, with the top three companies accounting for over 70% of exports and over 60% of domestic sales [2][5] - The gross profit margin for leading companies, especially in the new energy sector, is significantly higher than that of domestic sales, which will help improve profitability [2][4] New Energy Bus Market - In 2024, global sales of new energy medium and large buses are expected to reach approximately 62,000 units, with a penetration rate of 18%, and domestic penetration reaching 56% [3][4] - The average selling price (ASP) for new energy buses exported from China is around 1.2 to 1.8 million yuan per vehicle, which is 2 to 4 times that of fuel buses [4]

Summary of Yutong Bus Conference Call Company Overview - Yutong Bus reported a revenue of 37.2 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 38% [2] - The net profit for 2024 was 4.12 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of about 127% [2] - The company’s sales gross margin was approximately 23%, and the net profit margin was around 11.2%, indicating strong profitability within the industry [2] Future Growth Projections - Yutong Bus is expected to maintain growth in 2025 and 2026, with revenue growth projected between 15% and 20% [2][5] - The net profit is also anticipated to achieve similar growth rates, supported by strong cash flow and dividend capacity [2][5] Export Performance - In Q1 2025, the export of buses over 3.5 meters in China increased by 32% year-on-year, with a significant 57% growth in new energy bus exports [2][6] - However, Yutong Bus experienced a decline in exports, with a 21% decrease in the export of large and medium-sized buses over 3.5 meters, and a 37% drop in new energy bus exports [2][6] - Seasonal factors may have influenced this decline, as Q1 and Q3 are typically low points in the year [6] Global Market Demand - There is strong global demand for new energy buses, particularly in Europe and South America, driven by the replacement cycle of fuel buses [2][7] - Major global commercial vehicle manufacturers, such as Traton, have maintained stable order levels, indicating limited overlap with Chinese companies like Yutong, which possess advantages in technology and cost [7] Cash Flow and Dividend Capacity - Yutong Bus has consistently reported operating cash flow exceeding net profit, with 2024 operating cash flow at 7.2 billion compared to a net profit of 4.2 billion [2][8] - This strong cash flow is attributed to the company's bargaining power within the supply chain and minimal need for large-scale investments, ensuring robust future dividend capacity [8] Investment Attractiveness - The current valuation of Yutong Bus has declined, with an expected price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 13 times for 2025, alongside a favorable dividend yield [3][9] - Despite the investment attractiveness, potential risks include underperformance in the bus industry, significant raw material price increases, and overseas trade frictions [3][9]

事件：4 月25 日，公司发布2024 年全年及2025Q1 业绩公告，2024 年收入57.3 亿元，同比+35.1%，归 母净利2.5 亿元，同比+258.1%，扣非后归母净利2.1 亿元，同比+181.0%，落于此前业绩预告中枢。 2025Q1 收入16.9 亿元，同环比+32.1%/+12.9%，归母净利0.8 亿元，同环比+80.5%/41.2%，扣非后归母 净利0.7 亿元，同环比+152.1%/+72.4%。 客车出海多点开花，回购及股权激励计划彰显长期信心：3 月末，公司完成智利895 辆电动大巴首批300 台交付，剩余近600 辆预计于二季度集中交付，二季度盈利环比向上表现有望延续。当前看，公司新能 源出口持续突破，成功中标迪拜40 辆高端新能源订单，海外高端订单排产已至6 月份，在手订单充沛保 障全年盈利高增。此外，公司公告回购预案，计划以1-2 亿元自有资金回购股份，上限15 元/股，拟用 于股权激励或员工持股计划。我们认为，此举彰显管理层对公司长期经营向好信心，业绩持续向上值得 期待。 盈利预测：预计2025-2027 年公司营业总收入71.8/79.2/85.0 亿元，归母净利润4. ...