Group 1 - The flu season is currently at a high epidemic level in China, with a significant increase in the purchase of cold and flu medications across various regions, particularly in East China where orders for antiviral drugs have surged over 80% [1] - In central regions like Wuhan, the order volume for flu medications has increased by over 95%, with the specific antiviral drug, Marbofloxacin, seeing a 120% increase in orders [1] - The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention has reported that the current flu epidemic is at a high level, prompting discussions on the appropriate use of medications to avoid excessive or inappropriate use [1] Group 2 - Common antiviral medications for flu include neuraminidase inhibitors such as Oseltamivir and Peramivir, as well as RNA polymerase inhibitors like Marbofloxacin, with different drugs having varying indications and treatment durations [2] - Oseltamivir is suitable for a wide range of patients, including those over 2 weeks old, with a standard treatment course of 5 days, extendable for severe or immunocompromised patients [2] - Marbofloxacin is indicated for patients aged 5 and above, requiring only a single dose for treatment [2] Group 3 - Specific groups of children may be considered for preventive antiviral treatment during flu outbreaks, including those with compromised immune systems or those who have not developed sufficient immunity after vaccination [3] - It is recommended that preventive medication be administered within 48 hours of exposure and continued for 7 days after the last exposure, although treatment is still advised even if started later [3] - Light symptom patients are advised to stay home and manage symptoms, while severe cases should receive early empirical antiviral treatment [3]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, three new domestic influenza drugs, including those developed by renowned experts like Zhong Nanshan and Zhang Wenhong, will be launched, marking a significant milestone in China's pharmaceutical industry as it breaks the record of having no original research influenza innovation drugs [2][9]. Summary by Sections New Drug Launches - The new influenza drugs are priced between 180 to 320 yuan, comparable to the existing drug, Marbaviroc (速福达) [3][2]. - These new drugs claim to enhance efficacy, with some promising symptom relief within 18 hours and others offering a single oral dose that reduces fever within approximately 22 hours [2]. Market Challenges - Despite the promising features, the new drugs face significant challenges in replacing established medications like Oseltamivir and Marbaviroc, which have dominated the market [4]. - As of October 2025, the sales of the new domestic influenza drugs totaled less than 10 million yuan, while Oseltamivir and Marbaviroc combined sold nearly 8.5 billion yuan from January to October [5][14]. Industry Insights - Industry experts suggest that the new influenza drugs are largely "fast-follow" products, leading to concerns about market saturation and limited commercial viability [6]. - The new drugs primarily target patients aged 12 and above, while existing drugs like Oseltamivir can be used for younger patients, limiting the new drugs' market reach [12]. Sales Channels - Traditional sales channels, including hospitals and pharmacies, have shown limited contribution to the sales of new drugs, with online sales becoming increasingly important [14][18]. - E-commerce platforms have seen significant sales for the new drugs, with online sales accounting for over 51% of sales for some products [18]. Differentiation Factors - A key differentiating factor for the new drugs is their lower resistance rates compared to older medications, which may provide effective treatment options in cases of resistance to existing drugs [20][22]. - Current data indicates that resistance rates for influenza strains against Oseltamivir remain low, but ongoing monitoring is necessary as the drugs become more widely used [22].

Group 1 - The flu season in Shanghai has started earlier this year, entering the peak period from late November to early January, with the dominant strain being H3N2 [1] - The so-called "K strain" circulating online is a variant of the H3N2 strain, not a new virus, as confirmed by health officials [1] - The current flu virus activity is at a high level, with multiple respiratory diseases posing risks due to fluctuating temperatures [1] Group 2 - Community health service centers in Shanghai are operating seven days a week to optimize testing and early identification of flu cases [2] - Medical institutions are enhancing their capacity for flu treatment, ensuring that fever clinics in secondary hospitals are fully operational and equipped [2] - The city is improving the medical process, including pre-examination and triage, and utilizing "Internet + healthcare" for online consultations [2] Group 3 - It is recommended to get the flu vaccine before the season starts, ideally in October, as it takes 2 to 4 weeks to develop antibodies [3] - The flu vaccine can provide 70%-80% protection against severe illness, even if administered during the peak season [3] - Antiviral medications are categorized into two types: neuraminidase inhibitors and RNA polymerase inhibitors, with the best effect when taken within 48 hours of infection [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of the National Medical Insurance Drug List and the Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug List signifies the successful completion of the annual national medical insurance drug negotiation process, emphasizing the goals of "filling gaps, encouraging innovation, and optimizing structure" [1][10]. Group 1: Drug List Adjustments - A total of 114 new drugs were added to the list, with 111 being newly launched within the last five years, representing 97.3% of the additions, including 50 first-class innovative drugs [2][11]. - The total number of drugs in the directory has increased to 3,253, with 1,857 Western medicines and 1,396 traditional Chinese medicines, significantly enhancing the coverage for critical areas such as cancer, chronic diseases, and rare diseases [2][11]. - The new directory includes drugs that address gaps in basic medical insurance, such as treatments for triple-negative breast cancer, pancreatic cancer, and lung cancer, as well as medications for rare diseases and chronic conditions [2][11]. Group 2: Support for Innovation - The negotiation success rate for this year reached 88.19%, the highest in recent years, with 127 drugs participating and 112 achieving success, indicating a strong support for genuine innovation [4][13]. - The selection process for drugs involved strict evaluations, with only 41.48% of the 331 drugs reviewed passing the expert assessment, reflecting a focus on high-quality submissions [5][14]. - The pricing assessment for drugs is based on their clinical value, with a higher willingness to pay for drugs that demonstrate significant clinical benefits, aligning with the principle of "paying more for quality life" [6][14]. Group 3: Commercial Health Insurance - The first version of the commercial health insurance innovative drug directory includes 19 high-priced innovative drugs, aimed at establishing a multi-tiered insurance system [8][16]. - The directory is designed to enhance the attractiveness of insurance products, potentially increasing the insurance uptake and improving the profitability structure of insurance companies [9][17]. - The commercial insurance directory complements the basic medical insurance list, facilitating a clearer distinction in coverage and promoting the development of a multi-layered medical insurance system [9][17].

Core Insights - The new National Medical Insurance Directory has added 114 new drugs, surpassing last year's addition of 91, with 50 being first-class innovative drugs, achieving an overall success rate of 88%, an improvement from 76% in 2024 [1][2] Group 1: New Drug Additions - The total number of drugs in the directory has increased to 3,253, significantly enhancing coverage for key areas such as oncology and chronic diseases [2] - The directory includes 38 global innovative drugs and 50 first-class innovative drugs, marking a historical high for new additions [2] - Notable inclusions are the first globally approved red blood cell maturation agent, Rotecip, for treating lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes, and the first domestically developed IL-4Rα antibody drug, Kangyueda, for multiple indications [3][4] Group 2: Oncology Innovations - Several innovative oncology drugs have been added, including Tagolizumab, the first PD-L1 monoclonal antibody approved for nasopharyngeal carcinoma, and non-covalent BTK inhibitor, Jebatib, for relapsed mantle cell lymphoma [4][5][6] - ADCs (antibody-drug conjugates) have gained attention, with new entries like Lukanasatuzumab and Ruikangquzuzumab, targeting advanced breast cancer and non-small cell lung cancer [7][8] Group 3: Chronic Disease Treatments - The directory has included innovative drugs for chronic diseases, such as Novartis' PCSK9 mRNA interference drug for cholesterol management, addressing patients who cannot reach LDL-C targets [14] - AstraZeneca's biologic drug Benralizumab for severe eosinophilic asthma has also been added, providing targeted treatment options for patients [15][16] Group 4: Influenza Treatments - The new directory has incorporated two domestic antiviral drugs for influenza, Masurashave and Angladiv, which have shown promising clinical results in reducing symptoms and viral load [17]

Core Viewpoint - The current flu season in China is experiencing a significant rise in cases, with 17 provinces reporting high levels of flu activity and a positive rate of 51% among flu-like cases in emergency departments [1][11]. Group 1: Flu Activity and Trends - Since late October, flu activity in Beijing has been on the rise, entering an epidemic phase by mid-November, approximately four weeks earlier than the previous year [2]. - Nationwide, there have been 1,541 reported outbreaks of flu-like cases, nearly 50 times higher than the same period last year, with 80% occurring in primary and secondary schools [11]. Group 2: Severity and Risk of Cases - Approximately 10% of flu cases may require hospitalization, with a small percentage classified as critical cases needing intensive care [6]. - The overall mortality rate for flu is less than 0.1%, but high-risk groups, particularly those requiring hospitalization, need close monitoring [6]. Group 3: Virus Types and Characteristics - The dominant strain this winter is the H3N2 subtype of the influenza A virus, accounting for over 95% of cases, with some circulation of H1N1 and influenza B viruses [8]. - Flu is characterized by strong transmissibility and severe symptoms, primarily affecting the winter and spring seasons [8]. Group 4: Vaccination and Prevention - Vaccination is recommended before the flu season peaks, ideally in September or October, to reduce infection risk and severity [22]. - The effectiveness of the flu vaccine can vary based on the accuracy of predictions regarding circulating strains, with protection rates potentially exceeding 60% if predictions are accurate [25][27]. Group 5: Treatment and Management - The optimal time for antiviral treatment is within 48 hours of symptom onset, as antiviral medications are most effective when administered early [29]. - The flu season is expected to continue for several weeks, with northern regions nearing a peak and southern regions still on the rise [34][35].

Core Insights - The flu virus activity in China is on the rise, with a positivity rate of 51.1% among flu-like cases in sentinel hospitals, indicating a high level of flu epidemic across the country [1][2] - The peak of the flu season is expected to occur in mid-December, with a significant increase in reported cluster outbreaks in schools compared to the previous season [2] Group 1: Flu Activity and Monitoring - 17 provinces in China are experiencing high levels of flu activity, while the remaining provinces are at moderate levels [2] - The positivity rate for flu virus detection among patients visiting emergency departments has reached 51%, which is below the highest levels recorded in the past three years [2] - The flu positivity rate among children aged 5 to 14 is notably higher than in other age groups, indicating a specific vulnerability in this demographic [1] Group 2: Health Recommendations and Vaccination - High-risk groups, including the elderly, chronic disease patients, children, and pregnant women, are advised to minimize time spent in crowded and enclosed spaces and to enhance personal health protection [2] - There is a call for organizations to facilitate flu vaccination for high-risk populations through centralized arrangements and funding, with healthcare institutions offering on-site vaccination services [2] - Schools and childcare institutions are urged to strengthen health monitoring and environmental sanitation, particularly in light of temporary school closures in areas like Hangzhou due to flu outbreaks [2] Group 3: Treatment and Medication - Current flu strains, particularly the H3N2 subtype, remain sensitive to antiviral medications such as oseltamivir, and patients are encouraged to use these treatments under medical guidance [2] - New antiviral drugs, including domestic options, are becoming available, providing patients with more choices for flu treatment [2]

Core Insights - The demand for antiviral drugs has surged during the flu season, with significant increases in sales of Oseltamivir and Marbofloxacin, alongside the recent market entry of three new domestic antiviral drugs [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Demand and Sales Growth - The percentage of flu-like cases in China has risen, with a reported 40.9% positivity rate for flu tests during the 47th week of the year [2] - Sales data from various e-commerce platforms indicate a dramatic increase in antiviral drug demand, with Oseltamivir sales up 4.5 times and Marbofloxacin up 5 times from the previous week [3] - Overall sales of flu-related medications increased by 242% from November 24 to November 30 compared to the previous week, with specific products like Marbofloxacin and Oseltamivir seeing sales increases of 230% and 310%, respectively [3] Group 2: New Drug Approvals and Market Competition - Three new domestic antiviral drugs were approved in 2023, marking a significant increase in competition within the flu medication market [6][8] - The current market is primarily dominated by Oseltamivir and Marbofloxacin, but the entry of new competitors is reshaping the competitive landscape [8][9] - The sales of Oseltamivir reached 59 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining a leading market position despite the influx of generic alternatives [5][9] Group 3: Future Market Trends - The rapid growth of Marbofloxacin is notable, with a projected sales increase of over 758% in 2024, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9] - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify as more domestic companies enter the antiviral drug market, necessitating differentiation through innovation and market segmentation [10]

Core Insights - The flu medication market is undergoing a significant transformation, with Oseltamivir losing popularity and Marboxilavir rapidly gaining traction as a preferred treatment option [2][14]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Oseltamivir, once the dominant flu treatment since its introduction in 1999, is experiencing a decline in market interest, with sales dropping significantly from over 6.5 billion yuan in 2019 to approximately 206.8 million yuan in 2020, a decrease of 65.1% [5][7]. - In contrast, Marboxilavir, which was approved in Japan in 2018 and in China in 2021, is witnessing a surge in demand, with sales reaching 510 million yuan in 2024 and capturing 10.8% of the market share [9][11]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the flu medication market is intensifying, with over 120 companies producing flu medications in China, including more than 70 competitors for Oseltamivir alone [8][16]. - New entrants like Marboxilavir are disrupting the market dynamics, leading to a potential dual dominance scenario alongside Oseltamivir, while other new drugs like Baloxavir and Mavrilavir are also emerging [16][17]. Group 3: Consumer Preferences - Marboxilavir's unique advantage of requiring only a single dose for treatment enhances patient compliance, making it particularly appealing for busy individuals and parents managing children's medication [11][12]. - Clinical studies indicate that Marboxilavir offers faster symptom relief compared to Oseltamivir, with an average symptom alleviation time of 53.7 hours versus longer durations for Oseltamivir [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The shift in market preference from Oseltamivir to Marboxilavir is expected to drive further research and development in the flu medication sector, fostering innovation and the introduction of more effective and safer treatments [18]. - Companies are encouraged to enhance their core competencies, optimize production processes, and leverage technologies like AI and big data to improve drug development and market strategies [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent emergence of the H3N2 influenza virus has led to increased public concern, with symptoms reported to be more severe than those of a common cold, as indicated by the China CDC's report showing over 90% of positive samples being H3N2 [1] Group 1: Differentiating Between Common Cold and Influenza - Influenza symptoms typically appear suddenly, including high fever, headache, sore throat, cough, significant fatigue, and muscle aches, while common cold symptoms develop more gradually and are generally milder [2] - High fever (above 39°C) lasting 3-5 days is common in influenza, whereas common cold fever is usually below 38°C and resolves within 1-2 days [2] - Early identification of symptoms is crucial for appropriate treatment and resource management [2] Group 2: Recovery Timeline and Potential Aftereffects - Antiviral treatment is most effective when administered within 48 hours of symptom onset, with medications like Oseltamivir and Marbofloxacin recommended [3] - Influenza itself does not typically leave aftereffects, but delayed treatment can lead to serious complications such as pneumonia or myocarditis, which may have long-term health impacts [3] - Healthy adults usually recover from typical influenza symptoms within a week, but some may experience lingering cough and fatigue for up to two weeks [3] Group 3: Preventive Measures for H3N2 Influenza - Vaccination is strongly recommended as the most effective and economical preventive measure against influenza [4][5] - The composition of the flu vaccine is adjusted annually to match circulating strains, enhancing its effectiveness [5] - Public health recommendations include wearing masks in high-risk areas and isolating when symptomatic to prevent the spread of the virus [5]