记者丨季媛媛 闫硕 编辑丨包芳鸣 "不幸中招。"11月24日清晨，阿橙（化名）一觉醒来，便感到喉咙干涩、全身乏力。还没到中午，她就 隐约察觉体温升高，与前些日子的风寒感冒症状相比，"这种感觉截然不同"。 阿橙立刻在电商平台上订购了流感检测试剂和抗病毒药物奥司他韦，她并非今冬首位采取此类措施的 人。 11月21日，中国疾控中心指出，目前我国流感活动已进入快速上升期，多数省份的流感活动水平已达到 中等程度，个别省份甚至已达到高度流行水平。据央视消息，数据显示，奥司他韦近七天销量增长率达 237%，玛巴洛沙韦上涨达180%。 2025年的流感季较往年提前到来。 （资料图） 流感药物需求激增 11月以来，国家疾控局连续三次发布"流感橙色预警"：我国北方省份哨点医院流感样病例占比已超过 12%，较2020年—2023年同期均值高出两至三倍；实验室监测结果显示，目前流行的病毒株主要为甲型 H3N2亚型，乙型Victoria系和甲型H1N1并存，病毒抗原变异显著，人群普遍易感；H3N2亚型以呼吸道 症状为主（如剧烈咳嗽、鼻塞），发热比例较高，更易引发肺炎等并发症。 有临床专家指出，从流感的增长趋势分析，目前已步入流感季，但 ...

记者丨 季媛媛 闫硕 编辑丨包芳鸣 "不幸中招。"11月24日清晨，阿橙（化名）一觉醒来，便感到喉咙干涩、全身乏力。还没到中 午，她就隐约察觉体温升高，与前些日子的风寒感冒症状相比，"这种感觉截然不同"。 阿橙立刻在电商平台上订购了流感检测试剂和抗病毒药物奥司他韦，她并非今冬首位采取此类 措施的人。 11月21日，中国疾控中心指出， 目前我国流感活动已进入快速上升期，多数省份的流感活动 水平已达到中等程度，个别省份甚至已达到高度流行水平 。据央视消息， 数据显示，奥司他 韦近七天销量增长率达237%，玛巴洛沙韦上涨达180%。 2025年的流感季较往年提前到来。 这一趋势导致患者临床检测工作的压力较之前显著增加。京东到家快检数据显示，11月17日至 11月23日，呼吸道细菌病毒检测订单量环比前7天增长了66%，阳性检出率升至68.2%。其 中，专业护士上门的呼吸道细菌病毒检测服务订单量同比增长近一倍。相关互联网医院发热门 诊的单周问诊量环比增长51%。 另据京东买药平台数据，11月17日至11月23日，抗流感药品需求激增：奥司他韦销量环比增长 4.5倍，速福达销量环比增长5倍，流感检测试剂销量环比增长4.8倍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The flu poses significant public health risks, especially during the peak travel season coinciding with the flu season, necessitating effective antiviral treatments and preventive measures [1][5][7]. Market Demand - The optimization of China's exit and entry policies has led to a surge in outbound travel, with projections indicating over 155 million outbound trips by 2025, contributing to the global spread of flu [5]. - The World Health Organization estimates around 1 billion seasonal flu cases annually, resulting in 290,000 to 650,000 deaths, highlighting the severity of flu outbreaks [5]. - The overlap of the winter-spring travel peak and flu season raises concerns for public health systems, particularly for vulnerable populations [5][6]. Treatment Options - Antiviral treatment is crucial for flu management, with the most effective results achieved within 48 hours of symptom onset [1][7]. - The primary antiviral medications available in China include Oseltamivir and Baloxavir Marboxil, both effective against influenza A and B [1][8]. - The expert consensus emphasizes vaccination as the primary preventive measure against flu, particularly for high-risk groups [7][8]. Competitive Landscape - The flu medication market in China has become increasingly competitive, especially after the expiration of Oseltamivir's patent in 2016, leading to a surge in generic versions [2][9]. - As of November 2025, there are nearly 140 approved products related to Oseltamivir in China, indicating a highly saturated market [9]. - Baloxavir Marboxil, a second-generation flu treatment, has gained market traction since its approval in 2021, with sales expected to exceed 1.5 billion yuan by 2024 [10][11]. Market Growth Potential - The Chinese flu medication market was valued at 10.74 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 197.51% [11]. - Projections indicate a compound annual growth rate of 20.2% from 2024 to 2028, with the market potentially reaching 26.9 billion yuan by 2028 [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing risk of influenza transmission in China due to the overlap of the flu season and the peak travel period for outbound tourism, highlighting the importance of antiviral treatments and vaccination for public health [1][3][4]. Group 1: Influenza Overview - Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by influenza viruses, with seasonal outbreaks primarily from October to February in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - The flu season coincides with a peak in outbound tourism from China, which is expected to exceed 155 million trips by 2025, increasing the risk of global flu transmission [3]. Group 2: Antiviral Treatments - The current antiviral medications available in China include neuraminidase inhibitors, RNA polymerase inhibitors, and hemagglutinin inhibitors, with oseltamivir and baloxavir marboxil being the preferred treatments [1][6]. - The importance of initiating antiviral treatment within 48 hours of symptom onset is emphasized, as it significantly improves treatment outcomes [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Following the expiration of Roche's oseltamivir patent in 2016, there has been a surge in generic versions, leading to intense market competition, with nearly 140 related drug approvals in China [2][7]. - Baloxavir marboxil, a second-generation flu treatment, has gained market traction since its approval in 2021, with sales expected to exceed 1.5 billion yuan by 2024 [8][9]. Group 4: Market Growth Potential - The Chinese antiviral drug market for influenza was valued at 10.74 billion yuan in 2023, showing a year-on-year growth of 197.51% [9]. - Projections indicate a compound annual growth rate of 20.2% from 2024 to 2028, with the market potentially reaching 26.9 billion yuan by 2028 [9].

Core Viewpoint - Dongyangguang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is advancing towards its Hong Kong IPO while facing challenges with its core product, Oseltamivir Phosphate capsules, which have been suspended from the Zhejiang medical insurance network, potentially impacting revenue significantly [1][6][8]. Group 1: Company Overview - Dongyangguang Pharmaceutical is a comprehensive pharmaceutical company engaged in the research, production, and commercialization of drugs, focusing on infection, chronic diseases, and oncology [3]. - The company plans to list on the Hong Kong main board through a merger with its subsidiary, Dongyangguang Changjiang Pharmaceutical, without raising new funds [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue for Dongyangguang Pharmaceutical from 2022 to 2024 is projected to be approximately CNY 3.814 billion, CNY 6.386 billion, and CNY 4.019 billion, respectively [4]. - The company's net profit for the same period is expected to be CNY -1.416 billion, CNY 1.014 billion, and CNY 24.8 million, indicating a significant fluctuation in profitability [4]. Group 3: Product and Market Dynamics - Oseltamivir Phosphate is the company's core product, accounting for 81.2%, 86.9%, and 64.2% of annual revenue from 2022 to 2024 [8]. - The product's revenue is under pressure due to increased competition, with market share dropping from 64.8% in 2023 to 54.8% in 2024, a decline of 10 percentage points [10][12]. Group 4: Market Challenges - The suspension of the "Kewai" Oseltamivir Phosphate capsules from the medical insurance network may adversely affect market share and sales revenue [6][8]. - The competitive landscape includes over 120 companies in the domestic antiviral drug market, intensifying the pressure on Dongyangguang Pharmaceutical [8][12]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The company is diversifying its portfolio, with ongoing developments in diabetes and oncology treatments, which may provide growth opportunities beyond its core antiviral products [12].