Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), highlighting that the core CPI increased by only 0.1% month-on-month in May, with a year-on-year rate of 2.8%, indicating a controlled inflation environment despite tariff impacts [1][5]. Group 1: CPI and Inflation Trends - The total CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and rebounded to 2.4% year-on-year, both figures falling short of market expectations [1]. - Core goods saw a month-on-month growth drop from 0.1% to zero, with significant declines in new and used car prices, indicating that tariffs have not yet been fully passed on to consumers [2]. - Certain categories, such as household appliances (+4.3%) and toys (+2.2%), experienced notable price increases, but these were insufficient to elevate overall inflation [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Business Strategy - Businesses have not significantly raised prices despite supply chain disruptions, as they are managing inventory levels and awaiting potential tariff reductions [2]. - Retailers are selling off pre-tariff inventory at lower prices, absorbing some inflationary pressures by compressing profit margins [2]. Group 3: Service Inflation and Energy Prices - The supercore service inflation, excluding rent, saw a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, with declines in airfares and hotel prices suggesting reduced consumer spending on leisure activities [3]. - Gasoline prices fell by 2.6% in May, contributing to a decrease in overall inflationary pressures, although recent oil price rebounds may introduce future uncertainties [3]. Group 4: Future Inflation Expectations - The expectation is for a potential price increase in the coming months as businesses begin to pass on costs, particularly among large retailers like Walmart [4]. - Unlike the broad inflation seen in 2021-2022, the anticipated price increases are characterized as structural and one-time events rather than a result of an overheated economy [4]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve views the moderate inflation data positively but is unlikely to make significant policy changes based on a single month's data, preferring to analyze additional data sets before deciding on interest rate adjustments [5]. - The upcoming June FOMC meeting may see a slight upward revision in inflation forecasts, with a more optimistic growth outlook compared to March, potentially leading to a hawkish stance from Fed Chair Powell [5].

中金研究 美国5月核心CPI季调环比仅上涨0.1%，同比维持在2.8%，总CPI环比上涨0.1%，同比反弹至 2.4%，均低于市场预期。这份报告表明，企业在将关税成本转嫁给消费者方面依然保持克制，这可 能是因为企业目前仍在自行承担关税成本，或者提前囤货带来的库存仍可用于应对关税。往前看， 我们倾向于未来几个月会看到一轮物价上涨，但与2021-2022年不同，此轮涨价更具有结构性和一次 性特征，并非全面通胀。对于美联储而言，温和的通胀数据是个好消息，但我们认为官员们也不会 因为单个月的数据就做出重大决策，在重启降息之前，他们更倾向于再多看几组通胀数据。 点击小程序查看报告原文 市场目前最关注的就是关税是否会对通胀造成影响，而5月CPI报告中几乎没有体现关税的向下传导。 从数据上看，核心商品5月环比从上月0.1%降至零增长。其中，新车环比下跌0.3%，二手车下跌0.5%， 特朗普政府针对进口汽车25%的关税目前仍未体现在整车零售端。家具与床具（-0.8%）、服装 （-0.4%）环比同样在下跌，即便针对于小包裹进口的关税已明显抬升。 不过，一些受关税影响较大的 品类价格仍出现显著上涨 。 比如家用电器（+4.3%） ...