Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, trading around $111,330, with market sentiment divided and lacking a clear trend signal [1][3]. Technical Indicators Analysis - Short-term moving averages show a slight upward trend, while long-term moving averages remain downward [4]. - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating low volatility and indecisive market sentiment [4]. - A bullish engulfing pattern has appeared on the daily chart, but low trading volume suggests limited buying interest [4]. - The MACD shows increased momentum, indicating a slight advantage for bulls in the short term [4]. Key Position Contest - The $114,000 resistance level is a focal point for both bulls and bears, with analysts warning that any rebound below this level could be a bull trap [5]. - The $108,000 support level is crucial; if defended, it may stabilize Bitcoin's price and potentially restore an upward trend [5]. - A noticeable decline in trading volume near resistance indicates insufficient buying momentum, adding uncertainty to the market [5]. Historical Seasonal Patterns - September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -3.33% from 2017 to 2022 [6]. - On September 8, Bitcoin has a 72% probability of closing lower, with an average decline of 1.30%, making it one of the worst trading days of the year [6]. - The performance on September 8 may predict the month's overall trend, with a 75% chance of a higher monthly close if it rises on that day [6]. Macro Environment Impact - The cryptocurrency market is significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors, including U.S. interest rates and tariff uncertainties [7]. - Key U.S. employment data could impact interest rate expectations, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [7]. - Rising UK bond yields raise concerns about inflation and currency devaluation, which could either drive funds into cryptocurrencies or lead to a decline in risk assets [7]. Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Recent market liquidity has decreased due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday, but significant movements are occurring beneath the surface [8]. - A whale has sold approximately $4 billion worth of Bitcoin and shifted funds into Ethereum [8]. - The launch of Bitcoin ETFs has attracted institutional funds, with current holdings around 1.4 million Bitcoins [8][9]. Operational Strategy Recommendations - A cautious trading strategy is advised, focusing on key support and resistance levels for short-term trades [10]. - Long positions can be considered near $109,000 with a stop-loss at $108,500, targeting $110,500 [10]. - Short positions can be initiated near $112,500 with a stop-loss at $113,000, targeting $110,000 [10]. Ethereum Market Analysis - Ethereum is currently trading at $4,300, showing signs of a bottoming phase despite an overall bearish structure [11]. - A bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart suggests potential for a rebound, but the price remains under pressure from moving averages [11]. - Short-term trading strategies should focus on selling at highs and buying on dips, with specific entry and exit points outlined [11].

Core Viewpoint - The historical "cycle" of Bitcoin is showing signs of being broken, which could significantly impact how investors assess cryptocurrency price trends and potential entry points [1] Group 1: Bitcoin Cycle Overview - The Bitcoin cycle typically revolves around a key event known as "halving," which occurs approximately every four years and reduces mining rewards by half, limiting the total supply to 21 million Bitcoins [1] - Historically, Bitcoin prices tend to rise in the months following a halving event, reaching new all-time highs before experiencing a significant drop of about 70% to 80%, leading to a prolonged period of low prices known as "crypto winter" [2][3] Group 2: Changes in the Bitcoin Cycle - In the current cycle, Bitcoin reached a historical high of over $73,000 in March 2024, approximately one month before the halving, which deviates from the previous pattern where new highs were typically set 12-18 months post-halving [3] - The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. has been a major factor driving Bitcoin's price, attracting significant institutional investment and altering traditional cycle dynamics [3][4] Group 3: Factors Influencing the Cycle - The introduction of ETFs has brought in wealthy investors interested in long-term holdings, while other market factors have also evolved [4] - A more favorable macroeconomic environment and regulatory landscape are emerging, with indications that the likelihood of interest rate decreases is higher than increases, which could reduce the risk of future market crashes [5] Group 4: Current Stage of the Cycle - Historically, significant price appreciation for Bitcoin occurs between 500 to 720 days post-halving, suggesting potential price acceleration between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026 [6] - The latest historical high for Bitcoin was recorded on July 14, when it surpassed $123,000, indicating a shift in the traditional four-year cycle [6] Group 5: Market Volatility and Future Predictions - The typical 70%-80% price drop following a halving may no longer be applicable, with the current cycle showing a maximum drawdown of approximately 26% [7] - Market experts believe that while a 30% to 50% correction may occur due to macroeconomic shocks or regulatory surprises, these corrections are expected to be shorter and less severe than in previous cycles [7]