1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel demand has officially entered the off - season. Hot - rolled coil inventory risk still exists, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. Although demand is still weak in the short term, it is expected to turn around with policy implementation and macro - environmental changes [2]. - For the iron ore market, due to environmental protection restrictions and declining steel mill profits, iron ore demand continues to weaken, and inventory pressure remains. After the macro - events are realized, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, and the short - term ore price is still running weakly [5]. - For the manganese silicon and silicon iron market, the black - sector pricing has recently returned to fundamentals. The market is trying a "negative feedback" trade, but it is considered a temporary shock with limited downside space. It is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long rather than short. The subsequent upward height depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies [9][10]. - For the industrial silicon market, supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is stable. The price is expected to consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For the polysilicon market, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. The price increase depends on the actual progress of the platform company [15]. - For the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and local prices can be flexibly adjusted. For the soda ash market, it is expected to maintain a stable and volatile operation in the short term [18][19]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3034 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2399 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 59467 lots. The Tianjin aggregate price of rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregate price remained unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3245 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1490 tons, and the main - contract open interest increased by 240 lots. The Lecong aggregate price of hot - rolled coil decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregate price remained unchanged [1]. 3.1.2 Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar supply and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. Hot - rolled coil demand declined significantly, with inventory accumulating against the season. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 760.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.19% (- 17.00). The open interest increased by 21913 lots to 55.94 million lots. The weighted open interest was 97.96 million lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.82 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.41% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased, but it was still at a high level. In terms of demand, the daily average pig - iron output decreased, and steel mills increased maintenance. The port inventory increased, and the steel - mill inventory also rose. Fundamentally, iron ore demand continued to weaken, and inventory pressure remained. In the short term, the ore price was expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 750 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron 3.3.1 Market Information - On November 7, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.66% at 5760 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 110 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 1.07% at 5526 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5580 yuan/ton, with a basis of 54 yuan/ton [7]. - Last week, the manganese - silicon price fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 8 yuan/ton (- 0.14%). The silicon - iron price also fluctuated, with a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton (+ 0.62%) [8]. 3.3.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In November, the black - sector pricing returned to fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trade, but it was considered a temporary shock. It was more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese - ore situation. For silicon iron, it followed the electricity - price changes with low operational value [9][10]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon 3.4.1 Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9220 yuan/ton, up 1.71% (+ 155). The open interest increased by 35423 lots to 435728 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged, with a basis of 80 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 remained unchanged, with a basis of - 320 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In October, industrial - silicon production increased. In November, Southwest production was expected to decline. Demand from polysilicon decreased, and organic - silicon production was expected to be stable. Inventory was at a high level, and the price was expected to consolidate [13]. 3.5 Polysilicon 3.5.1 Market Information - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 53215 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The open interest increased by 3207 lots to 228759 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of - 1015 yuan/ton [14]. 3.5.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In November, polysilicon production decreased, and downstream silicon - wafer production was also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but short - term de - stocking was limited. The price increase depends on the progress of the platform company [15]. 3.6 Glass and Soda Ash 3.6.1 Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 1101 yuan/ton, up 0.36% (+ 4). The North China large - plate price remained unchanged, and the Central China price increased by 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 265.40 million cases (- 4.03%) [17]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton, up 1.00% (+ 12). The Shahe heavy - soda price increased by 12 yuan. The weekly inventory of sample enterprises increased by 1.22 million tons (4.03%) [18]. 3.6.2 Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and local prices can be flexibly adjusted. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and production - capacity changes [18]. - Soda ash: The domestic market was stable, and the short - term market was expected to maintain a stable and volatile operation [19].

铁矿周报 2025 年 11 月 3 日 铁矿承压运行 核心观点及策略 铁水大幅减少 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/11 ⚫ 需求端：上周钢厂检修显著增加，铁水产量大幅调 整，淡季临近铁水将处于下滑周期。上周247家钢厂 高炉开工率81.75%，环比上周减少2.96个百分点，同 比去年减少0.69个百分点，日均铁水产量 236.36万 吨，环比上周减少3.54万吨，同比去年增加0.89万 吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外发运量环比回升，到港回落，发运 处于高位，供应持续较强。上周全球铁矿石发运总 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1纯碱 - In the short - term, pre - holiday restocking by mid - and downstream enterprises led to a temporary reduction in soda ash plant inventories, but high inventory and high supply still strongly suppress prices. The SA2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton. In the long - term, under the pattern of new capacity launch, the supply - demand of soda ash remains loose, and opportunities to short on rebounds after the weakening of macro - disturbances can be considered [5]. 2.2 Glass - In the short - term, macro - sentiment and the expectation of supply reduction still have a strong impact. The glass 2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1170 - 1320 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the changes in Shahe coal - fired production lines and macro - impacts [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly View Summary 3.1.1 Soda Ash - **Supply**: The device operating rate was 89.12% (up 3.59% week - on - week), with the ammonia - soda method at 89.87% (up 1% week - on - week) and the combined - soda method at 82.15% (up 6.62% week - on - week). The weekly output was 77.69 tons (up 3.12 tons week - on - week), including light soda ash output of 34.68 tons (up 1.88 tons) and heavy soda ash output of 43.01 tons (up 1.24 tons) [5]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for soda ash was 88.10 tons (up 9.34 tons), with light soda ash at 36.72 tons (up 2.57 tons) and heavy soda ash at 51.38 tons (up 6.77 tons) [5]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash enterprise inventory was 165.15 tons (down 4.42 tons), light soda ash inventory was 72.91 tons (up 0.33 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 92.24 tons (down 4.75 tons) [5]. 3.1.2 Glass - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass was 16.07 tons, up 0.31% compared to the 18th. There were 296 glass production lines in China, with 225 in production and 71 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 8.87 tons, unchanged week - on - week and down 9.29% year - on - year [6]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million weight cases, down 1.553 million weight cases week - on - week (down 2.55% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year). The inventory days were 25.4 days, 0.6 days less than the previous period [6]. - **Demand**: As of September 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.5 days, up 1.0% week - on - week and 2.9% year - on - year [6]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition 3.2.1 Market Review - Spot Price - Soda ash spot prices remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China was 1250 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash was 1150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton. In North China, the market price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash was 1200 yuan/ton, also with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton [11]. - The price of the soda ash main contract fluctuated. As of September 25, 2025, the basis of soda ash in the Shahe area was - 90 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week). The glass futures price rebounded significantly, and the glass basis in the Shahe area was - 182 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton from last week) [14]. 3.2.2 Market Review - Spread - As of September 25, 2025, the 1 - 5 spread of soda ash was - 89 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week); the 1 - 5 spread of glass was - 113 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan/ton week - on - week); the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread was 45 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan/ton week - on - week) [20]. 3.2.3 Fundamental - Supply - Soda ash weekly output was 77.69 tons (up 3.12 tons week - on - week), light soda ash output was 34.68 tons (up 1.88 tons), and heavy soda ash output was 43.01 tons (up 1.24 tons). Recently, there were limited changes in soda ash enterprise devices, and soda ash supply was expected to remain at a high level [26]. - There were 296 domestic glass production lines, with 225 in production and 71 cold - repaired and shut down. The national float glass daily output was 16.07 tons, up 0.31% compared to the 18th. This week, the national float glass output was 112.42 tons, up 0.27% week - on - week and down 2.56% year - on - year. The daily melting in - production capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,780 tons/day, unchanged week - on - week and down 9.29% year - on - year [46]. 3.2.4 Fundamental - Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, soda ash enterprise inventory was 165.15 tons (down 4.42 tons), light soda ash inventory was 72.91 tons (up 0.33 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 92.24 tons (down 4.75 tons) [39]. - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million weight cases, down 1.553 million weight cases week - on - week (down 2.55% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year). The inventory days were 25.4 days, 0.6 days less than the previous period [50]. 3.2.5 Fundamental - Profit - As of September 25, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda method soda ash in China was - 37.20 yuan/ton, down 0.45 yuan/ton week - on - week; the theoretical profit (double - ton) of combined - soda method soda ash in China was - 77.50 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton week - on - week [52].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Pulse Daily Report - September 15, 2025: Uncertainties Increase, Pressure on the Disk to Fall" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The recent soybean and rapeseed meal are mainly affected by macro - factors and operate in a volatile manner. The domestic soybean meal disk may have limited deep - fall space in the future, and the rapeseed meal has certain price support. [4][9] - It is recommended to lay out long positions for the 05 contract on dips, go long on the MRM05 spread on dips, and buy call options. [10] Group 4: Market Quotes Summary - **Futures and Spot Quotes**: Today, the US soybean disk declined slightly. The domestic soybean meal disk fell significantly due to potential supply improvement, and the rapeseed meal disk also dropped significantly affected by the sharp decline in soybean meal. For example, the soybean meal 01 contract closed at 3042, down 37; the rapeseed meal 01 contract closed at 2504, down 27. [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined significantly. For instance, the soybean meal 15 spread was 238 today, down 21 from yesterday; the rapeseed meal 15 spread was 111 today, down 14 from yesterday. [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads also changed. The current value of the soybean - rapeseed 01 spread was 538, down 10 from yesterday; the oil - meal ratio 01 was 2.753, up 0.05 from yesterday. [4] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The carry - over stock in the old - crop balance sheet of US soybeans was slightly increased. The new - crop yield had a small adjustment, with a slight decrease in yield per unit but a slight increase in planting area, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply. [5] - **South American Soybeans**: The old - crop supply - demand in South America was relatively loose. The soybean production in major exporting countries was expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crushing volume by 8.21 million tons. [5] - **International Soybean Meal**: The overall supply pressure of international soybean meal was obvious. The soybean crushing volume in major producing areas was expected to increase by 21.536 million tons throughout the year, while the import volume of major importing countries only increased slightly. [5] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal supply was relatively loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and sufficient market supply. As of September 12, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, and the operating rate was 66.35%. The rapeseed meal demand gradually weakened, the oil - mill operating rate decreased, and there was still supply pressure. [7] Group 6: Macro - analysis - The negotiation between China and the US in London was completed, but there was no clear information. The market was still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. However, as the market gradually stabilized, macro - disturbances decreased. [8] Group 7: Logic Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: The main influencing factor of domestic soybean meal was the macro - aspect. The overall soybean production changed little, and the inventory pressure still existed. The Brazilian soybean production remained high, and the price pressure also existed. [9] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal inventory was relatively low, but the demand was average. The subsequent import volume was relatively low, and the price lacked obvious fluctuations. [9] Group 8: Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to lay out long positions for the 05 contract on dips. [10] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Go long on the MRM05 spread on dips. [10] - **Options Trading**: Buy call options. [10]

Group 1 - The company, Huijin Co., stated that the losses of its subsidiaries and affiliated companies are primarily due to multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions, industry competition, and market environment [2] - To ensure stable cash flow, the company plans to implement a series of measures such as enhancing daily management of accounts receivable and inventory, improving capital allocation efficiency, and actively exploring diversified financing channels [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, trading around $111,330, with market sentiment divided and lacking a clear trend signal [1][3]. Technical Indicators Analysis - Short-term moving averages show a slight upward trend, while long-term moving averages remain downward [4]. - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating low volatility and indecisive market sentiment [4]. - A bullish engulfing pattern has appeared on the daily chart, but low trading volume suggests limited buying interest [4]. - The MACD shows increased momentum, indicating a slight advantage for bulls in the short term [4]. Key Position Contest - The $114,000 resistance level is a focal point for both bulls and bears, with analysts warning that any rebound below this level could be a bull trap [5]. - The $108,000 support level is crucial; if defended, it may stabilize Bitcoin's price and potentially restore an upward trend [5]. - A noticeable decline in trading volume near resistance indicates insufficient buying momentum, adding uncertainty to the market [5]. Historical Seasonal Patterns - September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -3.33% from 2017 to 2022 [6]. - On September 8, Bitcoin has a 72% probability of closing lower, with an average decline of 1.30%, making it one of the worst trading days of the year [6]. - The performance on September 8 may predict the month's overall trend, with a 75% chance of a higher monthly close if it rises on that day [6]. Macro Environment Impact - The cryptocurrency market is significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors, including U.S. interest rates and tariff uncertainties [7]. - Key U.S. employment data could impact interest rate expectations, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [7]. - Rising UK bond yields raise concerns about inflation and currency devaluation, which could either drive funds into cryptocurrencies or lead to a decline in risk assets [7]. Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Recent market liquidity has decreased due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday, but significant movements are occurring beneath the surface [8]. - A whale has sold approximately $4 billion worth of Bitcoin and shifted funds into Ethereum [8]. - The launch of Bitcoin ETFs has attracted institutional funds, with current holdings around 1.4 million Bitcoins [8][9]. Operational Strategy Recommendations - A cautious trading strategy is advised, focusing on key support and resistance levels for short-term trades [10]. - Long positions can be considered near $109,000 with a stop-loss at $108,500, targeting $110,500 [10]. - Short positions can be initiated near $112,500 with a stop-loss at $113,000, targeting $110,000 [10]. Ethereum Market Analysis - Ethereum is currently trading at $4,300, showing signs of a bottoming phase despite an overall bearish structure [11]. - A bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart suggests potential for a rebound, but the price remains under pressure from moving averages [11]. - Short-term trading strategies should focus on selling at highs and buying on dips, with specific entry and exit points outlined [11].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai holds a significant position in the A-share market, with its stock performance closely linked to overall economic conditions, industry trends, and internal operations [1] Historical Performance Review - Guizhou Moutai's stock price has shown a consistent upward trend over the years, driven by increasing brand recognition and steady operational growth [2] - The stock has repeatedly set record highs, providing substantial returns for long-term investors, despite occasional fluctuations [2] - Moutai demonstrates strong performance in both bull and bear markets, attracting attention from investment firms and individual investors alike [2][3] Impact of Performance on Stock Price - The company's robust operational performance leads to continuous revenue and profit growth, which underpins the stock price's upward trajectory [5] - Positive earnings announcements typically result in stock price increases, while disappointing results may lead to temporary declines [5] Industry Competition Landscape - Despite Moutai's leading position in the liquor market, competition remains fierce, with other companies enhancing product quality and brand appeal [6] - Moutai's strong brand image and historical significance help maintain its top position in the premium liquor segment, although it is exploring new marketing strategies to solidify its market standing [6] Macroeconomic Influences - Overall economic conditions significantly impact Moutai's stock performance, with increased consumer purchasing power during economic upturns leading to higher demand for premium liquor [10] - Economic downturns may reduce sales, affecting profitability and stock prices, while monetary and fiscal policies can influence market capital flow [10] Policy Considerations - National policies regarding the liquor industry, including regulations and tax measures, can affect Moutai's production and sales [11] - Changes in government spending regulations may alter purchasing patterns, but Moutai is adapting by targeting broader consumer segments [13] Future Market Outlook - Moutai's market prospects remain promising, despite challenges such as intensified competition and regulatory adjustments [14] - The brand's strong influence and the anticipated rise in demand for quality liquor due to improving economic conditions provide a favorable market environment [14] - The company is actively pursuing digital innovations to enhance operational efficiency, which could positively impact future performance [14]

Summary of Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) Update / Briefing Company Overview - **Company**: Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) - **Division**: Onyx, an advisory firm under Expeditors, focuses on global supply chains and navigating trade disruptions [8][10] Industry Context - **Industry**: Trade and logistics, with a focus on customs and tariffs - **Current Environment**: Significant changes in U.S. trade policy, particularly regarding tariffs and trade agreements with various countries [13][15] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Changes**: Nine new tariff levels were announced, increasing the overall effective tariff rate significantly, with a focus on transshipment, which incurs an additional 40% tariff for goods attempting to avoid tariffs [15][16] 2. **Focus on China**: The U.S. administration is primarily targeting Chinese goods and exports, with a notable removal of de minimis exemptions for goods valued at $800 or less [17][18] 3. **Impact of Tariffs**: The competitive landscape will be affected on an industry-by-industry and product-by-product basis, with ongoing evaluations of how these tariffs will impact various sectors [20][21] 4. **Uncertainty in Trade Deals**: Current agreements are not fully defined, leading to significant uncertainty in trade relationships, particularly with the EU, Canada, and Mexico [22][56] 5. **Political Pressures**: Domestic political pressures, especially with upcoming midterms, may influence tariff policies and negotiations [26][66] 6. **EU Relations**: The EU has avoided a full trade war with the U.S., but faces economic and political challenges due to the current tariff landscape [27][58] 7. **China-U.S. Relations**: The relationship is in a strategic pause, with limited deals expected, focusing on structural demands rather than comprehensive agreements [62][63] 8. **USMCA and India**: The USMCA remains unresolved, and the Trump administration is applying pressure on India with reciprocal tariffs and potential sanctions related to oil purchases from Russia [66][70] Additional Important Insights 1. **Macroeconomic Impact**: Tariffs are expected to have a stagflationary effect, negatively impacting growth while pushing inflation higher, with estimates of a half percentage point reduction in GDP growth [80][81] 2. **Sector-Specific Effects**: Consumer electronics, automobiles, and industrial metals are among the most affected sectors due to high tariff exposure [82] 3. **Fiscal Implications**: Tariffs are projected to generate significant revenue, but the regressive nature of tariffs may disproportionately affect lower-income households [86] 4. **Investment Trends**: There is a potential shift in foreign direct investment towards Mexico and ASEAN economies as companies seek to derisk from China [87] Conclusion - The current trade environment is characterized by significant uncertainty and evolving tariff policies, with potential long-term implications for various sectors and international relationships. The focus remains on navigating these changes while assessing their macroeconomic impacts and sector-specific challenges.

Summary of Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) Update / Briefing Company Overview - **Company**: Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) - **Division**: Onex, an advisory firm under Expeditors, focuses on global supply chains and trade compliance [1][6][7]. Industry Context - **Industry**: Trade and logistics, particularly in the context of U.S. tariffs and international trade relations. - **Key Focus**: The impact of recent U.S. tariff policies on global trade dynamics, especially concerning China, the EU, and other trading partners [2][10][12]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Recent Tariff Changes**: Nine new tariff levels were announced, significantly increasing effective tariff rates, particularly targeting China [12][14]. 2. **Transshipment Focus**: A new 40% tariff will apply to goods deemed to be avoiding U.S. tariffs, indicating a stringent approach to enforcement [12][26]. 3. **China Relations**: The U.S. is focusing on containing Chinese exports, with ongoing negotiations expected to yield limited agreements similar to the Phase One deal [14][58]. 4. **EU Trade Dynamics**: The EU has avoided a full trade war with the U.S., but faces internal challenges regarding its chemical industry and strategic investments [24][55]. 5. **India's Position**: The U.S. is applying pressure on India with a 25% tariff, but India is expected to remain resilient due to its strategic trade positioning [64][65]. 6. **Macroeconomic Impacts**: Tariffs are projected to lower U.S. GDP growth by up to 1.5 percentage points, with inflation expected to rise by about 0.5 percentage points [47][75]. 7. **Sector-Specific Impacts**: Consumer electronics, automobiles, and industrial metals are among the sectors most affected by the new tariffs [78][81]. 8. **Long-Term Outlook**: The U.S. administration's focus on reshoring manufacturing may lead to a complex interplay of tariffs and trade agreements, with significant uncertainty remaining [83][84]. Additional Important Insights - **Political Pressures**: The Trump administration's tariff policies are influenced by domestic political considerations, particularly with upcoming midterm elections [23][45]. - **Investment Dynamics**: There is a notable push for foreign direct investment into Mexico and ASEAN economies as companies seek to diversify away from China [84]. - **Uncertainty in Implementation**: Many aspects of the new tariff policies, especially regarding transshipments and country of origin rules, remain undefined, leading to potential surprises for importers [86][88]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the briefing, highlighting the implications of U.S. trade policies on various sectors and international relationships.

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans/meal, the old - crop situation is overall bullish, while the new - crop has its own supply - demand characteristics. The market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - For sugar, the international sugar market may face a supply surplus in 2025/26, while the domestic sugar market is expected to have a stable supply - demand gap. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [6][7][9]. - For the oil sector, the MPOB report has a neutral - to - bearish impact, but the overall sentiment of commodities has improved. Different oils have different supply - demand situations, and the market is in a rebound phase [17]. - For corn/corn starch, the US corn market is weak, while the domestic corn market is strong in the spot market, and the futures market has support [26]. - For hogs, the market is slightly volatile, with the spot price falling slowly and the futures market moving in a volatile manner [32]. - For peanuts, the short - term market is expected to be slightly stronger, with factors such as the expected increase in new - season planting area and weather conditions affecting the market [37]. - For eggs, the overall supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to close out short positions and wait and see [48]. - For apples, the cold - storage inventory is low, and the market supply is likely to be tight before the new fruit is on the market. The price is expected to maintain a slightly stronger and volatile trend [53]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, due to the positive results of Sino - US trade negotiations, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to strengthen under the influence of the macro - level [58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index rose 1.52% to 1069.5 cents/bu, and CBOT meal index rose 0.1% to 297.8 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: ANEC expects Brazil's soybean and meal exports in May to increase; EU's 2024/25 imports of soybeans, rapeseed, and meal are higher than last year; USDA's monthly supply - demand report shows bullish old - crop and new - crop has its own supply - demand data; oil mills' soybean and meal inventory data changed [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is mainly in a volatile mode; arbitrage is on hold; use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [4]. Sugar - **External Market**: ICE US sugar rose, with the main contract rising 0.42 (2.71%) to 18.18 cents/lb [5]. - **Important Information**: Louis Dreyfus predicts a supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar market; China's sugar production and consumption are expected to change; Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of May decreased; domestic sugar spot prices and trading conditions [6][7][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, partially close out long positions and partially hold; arbitrage is on hold; sell wide - straddle options or out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11][12]. Oil Sector - **External Market**: Overnight, CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil had price changes [14]. - **Related Information**: MPOB's April palm oil supply - demand data shows inventory increase; SPPOMA data indicates palm oil production increase in early May; EU's palm oil and other oil imports change; domestic oil trading volume increased [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, consider lightly going long on palm oil or shorting after a rebound; for the YP 09 spread, partially close out positions and partially hold; options are on hold [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Change**: CBOT corn futures declined, with the main contract falling 0.8% to 443.5 cents/bu [24]. - **Important Information**: CBOT corn futures fell due to technical selling and good sowing conditions; US corn planting and emergence rates are high; future weather in the main producing areas is expected to be favorable; domestic corn port prices and spot prices changed [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, try to go long on 07 corn; for arbitrage, operate the corn - starch spread in a volatile manner and buy 07 starch and short 07 corn; for options, consider the strategy of selling call options on the spot [27][29][30]. Hogs - **Related Information**: Hog prices are in a volatile state; prices of piglets and sows changed; agricultural product wholesale price index and pork average price decreased [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a bearish approach; for arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse spread; sell wide - straddle options [33]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable; peanut oil factory arrivals, prices, and inventory changed; peanut oil and peanut meal prices and sales conditions [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, lightly go long on 10 peanuts in a short - term and operate in a volatile manner; arbitrage and options are on hold [40][41][42]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Egg prices in the main producing and selling areas changed; in - production laying hen inventory, egg - chick hatching, hen culling, egg sales, and inventory data changed [44][45][47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, close out short positions and wait and see; for arbitrage, go long on 08 and short 09; options are on hold [48][49][50]. Apples - **Important Information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased, exports and imports changed; spot prices are stable, and storage merchants' profit increased [52][53]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, build long positions on AP10 at low prices; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [56][54]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Influence**: ICE US cotton declined, with the main contract falling 0.23 (0.35%) to 66.25 cents/lb [55]. - **Important Information**: Sino - US trade negotiations achieved progress; USDA's 25/26 cotton supply - demand data changed; the out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index is stable [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, US cotton is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to strengthen; arbitrage and options are on hold [58][60].