山高环能 20260306 摘要 欧盟 2025 年起实施 2%强制掺混政策，预计带来 130 万吨 SAF 需求增 量，通过 HEFA 路径向上游传导，强化 UCO 资源稀缺性并支撑量价上 行。 公司计划未来 3 年将垃圾处理能力由 5,160 吨/日扩张至 8,000-10,000 吨/日，实现产能翻番，2025-2026 年定增落地将开启新一轮资产扩张。 内生提质增效显著：2024 年处理效率提升 6pct 至 75%，提油率升至 4.5%，带动 UCO 资产量从 0.34 万吨增至 7.40 万吨，生产成本压降 13.26%。 盈利能力修复：2025 年前三季度归母净利润 5,261 万元，同比扭亏； 经营性现金流 2.22 亿元，同比增加 1.32 亿元，自由现金流实现转正。 国内 SAF 潜在空间巨大：若 2030 年掺混比例达 4.7%，年需求有望接 近 250 万吨；目前全国可用于 SAF 的 UCO 约 200 万吨，供需呈紧平衡 态势。 竞争壁垒稳固：公司通过 20-30 年特许经营权锁定原料供应，项目多位 于高耗油人口密集区，具备较强的资源获取与运营壁垒。 Q&A 山高环能的核心业务、产 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current status and outlook of the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and biodiesel markets, particularly focusing on the global and European markets [1][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global SAF Market Growth**: The global SAF market is expected to grow by 300,000 to 400,000 tons in 2026, with significant contributions from the CORSIA mechanism in 2027, which mandates equal carbon emissions at both ends of flight routes [1][6]. - **European Market Demand**: The European market is experiencing high demand for Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) due to the EU's RED3 legislation and double carbon credit policies in countries like Germany [1][4]. The total demand in Europe and non-EU regions is projected to be around 1.8 million tons in 2026 [2]. - **Domestic Supply Constraints**: In China, the supply of waste cooking oil is tight, estimated at 4-4.5 million tons, which is insufficient to support planned production capacities [1][10]. The potential for new capacity must be assessed cautiously to avoid oversupply due to raw material shortages [1][10]. - **Raw Material Viability**: Palm oil and agricultural waste are technically feasible as raw materials, but certification issues and high costs limit their large-scale application [1][11]. The demand for palm-based products in Europe is noteworthy [1][11]. - **Impact of Restructuring**: The restructuring of China National Aviation Fuel (CNAF) and Sinopec is not expected to have a significant short-term impact on the domestic aviation fuel market, but long-term implications could arise if Sinopec leads SAF applications [1][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Price Dynamics**: The price of HVO in Europe is currently around $2,500, while soybean prices have dropped below $2,100 [4]. The market is expected to stabilize in 2026, with less volatility in procurement structures [9]. - **Regulatory Factors**: The implementation of the EU ID3 legislation and potential changes in carbon credit policies could significantly impact supply gaps and cost burdens for airlines [3][13]. - **UCO and Plant Oil Price Correlation**: There is a moderate correlation between UCO (Used Cooking Oil) and plant oil prices, with a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.6 [21]. - **UCO Production and Export**: China produces over 4 million tons of UCO annually, with about 2 million tons exported [22]. Future growth in UCO production may slow as potential resources are fully developed [22]. Conclusion The conference call highlights the complexities and dynamics of the SAF and biodiesel markets, emphasizing the importance of regulatory frameworks, supply constraints, and price stability in shaping future market conditions. The potential for growth in these sectors remains significant, but careful monitoring of raw material availability and regulatory changes is essential for stakeholders.

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 104.79 CNY as of November 11 [1]. Core Views - The company is transitioning towards sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, which is expected to be a key growth driver for future revenues and profits. The SAF project in Lianyungang is projected to significantly enhance the company's profitability and market position [8][9][33]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Jiaao Environmental Protection, is a leading producer of environmentally friendly plasticizers and has recently launched SAF products. It has established a complete industrial chain through strategic acquisitions [12][13]. - The Lianyungang SAF project aims to produce 500,000 tons of biomass energy annually, with the first batch of SAF products expected to be exported in 2025 [8][12][33]. Industry Perspective - 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for the implementation of SAF blending policies across multiple countries, including the EU, UK, and Indonesia, which will drive demand for SAF [9][37]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in SAF demand, with projections indicating that by 2030, China's domestic demand for SAF could reach 2.81 million tons, supported by various national policies [9][37][40]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to generate revenues of 42.23 billion CNY, 64.96 billion CNY, and 97.23 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 0.89 billion CNY, 3.91 billion CNY, and 6.98 billion CNY [9][10]. - The SAF project is projected to yield a net profit of approximately 6.1 billion CNY at full capacity, with significant growth potential as the company expands its production capabilities [34][35].