2026 年 01 月 11 日 基础化工 硫磺价格在博弈中震荡前行，绿色能源 开年内外利好共振 事件：①据百川盈孚，截至 1 月 9 日，镇江港硫磺价格报 4190 元/吨，周环比+4.75%。②据新华社，国务院国资委 1 月 8 日发 布消息，经报国务院批准，中国石油化工集团有限公司与中国航 空油料集团有限公司实施重组。 短期保供难改长期偏紧态势，硫磺价格在博弈中震荡前行 据中国农资传媒公众号，25 年 12 月以来，我国多方联动，锚定 硫磺保供稳价预期：①12 月 11 日，国家发改委牵头召开专题会 议，明确 26 年 8 月前我国磷肥原则上暂缓出口；②12 月 12 日， 中国硫酸工业协会发布行业倡议，倡导硫磺、硫酸等企业春耕前 满负荷生产，并将检修计划优先避让春耕关键期；③12 月 18 日， 中国硫酸工业协会与中国磷复肥工业协会再度联合召开专题会 议，鼓励冶炼酸企业与磷肥企业签订长期购销协议，并部署磷石 膏制酸技术研发，为长期硫资源保障布局。系列政策博弈下，短 期供需矛盾或可一定程度缓解，但我们认为硫磺产量增长受上游 炼化规模制约，保供政策难以从根本上扭转国内资源偏紧的格局。 需求侧我国磷酸铁锂以 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 防线人行业电 相关研究 券研究培 证券分析师 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 研究支持 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 联系人 草龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 国 RED III 落地, 看好 HVC UCO 发展 本期投资后了 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 环保 事件: 12 月 11 日，德国内阁正式通过了基于欧盟《可再生能源指令》 (RED III) 转化 ○ 为本国法律的立法（以下简称法案），有望提振 HVO 及 UCO 需求。 欧盟 RED III 于 2023 年生效．要求成员国 2025 年转为本国法律，实际转换滞后。2023 ● 年９月，欧洲议会正式投票通过了 RED III，同时要求欧盟成员国须在 2025 年 5 月 21 日 前，将 REDIII 指令转化为本国的国内法律并开始实施。但由于牵涉面广、目标难度大， 多个欧盟成员国在转置过程中普遍存在滞后。 德国立法上调汽柴油温室 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The German government has officially passed legislation to implement the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), which is expected to boost the demand for HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil) and UCO (Used Cooking Oil) [4]. - The RED III directive, effective from 2023, mandates EU member states to transpose it into national law by May 21, 2025, with Germany setting a higher greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target of 19% for gasoline and diesel by 2030, compared to the EU's unified target of 14.5% [4][5]. - The cancellation of double counting for advanced biofuels is expected to convert "accounting quotas" into "physical volumes," significantly increasing the demand for HVO and UCO [4]. - The removal of POME (Palm Oil Mill Effluent) from compliance eligibility is set to take effect in 2027, although its impact is considered limited due to the declining share of palm oil in EU biodiesel feedstocks [4]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for biodiesel development across road transport, shipping, and aviation, with specific companies recommended for investment: Shandong Hi-Speed Energy, Hainan New Energy Technology, Longkun Technology, and Weili [4]. Summary by Sections Legislative Developments - The German cabinet's approval of the RED III legislation is a significant step towards enhancing HVO and UCO demand [4]. - The legislation aims to increase the GHG reduction target for the transportation sector, with a gradual rise to 59% by 2040 [4]. Market Implications - The cancellation of double counting is anticipated to enhance HVO profitability, indirectly raising SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices due to reduced supply [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the legislative progress in other EU member states as they implement RED III [4]. Company Valuations - Key companies in the sector are evaluated with projected net profits and market capitalizations, indicating potential investment opportunities [6]. - For instance, Shandong Hi-Speed Energy is projected to have a net profit of 1.05 billion in 2025, with a PE ratio of 33 [6].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant increase in SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) prices, with EU and China prices reaching $2,500 and $2,960 per ton respectively, marking increases of 39% and 60% since the beginning of 2025 [1][2] - The profit margin for SAF in China is calculated to exceed 4,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong profitability in the sector [1] - The tightening supply of SAF is driven by the upcoming EU and UK verification of a 2% SAF blending ratio, alongside maintenance shutdowns at major production facilities like NESTE [2] Group 2 - The implementation of the RED III legislation in the EU starting in 2026 will raise carbon reduction targets and eliminate the double carbon credit policy for biodiesel produced from used cooking oil (UCO), leading to increased demand for biodiesel and UCO [3] - The projected demand for biodiesel produced from UCO in the EU is expected to rise significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase from 3.74 million tons in 2025 to an additional 4 million tons in 2026 [3] - The maritime sector is also expected to see increased demand for biodiesel, with new regulations requiring a shift towards electric or 100% biofuel-powered vessels by 2030 [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights significant profit growth in municipal environmental companies, particularly in waste incineration power generation and biofuel sectors, driven by capacity expansion and improved operational efficiency [1][5] Waste Incineration Power Generation - Major waste incineration companies reported substantial profit increases in Q3, with notable growth in net profits for companies like Junxin Co. (+47.6%), Hanlan Environment (+28.1%), and Yongxing Co. (+25.6%) [1] - Key factors for profit growth include the commissioning of new projects, asset acquisitions, and enhanced capacity utilization through methods like co-firing aged waste [1][2] - The average profit increase from heat supply per ton of waste is approximately 80 yuan [1] Cash Flow Improvement - Waste incineration companies experienced growth in net cash flow from operating activities, attributed to increased capacity and government subsidy repayments [2] Water Utilities - Water utility companies showed mixed profit results in Q3, with notable declines in net profits for Chuangye Environmental (-10.4%) and Shou Chuang Environmental (-78.4%), while others like Hongcheng Environment (+2.1%) and Chongqing Water (+2.7%) reported growth [3] - The significant drop in Shou Chuang's profits was primarily due to a one-time investment gain from the previous year [3] Biofuels - Biofuel companies saw substantial profit increases in Q3, driven by rising raw material prices and improved sales [4][5] - UCO export prices rose by 16.7%-22.2% year-on-year, benefiting companies like Shangaohuan Energy and Langkun Technology, which reported significant profit recoveries [4] - Despite a decline in biodiesel export sales due to EU anti-dumping duties, companies like Zhuoyue New Energy managed to achieve profit growth through cost control and new production lines [4] - SAF sales volume increased significantly, with prices rising by 42.16%, leading to profitability for companies like Jiaao Environmental [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on waste incineration companies with high dividends and growth potential, such as Guangda Environment, Hanlan Environment, Yongxing Co., and Junxin Co. [6] - It also recommends biofuel companies benefiting from overseas carbon reduction policies, including Shangaohuan Energy and Jiaao Environmental [6] - For the water sector, high-dividend assets like Beikong Water Group and Yuehai Investment are highlighted [6]

Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 958 million CNY in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 63.82% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 93.33 million CNY, with a total revenue of 1.942 billion CNY and a net profit of 57.95 million CNY for the first three quarters, marking a turnaround from losses [2][3] - Total liabilities significantly decreased, with a debt ratio of 29.81% as of September 2025, down from 38.99% at the end of 2024, a reduction of 9.18% [2] Operational Improvements - The company capitalized on the rising market for hydrocarbon-based biodiesel, leading to profitability primarily from the bioenergy sector [3] - Innovations in sales strategies and successful execution of long-term contracts with non-EU clients contributed to performance improvements [3] - Key operational metrics improved due to technological innovations and equipment upgrades, resulting in lower processing costs and enhanced risk resilience [3] Accounts Receivable Management - As of September 2025, accounts receivable stood at 503 million CNY, a decrease of 27 million CNY from the previous year [3] - Other receivables dropped to 181 million CNY, down 1.168 billion CNY from the previous year-end [3] - The company implemented measures such as enhanced credit tracking and legal actions to improve collection efficiency, optimizing its asset-liability structure [3] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The average offshore price of ARA SAF reached 2,854 USD/ton as of October 31, driven by regulatory policies and rising demand [4][5] - The company anticipates sustained high demand for SAF due to strengthened enforcement of blending mandates across various regions [5] - The company plans to actively explore domestic and international markets for biofuels, aiming for full production and sales of bioenergy products [5] Strategic Development Plans - Over the next three years, the company aims to focus on green development and technological innovation, aspiring to become a leading global green energy supplier [6] - The bioenergy sector will be the core strategic pillar, with a commitment to long-term investment and efficiency improvements [6] - Plans include enhancing the competitiveness of catalytic purification products and increasing R&D efforts in bioenergy and catalytic purification technologies [6]

Core Insights - The price of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has increased by over 15% year-on-year, with the current price at $2600.54 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15.06% [1][2] - The price of Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) has decreased slightly by 0.24% week-on-week, currently priced at 2320.25 yuan per ton [1][2] - European UCOME prices have risen by 0.63% week-on-week, now at €1295.06 per ton, while Chinese UCOME prices remain stable at $1170.20 per ton [1][2] - Southeast Asian biodiesel prices have increased by 0.44% week-on-week, currently at $1176.25 per ton [1][2] Industry Dynamics - SAF prices have seen a significant increase, with European HVO prices also rising slightly. The current FOB FARAG price for SAF is $2574.25 per ton, indicating a positive trading atmosphere among Central European SAF traders [3] - Ireland has announced a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Development Roadmap, aiming for a mandatory SAF supply ratio of 2% by 2025, 6% by 2030, and 20% by 2035 [3] - Malaysia plans to start producing SAF by the end of 2025 and is revising its National Biofuel Policy to include SAF as a strategic component [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The global biodiesel market is expected to see growth due to the demand for bio-jet fuel and bio-marine fuel, alongside the cancellation of export VAT refunds for raw materials [4] - Companies with significant biodiesel or raw material production capacity, such as Zhuoyue New Energy, Jiaao Environmental Protection, Shanggou Environmental Energy, Haineng Science and Technology, and Langkun Environment, are recommended for attention [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance of Pengyao Environmental Protection (300664) for the first half of 2025, showing a decline in total revenue but an increase in net profit [1] - The company's total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 750 million yuan, a decrease of 18.72% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 185 million yuan, an increase of 15.03% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the total revenue was 479 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, but the net profit for the same quarter decreased by 19.9% to 51.18 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The gross margin for the reporting period increased by 2.44% to 30.46%, while the net margin saw a significant increase of 44.1% to 24.69% [1] - The total of selling, administrative, and financial expenses amounted to 128 million yuan, accounting for 17.11% of revenue, which is a year-on-year increase of 24.08% [1] - The company reported a decrease in cash flow per share to 0.03 yuan, down 26.31% year-on-year, while earnings per share increased by 16.12% to 0.25 yuan [1] Group 3 - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) for the previous year was 3.41%, indicating historically low capital returns [3] - The average cash flow situation is concerning, with cash and cash equivalents representing only 4.02% of total assets and 33.28% of current liabilities [3] - The company has a significant amount of receivables, with accounts receivable to profit ratio reaching 960.35% [3] Group 4 - The European Union's implementation of a 2% sustainable fuel (SF) blending policy by 2025 is expected to increase demand for SF, which may lead to price increases [4] - The EU has introduced measures to support airlines in purchasing sustainable aviation fuel, but the compliance costs remain high, potentially doubling the procurement costs for airlines [5] - China's lower production costs and abundant supply of used cooking oil (UCO) may allow it to capture a significant market share in the EU's SF market [5]

Core Insights - GXO Logistics and B&Q are collaborating to achieve net-zero carbon emissions in B&Q's logistics operations by 2040, with significant advancements in alternative fuel usage and AI technology [1][2][3] Group 1: Partnership and Goals - The partnership between GXO and B&Q began in 2015, managing B&Q's retail transport network and focusing on sustainability and innovation in logistics [2] - B&Q aims to decarbonize its logistics fleet, with a comprehensive roadmap called the B&Q Sustainability Glidepath launched in 2022, targeting a 40% reduction in emissions by 2024 [3] Group 2: Fleet Transformation - B&Q has deployed 105 Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) vehicles since 2019, now holding the second-largest LNG fleet in the UK, which has reduced carbon emissions by 16,000 tonnes [4] - All remaining vehicles and 80 refrigerated trailers were converted to Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) by December 2024, achieving up to 90% reduction in CO₂ emissions compared to diesel [4] Group 3: Electrification and Operational Efficiency - The current electric vehicle (EV) fleet includes five electric vans and two electric HGVs, with plans to add 55 more EVs over the next five years, projected to save 250 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent annually [5] - Initiatives to reduce road miles include backhaul optimization, saving 104 tonnes of Scope 3 emissions in 2024, and a 9.5% reduction in fleet size since 2021 through improved scheduling [5] Group 4: AI and Future Innovations - B&Q is piloting GXO's AI-powered transport optimization platform, which is expected to save 240,000 kilometers and 150 tonnes of CO₂ annually, with full implementation planned for 2025 [7] - In Q1 2025, 35 new LNG-powered Volvo FH Aero tractor units were introduced, improving fuel efficiency by 3% and saving an estimated 100 tonnes of CO₂ annually [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, China's total exports of HVO and SAF reached 338,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.06%, with domestic SAF export channels successfully opened [2][6]. - Biodiesel exports fell to 381,000 tons, a decrease of 42.4% year-on-year, primarily due to anti-dumping tariffs [7][17]. - UCO exports totaled 1,262,000 tons, down 10.5% year-on-year, with Singapore replacing the U.S. as the largest export destination [8][31]. - The report suggests monitoring overseas policies and demand changes, anticipating more supportive domestic policies to be implemented [9][43]. Summary by Sections SAF & HVO - In H1 2025, China's SAF export channels were successfully opened, with a total export volume of 338,400 tons, marking an 8.06% increase year-on-year. Jiangsu Province exported 14,900 tons of SAF to Belgium and Spain in June, likely from the Jiaao Environmental Lianyungang factory [6][16]. - Domestic SAF exports require approval from four government departments, and Jiaao Environmental received a license for 372,400 tons of bio-jet fuel, indicating a positive trend for future SAF exports [6][16]. Biodiesel - Biodiesel exports in H1 2025 were 381,000 tons, down 42.4% year-on-year, mainly due to anti-dumping tariffs imposed by the EU [7][17]. - Major export partners included Malaysia (141,000 tons), Singapore (98,700 tons), and the Netherlands (70,000 tons), with significant increases in exports to Malaysia and Singapore, likely for blending with marine fuel [7][22]. - The average export price for biodiesel was $1,103 per ton, a slight increase of 2.0% year-on-year, while total export value dropped by 40.6% to $3.02 billion [17]. UCO - UCO exports in H1 2025 were 1,262,000 tons, a decrease of 10.5% year-on-year, attributed to increased domestic SAF production and the cancellation of export tax rebates [8][29]. - The average export price for UCO was $1,048 per ton, up 17.9% year-on-year, driven by the EU's mandatory blending policy for SAF [8][29]. - Singapore became the largest export destination for UCO, with exports to the U.S. declining significantly due to high tariffs [31][35]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the need to track overseas policy changes and anticipates more domestic supportive policies to be implemented [9][43]. - The U.S. market faces significant uncertainty due to fluctuating tariff policies, while the EU's blending ratio requirements for SAF are expected to boost China's SAF industry [43]. - In Singapore, the demand for clean alternative fuels is projected to increase due to new carbon quota regulations for the shipping industry [43]. Investment Recommendations - The industry is viewed positively due to its reliance on waste oils as raw materials, with several companies producing qualified SAF and obtaining airworthiness certification. The report recommends focusing on raw material suppliers and processing companies like Zhuoyue New Energy [9][47].