Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, there is a bottom - support sentiment in the pig market, but contradictions continue to accumulate. The rebound of spot prices in October led to an extension of the inventory accumulation cycle due to increased second - round fattening enthusiasm, postponing the pressure. The futures market is expected to enter an adjustment phase [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (10.20 - 10.26) - **Spot Market**: Pig prices showed a strong - side oscillation. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 19.4 yuan/kg (last week: 20.4 yuan/kg), the pig price in Henan was 11.98 yuan/kg (last week: 11.38 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1546 yuan/head (last week: 1566 yuan/head). The average national slaughter weight was 124.75KG, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06%. The supply tightened slightly as group slaughter progress was fast and individual farmers were reluctant to sell. Low prices stimulated demand, and the slaughter volume increased significantly [2]. - **Futures Market**: Pig futures prices showed a strong - side performance. The highest price of the LH2511 contract was 11615 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11200 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11490 yuan/ton (last week: 11050 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2511 contract was 490 yuan/ton (last week: 330 yuan/ton) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (10.27 - 11.2) - **Spot Market**: Pig spot prices will oscillate. After the sharp decline after the National Day holiday, low prices stimulated demand and second - round fattening. Supply is expected to increase continuously, but low prices have boosted demand. The inventory accumulation cycle has been extended, and the pressure has been postponed. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment after the rebound at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2511 contract price closed at 11490 yuan/ton on October 24. Short - term spot prices are expected to oscillate upward, but the market is expected to enter an adjustment phase. The support level for the LH2511 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12000 yuan/ton. Traders should pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Month - spread**: This week's basis was 490 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 month - spread was - 685 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9%; pork imports were 80,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.02%. The average slaughter weight this week was 124.75KG [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The spot price of live pigs is expected to remain weak in the coming week. In October, supply will increase while demand decreases, and the inventory cycle will shift from accumulation to reduction. The spot price is still in the process of finding a bottom [3]. - For the futures market, the LH2511 contract may see a basis - convergence market. There is an expectation of a cycle reversal in the third quarter of 2026, and the structure is mainly in a large reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 10,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 11,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review (9.29 - 10.12) Spot Market - Live pig prices are running weakly. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan is 20.4 yuan/kg (last week: 24.55 yuan/kg), the price of live pigs in Henan is 11.13 yuan/kg (last week: 12.58 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide is 1,566 yuan/head (last week: 1,590 yuan/head) [1]. - On the supply side, the group's slaughter progress is slow, and individual farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a loose supply. On the demand side, the pre - festival stocking volume was large, the slaughter volume decreased after the festival, and some secondary fattening farmers actively entered the market. The average slaughter weight nationwide this week is 124.46KG (last week: 124.35KG), with a month - on - month increase of 0.09% [1]. Futures Market - Live pig futures prices are running weakly. The highest price of the LH2511 contract this week is 11,905 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 11,320 yuan/ton, and the closing price is 11,320 yuan/ton (last week: 12,575 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2511 contract is - 190 yuan/ton (last week: 5 yuan/ton) [2]. 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (10.13 - 10.19) Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs will run weakly. Although it should have entered the active inventory reduction stage since mid - to - late September, effective inventory reduction has not been seen yet, and the spot price continues to decline. Supply is expected to increase in October, and demand will enter the off - season again, so the spot price is still in the process of finding a bottom [3]. Futures Market - The LH2511 contract closed at 11,320 yuan/ton on October 10th. The peak season during the double festivals fell short of expectations, and the expected slaughter volume will continue to increase significantly in October. The inventory cycle is still in the passive inventory accumulation stage, and the spot price bottom has not appeared. For the 2026 third - quarter market, there is an expectation of a cycle reversal, and the structure is mainly in a large reverse spread. Short - term support and pressure levels are 10,000 yuan/ton and 11,500 yuan/ton respectively [4]. 3.3 Other Data - This week's basis is - 190 yuan/ton; the LH2511 - LH2601 month spread is - 820 yuan/ton [8]. - The average weight this week is 124.46KG (last week: 124.35KG). In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9%; pork imports were 81,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.46% [11].