2025 年 7 月 28 日 生猪：强现实弱预期，结构切换至趋势反套 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 14180 | | -50 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 13600 | | -50 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 15440 | | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | 14385 | | 20 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 14385 | | 175 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 14615 | | 65 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current phase of the futures market has entered the expected trading stage. The expectation of state reserve purchases has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted near - term sentiment. The spot prices have been continuously strengthening, and the futures market is undergoing basis repair. However, the futures prices are offering hedging profits, leading to increased market speculation. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, and subsequent spot performance should be monitored. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex, and factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer hog retention need to be considered. Traders should wait for subsequent spot market verification and pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of pigs in Henan is 14,980 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Sichuan, it is 14,450 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Guangdong, it is 16,640 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2509 contract is 14,245 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2511 contract is 13,685 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2601 contract is 13,780 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig 2509 contract is 28,287 lots, down 13,440 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 73,418 lots, down 3,761 lots from the previous day; the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 10,017 lots, down 5,700 lots, and an open interest of 41,964 lots, up 344 lots; the 2601 contract has a trading volume of 5,048 lots, down 2,654 lots, and an open interest of 19,369 lots, up 688 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig 2509 contract is 735 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2511 contract basis is 1,295 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2601 contract basis is 1,200 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton year - on - year. The 9 - 11 spread is 560 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year, and the 11 - 1 spread is - 95 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]