Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided on the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish stance, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2]. - In August, the planned出栏 volume of group farms increased, small - scale farmers had passive backlogs, demand growth was limited, large - scale farms' efforts to reduce supply and support prices were ineffective, daily trading was poor, and it was difficult to absorb market supply. The supply pressure in the near - term was difficult to reverse, and the priority of the production - capacity cycle was higher than that of the inventory cycle. It is recommended to enter a 11 - 1 reverse spread trade. The state reserve purchase policy has been implemented, and during the passive inventory accumulation phase, supply pressure usually requires multiple rounds of state reserve purchases to be digested. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver has increased, so the premium - collection market continues. The sentiment for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,780 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; the Sichuan spot price is 13,350 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100; the Guangdong spot price is 14,790 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 150 [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the 'pig2509' contract is 13,300 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 145; the 'pig2511' contract is 13,590 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 155; the 'pig2601' contract is 13,940 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 140 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the 'pig2509' contract is 2,887 lots, a decrease of 1,339 from the previous day, and the open interest is 4,118 lots, a decrease of 1,746 from the previous day. The trading volume of the 'pig2511' contract is 30,542 lots, an increase of 4,380 from the previous day, and the open interest is 74,963 lots, an increase of 3,370 from the previous day. The trading volume of the 'pig2601' contract is 13,435 lots, an increase of 2,826 from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,133 lots, an increase of 582 from the previous day [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the 'pig2509' contract is 480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 145; the 'pig2511' contract basis is 190 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 155; the 'pig2601' contract basis is - 160 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 140. The 9 - 11 spread of pigs is - 290 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 10 [1].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: July 28, 2025 [1] - Report title: "Pigs: Strong Reality, Weak Expectations, Structural Switch to Trend Reverse Spread" [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The current situation of the pig market is characterized by strong reality and weak expectations, with the spread structure switching to a reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,180 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 13,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Futures prices**: The price of the pig 2509 contract is 14,385 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract is 14,385 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton; and the 2601 contract is 14,615 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading volume and open interest**: For the 2509 contract, the trading volume is 57,043 lots, down 22,144 lots, and the open interest is 62,296 lots, down 168 lots; for the 2511 contract, the trading volume is 23,077 lots, up 1415 lots, and the open interest is 50,062 lots, up 3688 lots; for the 2601 contract, the trading volume is 24,645 lots, down 2465 lots, and the open interest is 41,503 lots, up 1681 lots [2] - **Spreads**: The 2509 basis is - 205 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; the 2511 basis is - 205 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton; the 2601 basis is - 435 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 0 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton; the 11 - 1 spread is - 230 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton [2] 4.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [3] 4.3 Market Logic - Currently in the off - season of consumption, downstream digestion ability is limited. Although group farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has increased, causing the spot price to fall rapidly. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. The macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, leading to a spread structure switch to a reverse spread. Piglet purchases will enter the off - season in August, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current phase of the futures market has entered the expected trading stage. The expectation of state reserve purchases has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted near - term sentiment. The spot prices have been continuously strengthening, and the futures market is undergoing basis repair. However, the futures prices are offering hedging profits, leading to increased market speculation. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, and subsequent spot performance should be monitored. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex, and factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer hog retention need to be considered. Traders should wait for subsequent spot market verification and pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of pigs in Henan is 14,980 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Sichuan, it is 14,450 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Guangdong, it is 16,640 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2509 contract is 14,245 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2511 contract is 13,685 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2601 contract is 13,780 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig 2509 contract is 28,287 lots, down 13,440 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 73,418 lots, down 3,761 lots from the previous day; the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 10,017 lots, down 5,700 lots, and an open interest of 41,964 lots, up 344 lots; the 2601 contract has a trading volume of 5,048 lots, down 2,654 lots, and an open interest of 19,369 lots, up 688 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig 2509 contract is 735 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2511 contract basis is 1,295 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 2601 contract basis is 1,200 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton year - on - year. The 9 - 11 spread is 560 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year, and the 11 - 1 spread is - 95 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]