Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Trend is strong, recommend long on dips and focus on the 11-1 calendar spread [6] - PTA: Unilateral trend is strong, focus on the 9-1/10-1 calendar spread [7] - MEG: Trend is strong, exit the 9-1 reverse calendar spread [7] 2) Core Views - PX follows the rise of PTA due to unexpected PTA plant shutdowns and the recovery of polyester demand in the peak season, forming a positive feedback loop and showing a short - term strong trend [6] - PTA's 8 - 9 month balance sheet shows significant inventory drawdown due to an unexpected plant shutdown, and with the increase in polyester plant operation rate, it will enter a tight - balance pattern, so 9-1/10-1 calendar spreads are favorable [7] - MEG has a tight spot supply with high basis, and low recent arrivals benefit the near - month contracts, but there are clear upside pressures from future new capacity, so no short - term chasing of long positions [7] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On the 21st, the price of PX increased significantly, with two 10 - month Asian spot transactions at 854 and 855, and two 11 - month Asian spot transactions at 849 and 851. The estimated price of PX on the 21st was 854 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars from the 20th [3] - **PTA**: A 250 - million - ton PTA plant in South China shut down for maintenance on the 21st, and another 250 - million - ton plant is expected to shut down around August 23rd for over a month. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 71.6%, and the operating rate was around 77.4% [3] - **MEG**: As of August 21st, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.16% (up 6.77% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 81.25% (up 0.78% from the previous period) [5] - **Polyester**: There were no changes in the whole polyester plants this week, but the local plant loads increased, and the overall polyester load in mainland China was around 90% as of Thursday. The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable, and the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn recovered to around 71% [5] Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6958 | 4860 | 4473 | 6614 | 490.9 | | Change | 6844 | 82 | - 4 | 110 | 8.1 | | Change Rate | 1.67% | 1.72% | - 0.09% | 1.69% | 1.68% | | Month Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | 162 | - 14 | - 54 | - 42 | - 6.2 | | Month Spread (Change) | 74 | 42 | - 4 | 20 | 0.7 | | Spot Price (Yesterday) | 852.33 dollars/ton | 4830 yuan/ton | 4518 yuan/ton | 584.5 dollars/ton | 68.12 dollars/barrel | | Spot Price (Change) | 14.33 | 144 | 16 | 9 | 0.57 | | Spot Processing Fee (Yesterday) | 255.5 | 197.31 | 175.93 | 27.32 | - 6.01 | | Spot Processing Fee (Change) | 2.5 | - 10.67 | 43.46 | 4.44 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - PTA trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - MEG trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] Sales Data - On the 21st, the overall sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were fair, with an average sales rate of around 70% by 3:30 pm [5] - On the 21st, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber improved, with an average sales rate of 89% by 3:00 pm [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report maintains a reverse spread strategy for the hog market [1] 2. Core View - In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increases, while retail farmers passively hold back hogs. With limited demand growth, the market faces significant pressure. The daily trading volume is poor, making it difficult to absorb market supply. As the September contract enters the pre - delivery month and the second position limit on the tenth trading day, the futures price is still at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. Attention should be paid to the market of premium convergence. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, presenting a situation of weak current reality and strong future expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse spread, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 13,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,290 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are 13,930 yuan/ton, 14,180 yuan/ton, and 14,415 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 60 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are 8,931 lots, 34,996 lots, and 12,459 lots respectively, with changes of - 1,234 lots, + 287 lots, and + 830 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 26,443 lots, 60,194 lots, and 44,010 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,287 lots, + 596 lots, and + 853 lots compared to the previous day [2] - **Spreads**: The basis of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are - 50 yuan/ton, - 300 yuan/ton, and - 535 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 160 yuan/ton, - 180 yuan/ton, and - 120 yuan/ton. The spreads between LH2509 and LH2511, and between LH2511 and LH2601 are - 250 yuan/ton and - 235 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 20 yuan/ton and + 60 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view on the market. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3] 3.3 Market Logic - In August, the market is under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand. The September contract's entry into the pre - delivery month and the large premium to the warehouse receipt cost increase the industry's delivery willingness. The macro sentiment supports far - end contracts, resulting in a reverse spread structure [4]

2025 年 8 月 8 日 生猪：成交偏差，维持反套 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 期货研究 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 13980 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 13350 | | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 15290 | | -250 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | 13870 | | 60 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 14100 | | 90 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 14395 | | 85 | | | | | 单 位 | 成 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: July 28, 2025 [1] - Report title: "Pigs: Strong Reality, Weak Expectations, Structural Switch to Trend Reverse Spread" [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The current situation of the pig market is characterized by strong reality and weak expectations, with the spread structure switching to a reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,180 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 13,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Futures prices**: The price of the pig 2509 contract is 14,385 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract is 14,385 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton; and the 2601 contract is 14,615 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading volume and open interest**: For the 2509 contract, the trading volume is 57,043 lots, down 22,144 lots, and the open interest is 62,296 lots, down 168 lots; for the 2511 contract, the trading volume is 23,077 lots, up 1415 lots, and the open interest is 50,062 lots, up 3688 lots; for the 2601 contract, the trading volume is 24,645 lots, down 2465 lots, and the open interest is 41,503 lots, up 1681 lots [2] - **Spreads**: The 2509 basis is - 205 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; the 2511 basis is - 205 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton; the 2601 basis is - 435 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 0 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton; the 11 - 1 spread is - 230 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton [2] 4.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [3] 4.3 Market Logic - Currently in the off - season of consumption, downstream digestion ability is limited. Although group farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has increased, causing the spot price to fall rapidly. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. The macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, leading to a spread structure switch to a reverse spread. Piglet purchases will enter the off - season in August, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Price Trend**: This week, the lithium carbonate futures prices first rose and then declined, with the main contract switching to 2509. The 2507 contract closed at 59,940 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2509 contract closed at 59,800 yuan/ton, down 1,120 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price increased by 450 yuan/ton to 60,650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply is on the rise as some smelting capacities resume production and salt - lake output increases seasonally. Lithium ore prices have stabilized, with the 6% grade lithium concentrate price rising slightly by 3 dollars to 629 dollars/ton. This week, lithium carbonate production was 18,127 tons, a 3.75% increase from last week. In terms of demand, the new - energy vehicle production and sales in May were good, with year - on - year increases of 35% and 36.9% respectively. The domestic "531" rush - to - install phenomenon in the energy - storage sector was obvious in May, but downstream procurement remains cautious. Inventory has increased, with a 0.84% increase in total lithium carbonate inventory this week [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly. For the 2507 contract, the price is expected to range between 55,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct reverse spreads in the inter - period trading, and sell - hedging at the upper end of the price range [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price Differences**: The SMM spot - futures basis (2507 contract) strengthened by 950 yuan/ton to 710 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was +270 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2507 - 2509 contract spread was 140 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan/ton week - on - week [1]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Prices**: Various lithium - related products in the industry chain showed different price changes. For example, the 629 - dollar/ton 6% grade lithium concentrate price increased by 0.48%, and the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.75% to 60,650 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Lithium Ore - **Supply and Price**: With the resumption of some smelting capacities and the seasonal increase in salt - lake output, overall production has increased significantly. Lithium ore procurement demand is fair, and prices have stabilized. The 6% grade lithium concentrate price rose slightly by 3 dollars to 629 dollars/ton [2]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: This week, lithium carbonate production was 18,127 tons, a 3.75% increase from last week. The overall smelting operating rate was 52.5%, up from last week [2]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - stream Consumption - Lithium Salt Products - **Price and Output**: The report presents multiple price and output charts of lithium salts, including battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc. It shows the historical price trends and output changes of these products over different time periods [18][19]. - **Inventory and Trade**: The total lithium carbonate inventory increased this week, with a 0.84% increase to 133,549 tons. The number of futures warehouse receipts decreased to 32,000 tons, and the cathode material inventory continued to decline [2]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Lithium Batteries and Materials - **New - Energy Vehicle and Energy - Storage Market**: In May, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 35% and 36.9%. In the energy - storage sector, the domestic "531" rush - to - install phenomenon was obvious in May, with a 413% year - on - year increase in the new - installed capacity [2]. - **Production and Operating Rate of Battery Materials**: The report provides charts of the monthly production and operating rates of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as the production and installation volume of lithium batteries [23][24].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The 07 contract will enter the delivery month for the first delivery, and there may be differences in the futures market supported by the delivery cost logic. Overall, the demand for logs has entered the traditional off - season, and the outbound volume is expected to decline further. Meanwhile, due to the low ex - works prices in May, traders had a high willingness to take delivery, and it is expected that there will still be pressure on arrivals in June. The spot market is stable with a weakening trend, and the fundamental situation remains in a weak balance. Currently, the futures price is close to the phased bottom. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for single - side trading. The main contract will shift to the 09 contract this month, and investors can pay attention to the changes in the inter - month spread and participate in reverse spreads [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on June 6 compared to June 4, with declines of 1.58%, 1.29%, and 1.08% respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of each contract also changed. Spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The import theoretical cost decreased slightly, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar also decreased slightly [2] Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port shipping volume in April increased by 39.0 million cubic meters compared to March, a growth rate of 24.17%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0, a growth rate of 13.79% [2] Inventory - The total inventory of major log ports in China decreased by 2.0 million cubic meters from May 23 to May 30, a decline of 0.58%. Inventory in Shandong decreased by 2.5 million cubic meters, a decline of 1.30%, while inventory in Jiangsu increased by 3.6 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 3.23% [2][3] Demand - The daily average outbound volume of logs in China increased slightly by 0.07 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 1%. In Shandong, it increased by 0.11 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 3%, while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.07 million cubic meters, a decline of 3% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual ratings for various commodities and futures in terms of "trend strength," which ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). For example, asphalt and methanol have a trend strength of 1 (bullish), while paper pulp has a trend strength of -1 (bearish), and many other commodities have a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [28][44][54]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market conditions, and price trends of multiple energy - chemical commodities. It suggests different trading strategies for each commodity, such as anti - arbitrage for p - xylene and PTA, and short - term trading decisions like not chasing short positions for LLDPE and PVC. The market is influenced by factors including supply - demand relationships, cost changes, geopolitical events, and policy impacts [2][9][31]. 3. Summary by Commodity P - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Fundamentals**: P - xylene prices declined, with a 1.4% daily drop on June 3, 2025. PTA supply increased due to the restart of a 300 - million - ton device, while demand decreased as polyester production was cut. MEG had a 1.0% daily price drop, and port inventory decreased by 6.6 million tons [4][6][7]. - **Market Views**: P - xylene faces negative feedback from the polyester industry, and month - spread anti - arbitrage is recommended. PTA's supply - demand imbalance leads to a shift from destocking to stockpiling, also suggesting anti - arbitrage. For MEG, the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG should be exited at high prices [9]. Rubber - **Fundamentals**: Rubber futures' trading volume decreased, and the number of short positions among the top 20 members declined. The inventory in Qingdao decreased by 0.5 million tons, a 0.80% decline [12][13]. - **Market Views**: Rubber is expected to trade in a range, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [11]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The price of butadiene, a raw material for synthetic rubber, decreased, and the inventory of butadiene production enterprises and ports increased. The supply of cis - polybutadiene rubber may decrease slightly, and demand remains high, but inventory is at a high level [15][18]. - **Market Views**: Synthetic rubber is at a low valuation and may rebound slightly in the short - term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [15]. Asphalt - **Fundamentals**: Asphalt futures prices increased, and the inventory of sample factories and social warehouses decreased. The price of crude oil rebounded [19][29]. - **Market Views**: Asphalt is expected to have short - term fluctuations, with a slightly bullish trend strength of 1 [19]. LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: LLDPE market prices declined slightly, and the supply pressure is high due to planned new capacity. Demand is weak as the agricultural film season is off - peak, and packaging film demand is average [30][31]. - **Market Views**: Short - term short - chasing is not recommended, and there may be a phased rebound, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [30]. PP - **Fundamentals**: PP market prices decreased slightly, and the cost support from upstream petrochemical factories weakened. Downstream demand was weak [35][36]. - **Market Views**: PP prices are expected to be stable with limited movement, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [35]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. In June, maintenance and alumina replenishment can support the market, but the sustainability of stockpiling is crucial [38][39][40]. - **Market Views**: Caustic soda has a strong current situation but weak expectations, and cost changes should be monitored, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [38]. Pulp - **Fundamentals**: Pulp futures prices decreased, and the market is in a weak and stable state. Port inventory is high, and downstream demand is weak [44][45]. - **Market Views**: Pulp is expected to trade weakly, with a bearish trend strength of - 1 [43]. Glass - **Fundamentals**: The price of glass raw sheets was stable, and market sentiment was bearish due to increased supply and a weakening futures market [48]. - **Market Views**: Glass is expected to be stable, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [47]. Methanol - **Fundamentals**: Methanol futures prices increased, and the spot market showed a mixed trend. Port inventory increased, and the market trading atmosphere improved [51][53]. - **Market Views**: Methanol is expected to rebound from a low level in the short - term, with a slightly bullish trend strength of 1 [51]. Urea - **Fundamentals**: Urea futures prices decreased slightly, and enterprise inventory increased. The supply is high, and the export policy may have a certain impact on the market [56]. - **Market Views**: Urea is expected to trade in a range, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [55]. Styrene - **Fundamentals**: Styrene prices were supported by the increase in crude oil prices during the Dragon Boat Festival. The downstream inventory structure improved, but high profits stimulated supply, and port inventory increased [59]. - **Market Views**: Styrene is expected to trade in a range in the short - term, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [59]. Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash market prices decreased slightly, and production increased slightly. Downstream demand was weak, with mainly rigid - demand restocking [65]. - **Market Views**: Soda ash is expected to be stable in the short - term, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [63]. LPG - **Fundamentals**: LPG futures prices increased, and the expected price of Saudi CP increased. The operating rate of PDH devices increased slightly [70][76]. - **Market Views**: LPG is affected by geopolitical factors, and the cost is relatively strong, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [68]. PVC - **Fundamentals**: PVC prices declined slightly, and the supply is expected to increase, while demand has not improved. The high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change [81][82]. - **Market Views**: Short - term short - chasing is not recommended, with a neutral trend strength of 0 [80]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: Fuel oil prices rebounded following crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil prices increased significantly. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the spot market narrowed [85]. - **Market Views**: Fuel oil is expected to have increased short - term fluctuations, and low - sulfur fuel oil is also volatile, both with a neutral trend strength of 0 [85]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamentals**: The container shipping index (European line) futures showed a mixed trend, and freight rates increased slightly. The supply and demand of shipping capacity are in a dynamic balance [88]. - **Market Views**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to trade at a high level, and the 10 - 12 anti - arbitrage position should be held [87].

Supply and Demand - Asian PX supply has increased with overall PX operating rates rising to 69.4% (+1.9%) and domestic PX operating rates reaching 78% (+3.9%) [2] - Demand has also seen an uptick with the restart of 1.2 million tons of PTA capacity from Zhongtai and Honggang, while Jiatuo's 3 million tons PTA unit is under maintenance, leading to PTA operating rates increasing to 77.1% (+0.2%) [2] Market Performance - On May 26, Asian PX prices rose by $8/ton to $834/ton, equivalent to 6905 RMB/ton, driven by crude oil price increases [1] - The spot market remains strong with July and August spot prices showing upward trends, with July at $838 and August at $824 [1] Market Outlook - PX supply is expected to gradually increase due to the recovery of PX profitability and the restart of previously shut-down facilities, while downstream polyester production cuts are being realized, leading to a marginal weakening in PX supply-demand dynamics [3] - Despite the pressure on PX prices, the short-term supply-demand situation remains relatively stable, with tight spot market conditions supporting PX prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European Line) is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits on the 6 - 8 reverse spread, and hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread. Pay attention to the new order booking progress in the first week of June and the actual impact on European line capacity. For EC2510, look for opportunities to short at high prices driven by price increases in the medium - to - long term [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2506 closed at 1,725.9 points, up 1.32% with a trading volume of 28,893 and an open interest of 25,555 (a decrease of 2,767). EC2508 closed at 2,263.1 points, down 2.8% with a trading volume of 78,252 and an open interest of 51,770 (a decrease of 2,281). EC2510 closed at 1,436.0 points, down 0.09% with a trading volume of 17,447 and an open interest of 24,087 (a decrease of 149) [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route was at 1,265.30 points, down 2.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route was at 1,446.36 points, down 0.6% week - on - week. The SCFI European route was at $1,154/TEU, down 0.6% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route was at $3,091/FEU, up 31.7% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot European Line Freight**: Different carriers' Shanghai - Rotterdam or Antwerp freight rates range from $1,637 - 2,179/40'GP and $1,011 - 1,305/20'GP [1]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was at 100.03, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was at 7.21 [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Geopolitical News**: US intelligence shows that Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, but the final decision has not been made, which may lead to a wider regional conflict in the Middle East [14]. - **Market Trends**: The container shipping index was in a high - level oscillation yesterday. EC2506 was relatively strong, and EC2508 was weak. The spot freight may rise slightly at the end of May. The first - round FAK implementation is better than expected, and the current 06 - converted freight is fairly valued. EC2508 has factored in expectations such as US line rush shipments. The US line container volume from China decreased in mid - April and bottomed out in early May, and the loading rate has rebounded to 97%. October is the traditional off - season for the European line [14].