【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月28日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.4个百分点至26.8%，较去年同期高了2.5个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减 幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比下跌1个百分点至14%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，国际油价带动船燃焦化下游采购积 极性，东北地区低硫沥青出货较多，全国出货量环比增加1.82%至22.77万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥 青炼厂库存率环比小幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严 重受限，这将影响国内沥青的生产和成本，有消息称大型贸易商维多中国报价委内瑞拉原油贴水5美 元/桶，这比2025年12月份的贴水13美元/桶大幅缩小，印度石油公司高管表示，委内瑞拉石油以每桶 较迪拜原油贴水4-5美元的折扣报价，国内炼厂获得委内瑞拉原油的可能性增加，但预计还是较美国 介入前大幅下降，关注国内炼厂原料短缺情况。本周山东地区部分地炼停产沥青，沥 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月27日 山东地区主流市场价维持在3140元/吨，沥青03合约基差维持在-139元/吨，处于偏低水平。 【行情分析】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.4个百分点至26.8%，较去年同期高了2.5个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减 幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比下跌1个百分点至14%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，国际油价带动船燃焦化下游采购积 极性，东北地区低硫沥青出货较多，全国出货量环比增加1.82%至22.77万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥 青炼厂库存率环比小幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕马杜罗引 发地缘政治局势动荡，与影响国内原油不同，委内瑞拉重油是国内地炼重要的低价原料，而此次美 国军事袭击之下，委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的生产和成本，目 ...

| | | 投资询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】31号 C 国贸期货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沥青数据日报 | | | | | | 是浙官 | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号:F03101843 数据来源:钢联 | 卢钊毅 | | | 2026/1/27 | | 글 | | 华东 东北 | 华北 | 华南 | 西北 | 山东 | | 现点 | 现值 | 3200 3440 | 3200 | 3220 | 3430 | 3140 | | 货 区 域 | 前值 | 3190 3440 | 3200 | 3190 | 3430 | 3090 | | 涨幅 | | 10 0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 50 | | 期 号 | | BU2602 BU2603 | | | | | | 现值 | | 3262 | 3279 | | | | | स्त हो | 前值 | 3222 | 3236 | | | | | 涨幅 | | 1.24% | 1.33% | | | | I ...

冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年1月26日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.4个百分点至26.8%，较去年同期高了2.5个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯 数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青 下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青开工环比下跌1个百分点至14%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，国际油价带动船燃焦化下 游采购积极性，东北地区低硫沥青出货较多，全国出货量环比增加1.82%至22.77万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比小 幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕马杜罗引发地缘政治局势动荡，与影响国内原油不同，委内瑞 拉重油是国内地炼重要的低价原料，而此次美国军事袭击之下，委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage. The supply is affected by refinery production adjustments and raw material supply, and the demand will further slow down due to seasonal factors. The current inventory is at a relatively low level, and the base price is also low [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - **Supply**: This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. Next week, some local refineries in Shandong will stop producing asphalt, and the operating rate will remain low [1]. - **Demand**: This week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. With the decrease in temperature, the northern road construction is gradually ending, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down, and the southern projects are also entering the final stage [1]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 23, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.6% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Price and Basis**: The price of asphalt in Shandong increased slightly, and the basis of the 03 contract rose to - 146 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [1][3]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 0.68% to 3236 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3210 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3256 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 16,693 to 186,664 lots [2]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply - Side Operating Rate**: Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil, causing the asphalt operating rate to decline by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [5]. - **Investment Data**: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. In 2025, from January to December, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [5]. - **Social Financing Data**: From January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to November, and the recovery of medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Short - term high - level volatile market [1] - PTA: High - level volatile market [1] - MEG: Limited upside space, medium - term pressure remains [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Cost support is relatively strong, hold long spreads. Supply is gradually loosening, and attention should be paid to the reduction scale caused by Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance [4] - PTA: Unilateral high - level volatile market, maintain long spreads. The PTA segment is still in continuous de - stocking [5] - MEG: The medium - term trend is still weak, conduct short spreads on the calendar spread. The supply of domestic ethylene glycol is still at a high level, and the rigid demand is declining [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: PX主力昨日收盘价7336, up 126 (1.75%); PTA主力5150, up 104 (2.06%); MEG主力3838, up 106 (2.84%); PF主力6532, up 70 (1.08%); SC主力428.2, up 6.5 (1.54%) [2] - **Calendar Spreads**: PX5 - 9 yesterday's closing price was 112, down 12; PTA5 - 9 was 90, unchanged; MEG5 - 9 was - 86, up 4; PF12 - 1 was - 54, up 16; SC11 - 12 was - 0.7, down 2.2 [2] - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR China was 902.67 dollars/ton, up 19; PTA in East China was 5080 yuan/ton, up 50; MEG spot was 3680 yuan/ton, up 40; Naphtha MOPJ was 534.25 dollars/ton, up 11.75; Dated Brent was 62.91 dollars/barrel, down 0.04 [2] - **Spot Processing Margins**: PX - naphtha spread was 363.88, up 7.92; PTA processing margin was 361.63, up 6.66; Staple fiber processing margin was 120.64, down 21.37; Bottle chip processing margin was 43.68, down 25.41; MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34, unchanged [2] 3.2 Market Dynamics - Crude oil: The market is worried about the long - term oversupply pressure, and the geopolitical situation has not shown new intensification, so international oil prices have fallen [2] - PX: In the afternoon, PX negotiation prices were stalemate. May paper goods were negotiated at 903/905, and there were buy - orders for June at 900 [3] - PTA: Turkey launched an investigation at the request of local PTA producers, focusing on the sharp increase in PTA imports, industrial damage and causal relationships. No interim measures have been proposed yet, and the investigation period is generally 6 - 12 months [3] - MEG: From January 5th to January 11th, the arrival quantity in Zhangjiagang was about 6.2 tons, in Taicang Port about 7.9 tons, in Ningbo about 3.7 tons, and in Shanghai about 0 tons. The planned arrival quantity at the main ports was about 17.8 tons [3] - Polyester: The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved moderately today. As of around 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 77%. The sales - to - production ratios of some factories were 80%, 80%, 60%, 90%, 80%, 60%, 100%, 30%, 80%, 30%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed individual differentiation. As of around 3:30 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was estimated to be about 50% [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 [4] - PTA trend intensity: 0 [4] - MEG trend intensity: 0 [4] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **PX Supply**: Fushun Petrochemical's 1 million - ton PX unit was restarted, and India's GAIL purchased Middle - East PX supplies for startup in March - April. The domestic PX operating rate increased to 90%. Attention should be paid to the maintenance plan of Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton unit [4] - **PTA Supply and Demand**: The processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk rose to over 300 yuan/ton. New Fengming's 2.5 million - ton Phase 1 and Zhongtai Chemical's 1.2 million - ton units were restarted, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The overall operating rate will remain at around 78%. Polyester filament factories cut production, while the operation of bottle chips and staple fibers remained stable. PTA is still in de - stocking [4][5] - **MEG Supply and Demand**: The domestic ethylene glycol supply is still at a high level of 73.73%, and Guangxi Huayi's 200,000 - ton unit was restarted. Overseas units such as China Taiwan's Nan Ya Plastics 720,000 - ton, Kuwait's 530,000 - ton, and Iran's 400,000 - ton units were under maintenance. The arrival volume this week rebounded to over 170,000 tons. The polyester unit operating rate is 90%, and the rigid demand for ethylene glycol is declining [5]

Report Core View - The egg market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with an inverse spread situation [1] Fundamental Tracking Futures Data - The closing price of egg2512 is 2,987 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.84%, a trading volume change of - 41,269, and an open interest change of - 14,044 [1] - The closing price of egg2601 is 3,499 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.68%, a trading volume change of 18,793, and an open interest change of 10,793 [1] Spread Data - The egg12 - 1 spread is - 242 (previous day: - 202) [1] - The egg12 - 5 spread is - 512 (previous day: - 444) [1] Spot Price Data - The spot prices in Liaoning, Shanxi are 3.00 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged from the previous day; the spot price in Hebei is 2.69 yuan/jin (previous day: 2.71 yuan/jin); the spot price in Hubei is 3.11 yuan/jin (previous day: 3.18 yuan/jin) [1] Industrial Chain Data - The corn spot price is 2,154 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,176 yuan/ton); the soybean meal spot price is 3,040 yuan/ton (previous day: 3,060 yuan/ton) [1] - The pig price in Henan is 11.68 yuan/kg (previous day: 11.98 yuan/kg) [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a neutral view, and the value range is within the [- 2,2] integer interval [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish view [3] 2) Core View of the Report - The contradiction in the pig market begins to be released, and a large reverse spread strategy is proposed [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 11,980 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the Sichuan spot price is 11,650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the Guangdong spot price is 12,760 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [1] Market Information - New delivery warehouses have been added by Yuexiu and Yangxiang - In September, the national feed output was 3.036 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [2] Futures Research - **Trading Data**: For the pig 2601 contract, the trading volume is 127,723 lots, an increase of 11,299 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 146,297 lots, an increase of 1,618 lots from the previous day; for the pig 2603 contract, the trading volume is 35,679 lots, an increase of 11,172 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 109,568 lots, an increase of 418 lots from the previous day; for the pig 2605 contract, the trading volume is 22,729 lots, an increase of 9,491 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 59,103 lots, an increase of 934 lots from the previous day [4] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of pig 2601 is -95 yuan/ton; the basis of pig 2603 is -500 yuan/ton; the basis of pig 2605 is -15 yuan/ton; the 1 - 3 spread is 295 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the 3 - 5 spread is 620 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is 120 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan; the 3 - 1 spread is 325 yuan/ton [4] - **Futures Prices**: The price of pig 2601 is 11,685 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of pig 2603 is 11,360 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the price of pig 2605 is 11,860 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The crude oil market has become pessimistic after OPEC+ plans to increase production, and traders generally expect lower oil prices. PX valuation has weakened, but the supply-demand pattern is tight due to upcoming new PTA plant launches and high polyester factory operation rates. It is recommended to partially close positions and focus on long PX short Brent. For PX, 11-01 calendar spread is in contango, and 1-5 is in backwardation. Also, for 01/05, long PX short PTA is suggested [10]. - For PTA, the cost side is weakening, and the valuation has declined. The support for PTA processing margin is weak. Despite the high polyester operation rate, PTA is in a destocking pattern, but there is significant future supply pressure. It is advisable to continue monitoring the 11-01 contango position and the PTA01/05 processing margin compression position [10]. - The market is focusing on the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical. The 01 contract faces significant pressure. It is recommended to focus on the 1-5 backwardation. Near - month spot has low inventory and strong basis. The unilateral price is in a weak and volatile market [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Prices - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6778, 4688, 4302, 6370, and 489.2 respectively. The price changes were 6770, -10, -17, 6, and 3, with percentage changes of 0.12%, -0.21%, -0.39%, 0.09%, and 0.62% [2]. - The 11-1 spread of PX was 60, PTA 11-1 was -14, MEG 1-5 was -48, PF 11-12 was 14, and SC 11-12 was 1.7 [2]. Spot Prices - The spot price of PX CFR China was 838.33 dollars/ton, PTA in East China was 4620 yuan/ton, MEG spot was 4422 yuan/ton, naphtha MOPJ was 604 dollars/ton, and Dated Brent was 66.3 dollars/barrel [2]. - The PX - naphtha spread was 233.75 dollars/ton, PTA processing margin was 131.77 yuan/ton, short - fiber processing margin was 208.61 yuan/ton, bottle - chip processing margin was 69.09 yuan/ton, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread was -6.01 dollars/ton [2]. Market Dynamics - PX: The naphtha price declined slightly. PX prices were stable, with some spot transactions. The supply from the Middle East is limited due to strong gasoline demand. China's Fujia Dahua plans to shut down its 700,000 - ton/year No. 2 PX production line for maintenance [4][6]. - PTA: Some PTA plants in China restarted, and the PTA load reached 76.8%. A 110 - million - ton PTA plant in South China plans to conduct maintenance in mid - to - late October [7]. - MEG: The overall operating load in China was 74.91%, with the syngas - to - MEG operating load at 76.69%. An Xinjiang 150,000 - ton/year syngas - to - MEG plant shut down, and an Iranian 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant is restarting [7][8]. - Polyester: The operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was about 75%, and the overall polyester load in China reached about 91.6%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were mixed [8]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG were all 0, indicating a neutral view [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: 11 - 01 positive spread trading, 1 - 5 negative spread trading. Long on dips before mid - September for single - side price. Focus on 11 - 1 positive spread trading due to tight supply - demand [7] - PTA: Follow the downward trend of crude oil. Focus on 11 - 1 positive spread trading for monthly spread and long PTA short PX for processing fees [7] - MEG: Short - term trend is weak due to the decline of coal and crude oil prices [7] Core Viewpoints - Due to weakening demand clues, Asian paraxylene prices declined on September 3. Spot PX prices may continue to fall, which may prompt producers to cut production in the short term [3][4] - PTA's profit margin is in trouble, and its price dropped on September 3. Its monthly spread is recommended to focus on 11 - 1 positive spread trading [5][7] - MEG's internal market continued to be weak in the afternoon of September 3, and its short - term trend is weak [6][7] - Polyester's sales on September 3 were generally weak [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On September 3, PX price fell. The estimated price was 843 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars from September 2. One 10 - month Asian spot was traded at 844, and three 11 - month Asian spots were traded at 842, 842, 841.5 respectively. The end - of - session physical goods were negotiated at 844/846 for October and 841/844 for November [2] - PTA: On September 3, PTA spot price dropped to 4705 yuan/ton, with the mainstream basis at 01 - 51 [5] - MEG: In the afternoon of September 3, MEG's internal market continued to be weak, with the current spot basis at a premium of 86 - 91 yuan/ton over the 01 contract [6] - Polyester: On September 3, the sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak overall, with an average sales rate of 3 - 4% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 41% by 3:00 pm [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of paraxylene, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a weak trend [6] Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6810, 4732, 4331, 6410, and 493.2 respectively, with changes of - 0.35%, - 0.50%, - 0.18%, - 0.47%, and 0.57% [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The closing prices of PX11 - 1, PTA11 - 1, MEG1 - 5, PF11 - 12, and SC11 - 12 were 48, - 12, - 38, 12, and 0.5 respectively, with changes of - 4, 4, 3, - 4, and - 0.3 [2] - **Spot**: The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 843 dollars/ton, 4700 yuan/ton, 4434 yuan/ton, 605 dollars/ton, and 69.43 dollars/barrel respectively, with changes of - 3 dollars/ton, - 27 yuan/ton, - 19 yuan/ton, 4.5 dollars/ton, and 0.52 dollars/barrel [2] - **Spot Processing Fee**: The PX - naphtha price difference, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil price difference were 251.29, 188.78, 137.74, - 51.65, and - 6.01 respectively, with changes of - 3.5, - 32.89, - 18.09, 38.94, and 0 [2]