Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Chengdu has optimized its housing fund loan policies and canceled sales restrictions, aiming to promote a stable and healthy development of the real estate market [3][9] - The supply side focuses on improving quality and revitalizing existing stock, with measures to promote balanced regional development and enhance living conditions in non-core areas [3][9] - The demand side has seen a reduction in the down payment ratio for second homes and a phased cancellation of sales restrictions, which is expected to stimulate market activity [4][10] Weekly Data Tracking - New home transactions in 30 major cities showed a week-on-week increase of 22.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, indicating ongoing pressure in the market [5][11] - Second-hand home transactions also faced challenges, with a year-on-year decline of 7.1% in the latest week, marking the first negative growth this year [5][11][12] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on two main areas for investment: leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and well-structured land reserves, such as Poly Developments, and top real estate agencies benefiting from active second-hand home transactions, like I Love My Home [6][22]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of the pig market is characterized by strong expectations but weak reality, and attention should be paid to path changes [1] - In the short - term, the spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly, and the futures price of the LH2509 contract will be in the range of 13000 - 14500 yuan/ton, with the 2026 contract entering the industrial profit - locking logic stage [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Market Review (7.21 - 7.27) - **Spot Market**: Pig prices are running weakly. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan is 37.5 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan is 14.18 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide is 1628 yuan/head. The supply side shows a slight increase from large - scale farms and some reluctance to sell from smallholders. The demand side remains at a low level and is suppressed by high temperatures. The average slaughter weight nationwide is 124.68KG, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21% [2] - **Futures Market**: Pig futures prices fluctuate significantly. The highest price of the LH2509 contract is 15150 yuan/ton, the lowest is 14160 yuan/ton, and the closing price is 14385 yuan/ton. The basis of the LH2509 contract is - 205 yuan/ton [2] Next Week's Market Outlook (7.28 - 8.03) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly. In the off - season, the adjustment of slaughter volume by large - scale farms has a greater impact on prices. As the peak season approaches in the second half of the year, the release of social inventory will increase, and the influence of large - scale farms will decline. In August, the contradictions will start to be released. The supply side has relatively high inventory accumulation, and the demand side is suppressed by high temperatures. The policy of purchases for storage may provide support [3] - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract price has been affected by strong macro - sentiment this week. However, as it approaches the position - limit period, it will gradually return to the industrial logic. The far - month 2026 contract will enter the industrial profit - locking logic stage. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4] Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week's basis is - 205 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 monthly spread is 0 yuan/ton [9] - **Supply**: The average weight this week is 124.68KG. In May, pork production was 549.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%; in June, pork imports were 8.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week (7.14 - 7.20), the spot market for live pigs showed weak performance. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 37.7 yuan/kg, the live pig price in Henan dropped from 14.83 yuan/kg last week to 14.43 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide rose from 1623 yuan/head to 1628 yuan/head. The supply side saw a slight increase from large - scale farms and some smallholders selling their pigs as the market conditions were right. The demand side remained low, and the high temperature restricted the increase in demand. The average slaughter weight nationwide increased by 0.02% week - on - week to 124.94KG. In the futures market, the live pig futures price was also weak. The LH2509 contract had a high of 14360 yuan/ton, a low of 13905 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14135 yuan/ton (down from 14345 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2509 contract decreased from 485 yuan/ton last week to 295 yuan/ton [2]. - Next week (7.21 - 7.27), the spot price of live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly. During the off - season, large - scale farms' adjustment of slaughter volume has a greater impact on prices, but this influence will decline in the peak season. It is expected that contradictions will be released in August. From the supply perspective, there was continuous restocking from February to May and bottom - fishing by secondary fattening in June, resulting in a low vacancy rate of pigsties and a relatively high inventory accumulation. The slaughter progress of large - scale farms was slow in July, and there is still pressure in the future. From the demand perspective, the actual demand in July was significantly weaker than in June, and the high - temperature months of July and August will suppress demand. Although the secondary fattening sales policy has tightened and there is passive freezing of pork into storage, the government's purchase and storage policy may provide support. There were still a small number of secondary fattening entries in July, and the idle space in pigsties is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the release of pressure in the peak season [3]. - For the futures market, the LH2509 contract closed at 14135 yuan/ton on July 18. The spot price weakened continuously this week, and the slaughter digestion capacity decreased, causing a large decline in the September contract. However, there is an expectation of government purchase and storage, which may drive the spot price up at the end and beginning of the month, leading to a rebound in the futures market. The near - term policy and reality interact, and the September contract is in the position - reducing stage, with increased volatility. As the peak season for piglet purchases ends, and both the spot performance and feed data confirm future supply increases, the 2026 contracts will enter the stage of locking in profits by the industry. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review (7.14 - 7.20) - **Spot Market**: In Henan, the price of 20KG piglets remained unchanged at 37.7 yuan/kg, the live pig price dropped from 14.83 yuan/kg to 14.43 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide rose from 1623 yuan/head to 1628 yuan/head. The supply side had a slight increase from large - scale farms and some smallholders selling their pigs, while the demand side was restricted by high temperatures. The average slaughter weight nationwide increased by 0.02% week - on - week to 124.94KG [2]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract had a high of 14360 yuan/ton, a low of 13905 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14135 yuan/ton (down from 14345 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2509 contract decreased from 485 yuan/ton last week to 295 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook (7.21 - 7.27) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly. The influence of large - scale farms on prices will decline in the peak season. Supply pressure remains due to previous restocking, and demand will be suppressed by high temperatures. The government's purchase and storage policy may provide support, and there were still some secondary fattening entries in July [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract closed at 14135 yuan/ton on July 18. The September contract may rebound due to the expectation of government purchase and storage, but it is in the position - reducing stage with increased volatility. The 2026 contracts will enter the stage of locking in profits by the industry. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: This week, the basis was 295 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was 500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply Data**: The average weight this week was 124.91KG (unchanged from last week). In May, the pork production was 549.6 tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase, and the pork import was 9.37 million tons, a 16.17% month - on - month increase [12].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The reserve policy stabilizes pig prices and boosts confidence, and the phased reduction in volume and weight by enterprises supports the rebound of spot and futures prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply is expected to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Futures are currently in a rebound, but are still affected by the off - season demand and loose supply - demand in the long run [9] Group 4: Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures: On the 25th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened flat, fluctuated higher, and closed positive. The highest was 14,015 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,930 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,000 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 813 lots to 164,612 lots. - Spot: On the 25th, the national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 14.48 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - Demand: The fat - to - standard price spread remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment was low, only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait - and - see state, weakening the support for prices. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, slaughter enterprise orders were average, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume remained low. On June 25th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 143,200 heads, down 100 heads from the previous day and 3,300 heads from a week ago. - Supply: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Currently, enterprises are reducing volume and weight in a phased manner, the slaughter volume of large pigs is declining, and the slaughter weight has decreased slightly [9] 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 8.57% [10] 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year increase of 14.3% - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten - day period - As of the week of June 19th, the national average slaughter weight was 128.28 kg, a decrease of 0.54 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42% - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten - day period. The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of June 19th was 0.07 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [19]

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: June 25, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The state reserve policy stabilizes pig prices and boosts confidence, and the phased reduction in volume and weight by enterprises supports the rebound of spot and futures prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply is expected to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - peak season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Futures are currently in a rebound situation, but are still affected by the off - peak demand season and loose supply - demand in the medium to long term [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: On the 24th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened flat, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated down, closing with a negative line. The highest was 14,060 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,905 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,940 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decline from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 4,338 lots to 165,425 lots. The national average price of foreign three - way pigs was 14.46 yuan/kg, a 0.05 yuan/kg increase from the previous day [9] - **Market Analysis**: On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment was low, only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait - and - see state, and the support for prices weakened. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, slaughter enterprise orders were average, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughter enterprises remained low. On the supply side, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May, and the slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Currently, enterprises are reducing volume and weight in a phased manner, the slaughter volume of large pigs has declined, and the slaughter weight has decreased slightly [10] 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a 0.92% month - on - month increase and an 8.57% year - on - year increase [11] 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a 1.32% month - on - month increase and a 14.3% year - on - year increase [20] - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous ten - day period [20] - As of the week of June 19, the average national slaughter weight was 128.28 kg, a 0.54 - kg decrease from the previous week, a 0.42% month - on - month decrease [20] - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period. The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of June 19 was 0.07 yuan/jin, a 0.01 yuan/jin increase from the previous week [20]

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 24, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 23rd, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened higher, then bottomed out and rebounded in a narrow range, closing with a negative line at the end of the session. The highest was 14,010 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,925 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 0.94% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 756 lots to 161,087 lots [9]. - Spot: On the 23rd, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.41 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Pig Comment - Demand side: The price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening to replenish inventory was low. Only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait-and-see state, weakening the support for prices. As the temperature rose, terminal demand weakened, the orders of slaughtering enterprises were average, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises remained low. On June 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 144,100 heads, a decrease of 800 heads from the previous day and a decrease of 1,400 heads from a week ago [10]. - Supply side: According to the sample data of Yongyi, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase compared with the actual slaughter volume in May, and the slaughter volume continued to increase month-on-month. Currently, enterprises were reducing the volume and weight of slaughtering in stages, and the slaughter volume of large pigs decreased, resulting in a slight decrease in the slaughter weight [10]. - Overall: The purchasing and storage policy played a role in stabilizing pig prices and boosting confidence. At the same time, the phased reduction in volume and weight of enterprises continued to support the rebound of futures and spot prices. However, in the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs was expected to continue to increase, while the demand entered the seasonal off-season, and the situation of loose supply and demand remained unchanged. In the futures market, the current futures contracts were all at a discount to the spot market. The purchasing and storage policy and the reduction in volume and weight by the breeding side brought a short-term rebound, which was still regarded as a rebound market. In the medium and long term, it was still affected by the off-season demand and loose supply and demand, and was likely to be weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the future purchasing and storage policy [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.92% and a year-on-year increase of 8.57% [11][13]. Group 4: Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 1.32% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [18]. - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten days [18]. - As of the week of June 19th, the average slaughter weight nationwide was 128.28 kg, a decrease of 0.54 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.42% [18]. - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten days. The price difference between 150 kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of June 19th was 0.07 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent pork futures market shows a slight increase in prices due to government reserve policies, although the long-term supply-demand situation remains loose [1] Supply Side - The planned slaughter volume for June is 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from May's actual slaughter [1] - The number of breeding sows in sample farms is 1.147 million heads, a 0.92% increase month-on-month and an 8.57% increase year-on-year [1] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered in the week ending June 13 is 128.82 kg, a decrease of 0.35 kg from the previous week [1] Demand Side - The average price of external three-yuan pigs is 14.23 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The utilization rate of fattening pens is 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points week-on-week [1] - The demand from slaughter enterprises remains weak, with a general order volume and low operating rates [1] Policy Impact - On June 11, the central government conducted a reserve auction for 10,000 tons of frozen pork, with transaction prices ranging from 20.3 to 20.8 yuan/kg [1] - The reserve policy is expected to stabilize pork prices and boost market confidence in the short term [1] - The futures contracts are currently trading at a discount to the spot market, indicating a short-term rebound due to the reserve policy, but long-term demand remains weak [1]

Summary of Rubber Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the natural rubber industry, particularly in Thailand and China, discussing supply, demand, pricing, and market dynamics for 2025 [1][2][5][6]. Key Points Supply Dynamics - Thailand's natural rubber exports increased by over 30% from January to May 2025, while production only grew by 5-8%, leading to accelerated domestic inventory depletion [1][2]. - Domestic prices for raw rubber in Hainan have been declining since May 2025, despite a late harvesting season [2][4]. - The total production of all-latex in Yunnan reached 20,000 tons by early June 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year, contributing to a weaker RU futures market [4][6]. - Upstream processing profits are relatively low, with losses between $10 and $20 per ton, indicating a less severe loss compared to previous years [2][3]. Import Trends - Domestic natural rubber imports increased by over 20% from January to May 2025, but low import profits since April have reduced import enthusiasm, potentially leading to a decline in imports starting August [5][6]. Demand Trends - The demand side is showing weakness, with increased inventory levels and reduced confidence among tire manufacturers. The cancellation of automotive incentives has further dampened expectations for vehicle sales in the second half of 2025 [6][7]. - The overall demand for natural rubber is expected to weaken in the second half of 2025, with supply growth outpacing demand growth significantly [7][8]. Price Outlook - The supply growth rate is projected to exceed 20% in the first half of 2025, while demand growth is only 2-3%, indicating a supply surplus for the year [7][8]. - If rapid inventory depletion occurs starting in August, it may support spot prices, leading to potential price recovery in the latter half of the year [7][8]. Market Risks and Considerations - The market is currently in a weak oscillation phase, with limited upward momentum and potential for further declines if supply remains stable and demand continues to weaken [8][9]. - The upstream sector is facing losses of 500-600 RMB per ton, which could create a relatively safe short position if raw material prices do not decline [9][10]. - The impact of international oil price increases on synthetic rubber could indirectly affect natural rubber prices, although no significant changes have been observed yet [12]. Future Market Influences - The development of the electric vehicle industry and the cancellation of subsidies may negatively impact automotive consumption, leading to increased inventory pressure on tire manufacturers [13][14]. - The U.S. tariffs on Chinese tire exports could affect the market dynamics, particularly for semi-steel and full-steel tires, with potential implications for pricing and supply chains [15][16]. Production Capacity Adjustments - Major global tire manufacturers have begun to reduce production capacity in response to economic conditions and raw material price fluctuations, which may lead to short-term supply reductions and price support [23]. - China's tire production capacity expansion in Southeast Asia contrasts with the global trend of capacity reduction, indicating a potential oversupply situation in the future [24][25]. Conclusion - The natural rubber market is currently characterized by a supply surplus, weak demand, and declining prices, with various external factors influencing future trends. The industry must navigate these challenges while monitoring inventory levels and potential policy changes that could impact market dynamics [1][7][24].

Report Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Core Viewpoints - US biodiesel policy and Middle - East situation push up US soybean prices, increasing import costs. In China, ample soybean supply and high - level oil mill operations lead to rising bean - meal inventory. With the increase in import costs, bean - meal spot prices stabilize, and market trading volume drops significantly. In the short term, the bean - meal market is in a weak - reality and strong - expectation situation with a likely oscillatory trend [17] - For the pig market, the supply side has a normal slaughter rhythm and decreasing average slaughter weight, with increasing medium - term supply pressure. The demand side is in a seasonal off - peak, with weak consumption unable to support prices. Although the pig futures price rebounds in the short term due to policies and feed price hikes, weak demand restricts the spot price increase, and the basis weakens rapidly, potentially limiting the upside of the futures market. Pig prices are expected to oscillate [17] Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - DCE bean - meal main contract 2509 rose 0.13% to 3045 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous day. Coastal oil mills' quotes increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. DCE pig main contract 2509 fell 0.07% to 13780 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract rose 2.44% to 1069 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Main Production Areas - On June 13, in the US Midwest agricultural main production areas, the western region will have scattered to widespread scattered showers until Sunday. Before Saturday, the southern region's temperature is near to above normal, and the northern region's temperature is below normal, then above normal from Sunday to Monday. The eastern region will have scattered showers until Sunday and scattered to widespread scattered showers on Monday. Before Saturday, the temperature is near to above normal, near normal on Sunday, and near to above normal on Monday. Rainfall in the southern part of the US Midwest has decreased since the middle of this week [4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - From June 7 to 13, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%, 28,600 tons lower than expected [5] - On June 16, the import cost of US soybeans was 4603 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3812 yuan/ton, up 91 yuan/ton; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3669 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [5] - On June 13, the total bean - meal sales of major oil mills in China were 97,300 tons, a decrease of 570,600 tons from the previous day. Spot sales were 69,300 tons, an increase of 4400 tons, and far - month basis sales were 28,000 tons, a decrease of 575,000 tons. The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 64.82%, a decrease of 1.34% from the previous day [5] - As of June 12, the soybean harvest rate in Argentina in the 2024/25 season was 95%, up from 91% the previous week and lower than 97% in the same period last year [5] - As of the week of June 11, the rapeseed planting rate in Saskatchewan, Canada, was 99.73%, an increase of 2.8% from the previous week [6] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs decreased. On June 12, the average weight of slaughtered pigs was 125.76 kg/head, a decrease of 0.24 kg/head from the previous week. Farmers' bearish expectations led to active weight - loss slaughter, and the proportion of standard pigs purchased by slaughterhouses increased [6] - On June 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 120 yuan/head, a decrease of 23 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was 127 yuan/head, a decrease of 9 yuan/head. Due to weak demand and increased supply, both types of profits decreased [6] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year, 1.3 percentage points faster than the previous month. From January to May, service retail sales increased by 5.2%, 0.1 percentage point faster than from January to April [6] - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The unemployment rate of the main employment population remained stable, and the youth unemployment rate decreased for three consecutive months [7] - In May, China's new social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, and new RMB deposits were nearly 2.18 trillion yuan. At the end of May, M2 increased by 7.9% year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [7] 4. Data Charts - The report includes charts of bean - meal, rapeseed - meal, and pig prices, as well as their basis and inventory data [10][12][14][15] 5. Analysis and Strategies - For bean - meal, short - term trends are oscillatory due to the combination of high domestic supply and increasing import costs [17] - For pigs, prices are expected to oscillate due to the contradiction between supply pressure and weak demand [17]

Summary of Poly Developments Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Poly Developments - **Period**: January to April 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Performance - **Sales Performance**: Poly Developments achieved sales of 877 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, but still ranked first in the industry [3] - **Core City Sales**: Sales in core cities accounted for 91% of total sales, up from 90% in 2024. The sales contribution from core cities and new projects was significant, with new projects accounting for 64% of sales [3][20] - **Market Trends**: The market experienced a slight rebound followed by a decline, with visitor numbers dropping by 16% year-on-year. However, the conversion rate improved, and total transactions remained stable compared to the previous year [7] Financial Performance - **Cost of Funds**: The average cost of interest-bearing liabilities was approximately 2.8%, a decrease of 12 basis points year-on-year. The comprehensive cost of interest-bearing liabilities fell below 3% for the first time, currently at 2.96%, down 21 basis points [6] - **Investment Confidence**: The company has set aside an investment quota of 100 billion yuan for 2025, expressing confidence in achieving its annual targets [5] Land Acquisition and Development - **Project Expansion**: In the first four months of 2025, Poly Developments expanded 15 projects covering 1.46 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 114%, with an investment amount of 30.8 billion yuan, up 315% [2][4] - **Land Bank**: As of the end of 2024, the company had approximately 52.8 million square meters of undeveloped land, with plans to address some through land storage policies [15] - **Equity Ratio**: The company maintained a high equity ratio in land acquisitions, reflecting confidence in market prospects and financial stability [8] Profitability and Margins - **Profit Margins**: The company aims for a pre-tax profit margin of no less than 15% on new land acquisitions. The overall gross margin is expected to exceed 20% if the pre-tax profit margin is achieved [10] - **Future Projections**: The settlement gross margin for 2025 is expected to remain stable compared to 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in 2026 and 2027 [12] Strategic Measures - **Inventory Management**: The company employs a sales-driven production strategy, ensuring that completed but unsold properties are managed effectively to maintain cash flow and sales prices [13] - **Response to Market Conditions**: The company is actively engaging with local governments to leverage policies that support land storage and project development, particularly in lower-tier cities [16] Financing and Capital Structure - **Convertible Bonds**: Poly Developments has received approval for a convertible bond issuance, aiming to optimize its capital structure and enhance risk resistance [21] - **Future Financing Plans**: The company plans to continue capital operations in line with policy opportunities, although no new product plans have been disclosed yet [22] Risk Management - **Impairment Pressures**: The company recorded an impairment of 5.5 billion yuan in 2024, with future pressures dependent on market trends. Management believes that market stabilization will alleviate these pressures [17] - **Cash Flow Management**: The introduction of pilot cities for immediate sales may impact cash flow, but the company is prepared to adapt its development processes to mitigate risks [18][19] Additional Insights - **Sales Strategy**: The company is focusing on enhancing the quality and speed of project execution, particularly in key markets like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou [3][20] - **Market Position**: Poly Developments has a market share of 7.1% in core cities, with expectations for continued growth in market presence [20]