新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-08 库存持续积压，多晶硅震荡下行 工业硅： 工业硅价格预计将维持区间震荡，供需双减的情况下叠加焦煤价格上涨与光伏产业链价格上涨传导效果，价格支 撑明显。上行高度取决于下游需求恢复和库存去化进度，下行空间则受成本支撑和减产预期限制。 单边：短期区间操作 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场分析 2026-01-07，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于9050元/吨，最后收于8980元/吨，较前一日结算变化（95） 元/吨，变化（1.07）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓244734手，2026-01-06仓单总数为10799手，较前一日变化 112手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计12月31日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.7万吨，较上周变化0.36%。 消费端：据SMM统 ...

新能源及有色金属月报 | 2026-01-04 产需不匹配格局仍存，多晶硅偏强宽幅震荡 工业硅：供需双弱下，价格区间震荡，成本维持支撑 现货市场 供应：据百川盈孚统计，截止12月底，国内工业硅总炉数796台，12月开炉数量与11月相比增加 23 台，截至 12 月 25日，中国金属硅开工炉数 243 台，整体开炉率 30.53%。 12月西北开炉增加明显，西北地区金属硅开工增加， 其中新疆地区开炉数 152 台，陕西开炉数 1台，青海开炉数 3台，宁夏开炉 18 台，甘肃开炉 18台。月度产量环 比增加较多，2025年11月份工业硅预计产量在40.17万吨，环比减少11.2%，同比减少0.7%。2025年1-11月工业硅累 计产量387.16万吨，同比减少15.2%。近期硅企开工有增有减，以减为主，预计工业硅供应量预期减弱。 消费：12月下游需求延续收紧趋势。多晶硅方面，持续收紧但整体下降幅度不大。虽然西南地区受枯水期影响， 部分企业大幅减产甚至停产，但西北地区存在增量情况，对金属硅需求减少。12月产量多晶硅产量约11.45万吨， 较上月小幅降低。有机硅12月底开工率在 68.33%，华东，华北多家单体厂降负 ...

北京地产新政解读及 26 年政策展望 20251227 摘要 北京率先放松购房限制，降低社保年限要求，为其他城市提供政策参考， 预示着国家层面支持房地产市场需求端和供给端的新动向，对稳定市场 预期具有重要意义。 未来房地产改革将侧重于公积金制度等基础性制度建设，如扩面、跨区 域流通和资金共享，各项政策需协同执行，以应对房地产市场连续四年 下跌的局面。 预计 2026 年房地产政策将采取"小步快跑"策略，供给端和需求端均 有支持措施，但不会一次性全面放开，政策调整将是逐步进行而非一步 到位。 地方财政贴息买房的可行性受限于地方财力，大规模推广难度大，更可 能作为储备性工具而非普遍实施，中央财政直接参与的可能性较小，倾 向于通过降低 LPR 等间接方式支持市场。 当前房地产市场处于僵持状态，不期待突发事件打破现状，政府更注重 将房地产融入整体经济社会发展框架，通过侧向刺激实现发展，高质量 发展和内需提升是主要方向。 Q&A 北京近期出台的房地产政策有哪些值得关注的点？这些政策是否意味着北京在 全国范围内起到了示范作用？ 地方财政贴息买房主要取决于地方财力。目前已有一些小范围试点，但大规模 推广难度较大。例如广州从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing a prolonged period of oversupply, leading to significant price declines and deep losses for producers, with the current average price of live pigs falling nearly 30% year-on-year [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shift in trading focus from the 2601 to the 2603 futures contract indicates a temporary easing of pressure on near-term contracts, but the overall rebound remains weak due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [1]. - As of the end of November, the average price of live pigs in China is between 11.4 to 11.7 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a substantial year-on-year decrease [2]. - The current pig production capacity reduction is slow, with only about 800,000 fewer breeding sows in the year, despite a recent decline in the breeding sow population below 40 million for the first time in 15 months [2][3]. Group 2: Production Capacity Challenges - The slow pace of capacity reduction is attributed to three main factors: the resilience of large-scale farms, incomplete capacity reduction among smallholders, and an increase in the number of heavier pigs being raised [2][3]. - Large-scale farms are less inclined to reduce production due to their financial and technical advantages, with a slight increase in breeding sow numbers in certain regions [2]. - Smallholder farmers are hesitant to reduce their herds, hoping for a rebound in prices due to seasonal demand, which has led to a lack of significant capacity reduction [2][5]. Group 3: Supply Pressure and Market Expectations - The phenomenon of secondary fattening has intensified supply pressures, with a notable increase in the proportion of heavier pigs being sold, exacerbating the oversupply situation [4][5]. - Producers are facing a "price inversion" situation where the cost of fattening exceeds the selling price, leading to increased losses [4]. - The expectation of a recovery in demand has not materialized, with consumer spending on dining out at a 15-month low, further complicating the market dynamics [5]. Group 4: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The current regulatory framework aims to balance long-term production capacity control with short-term market stabilization measures, but the effectiveness of these policies is limited by the deep supply-demand imbalance [6][7]. - The Ministry of Agriculture has set a target for breeding sow numbers and will implement counter-cyclical management to address significant deviations from this target [7]. - The temporary meat storage policy is intended to provide short-term market support, but its impact is minimal due to limited storage capacity and the time lag in implementation [7][8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The effects of production capacity adjustments are expected to manifest in 10 to 12 months, while immediate price pressures can only be temporarily alleviated through storage policies [8]. - Without a substantial recovery in consumer demand, the overall weak market conditions in the pig industry are likely to persist [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The polysilicon industry is facing a situation where the high profits in the silicon material segment are extremely disconnected from the cash - flow pressure in the downstream segments, and there is a continuous game between high inventory and market - expected capital. The current market quotation is over - valued in the short term, and the profitability of the mid - and downstream industries is not optimistic [4][62]. - The short - term game between downstream companies' cash - flow preservation and upstream companies' price - holding and sales - hoarding continues. Downstream companies prioritize cash flow, shrink capital expenditures, and most companies postpone expansion plans. Upstream silicon material companies rely on policy expectations to hold prices [4][6][58]. - Future supply - side reduction requires policy support to eliminate production capacity and the cooperation of downstream demand. The probability of the establishment of a debt - bearing platform company by the end of the year is increasing, but it will take time to realize the supply - side production capacity reduction [4]. - The valuation of polysilicon is high in the short term, with significant differences. In the long term, companies with industrial chain integration and cost - control capabilities will have higher valuation premiums [59][60][61]. Summary by Directory Policy Aspect: Strengthened Expectation of Storage Policy Implementation, Likely to be Completed This Year - Since the second half of this year, "anti - involution" policy signals have been intensively released, and the market's expectation for the clearance and supply - side reform of the polysilicon industry has increased. High - level meetings have emphasized the construction of a unified market and the withdrawal of backward production capacity [13]. - In September, new energy consumption - related policies were introduced to improve terminal demand, but the full solution of terminal demand limitations still takes time, and the installation expectations for next year are not optimistic [18]. - By October, progress was made in the establishment of a platform company for production capacity storage, but the actual implementation of production capacity reduction still requires policy and practical support [14]. Fundamental Aspect: Disconnection between Upstream and Downstream, and Regional Differentiation Industrial Chain Internal: Severe Mismatch between Silicon Material and Downstream Demand, High Inventory as the Core Problem - There is an extreme gap between the high profits in the silicon material segment and the cash - flow pressure in the downstream segments. Silicon material companies maintain high profit margins, while downstream companies such as silicon wafer and battery cell manufacturers face losses [19][24]. - The high inventory of over 400,000 tons in the silicon material segment is the core problem, and there is a slight accumulation trend. The production schedule of polysilicon in October increased by 6% month - on - month, while the component production schedule decreased by 5% month - on - month [19]. - The digestion of high inventory requires a boost in terminal demand, but the future growth rate of domestic terminal installations cannot reach previous levels, and the possibility of significant inventory reduction in the short term is low [27][28]. Regional Supply and Demand: Profit - Driven Operation, Significant Structural Differentiation - In the silicon material segment, leading companies maintain high profits, but production is restricted by policies. In November, the production of silicon material in Inner Mongolia will decrease, but there may be complementary production capacity from other regions [35][40]. - Downstream segments are generally in a loss state, relying on OEM to survive. Component companies face cost pressure from raw materials and weak terminal demand [39]. - In different regions, Inner Mongolia's production is expected to decline due to high electricity prices and policy restrictions; Xinjiang's production is stable due to low - cost energy advantages; the southwest region faces challenges such as rising electricity prices during the dry season and contradictions between production capacity planning and short - term production [40][43][53]. Capital Operation: Differentiation between Cash - Flow Orientation and Capital Layout - In the short term, there is a continuous game between downstream companies' cash - flow preservation and upstream companies' price - holding and sales - hoarding. Downstream companies prioritize cash flow, shrink capital expenditures, and slow down expansion plans. Upstream silicon material companies control sales volume to maintain prices [58]. Industry Valuation: Significant Short - Term Differences, Long - Term Return to Supply - Demand Balance Short - Term Valuation: Game between Policy and Fundamentals, Significant Differences - Silicon material companies' high valuations rely on policy expectations. If the storage policy fails to meet expectations or downstream demand weakens, there is a risk of valuation correction. - Downstream companies' low valuations reflect their loss pressure. If the silicon material price returns to the fundamental level, their profitability and valuations may recover [59]. Long - Term Valuation: Valuation Mainline: Integration and Cost - Control Capability - In the long run, companies with industrial chain integration and cost - control capabilities, especially those with high green - electricity usage ratios and regional cost advantages, will have higher profit stability and valuation premiums [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply of polysilicon is difficult to increase significantly due to high - level energy consumption standards and new capacity access thresholds, while demand is weakening as terminal demand is soft and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists. However, the market is affected by news, and polysilicon is expected to show a high - level oscillation. Today, polysilicon has a narrow - range oscillation, with technical indicators showing signs of turning bullish, and short - term bullish performance is expected. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 51,365 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main position is 105,474 lots, down 5,713 lots; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,395 yuan, down 40 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 42,310 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,500 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the basis is 1,120 yuan/ton, down 1,270 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, up 0.09 US dollars; the average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,055 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the spot price is 9,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, up 2,635.83 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,337.59 tons, up 1,220.14 tons; the monthly output is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,006 tons, down 164 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars; the monthly average import price is 2.62 US dollars/ton, down 0.25 US dollars [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 69,857,000 kilowatts, up 3,475,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 149,022,600 pieces, up 38,589,980 pieces; the monthly import volume is 21,440,290 pieces, up 6,914,640 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.25 US dollars/piece, down 0.05 US dollars; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 30.34, up 0.62 [2] 3.6 Industry News - On September 16, the Standardization Administration of China issued solicitation drafts for three national standards, setting an energy - consumption red line for polysilicon production enterprises. There have been several polysilicon - related events, including the annual conference of the Silicon Industry Branch discussing energy - consumption standards and past market conditions, the monthly regular meeting of the Photovoltaic Industry Association discussing the purchase - storage policy and production/ sales restrictions [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided on the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish stance, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2]. - In August, the planned出栏 volume of group farms increased, small - scale farmers had passive backlogs, demand growth was limited, large - scale farms' efforts to reduce supply and support prices were ineffective, daily trading was poor, and it was difficult to absorb market supply. The supply pressure in the near - term was difficult to reverse, and the priority of the production - capacity cycle was higher than that of the inventory cycle. It is recommended to enter a 11 - 1 reverse spread trade. The state reserve purchase policy has been implemented, and during the passive inventory accumulation phase, supply pressure usually requires multiple rounds of state reserve purchases to be digested. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver has increased, so the premium - collection market continues. The sentiment for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,780 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; the Sichuan spot price is 13,350 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100; the Guangdong spot price is 14,790 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 150 [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the 'pig2509' contract is 13,300 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 145; the 'pig2511' contract is 13,590 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 155; the 'pig2601' contract is 13,940 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 140 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the 'pig2509' contract is 2,887 lots, a decrease of 1,339 from the previous day, and the open interest is 4,118 lots, a decrease of 1,746 from the previous day. The trading volume of the 'pig2511' contract is 30,542 lots, an increase of 4,380 from the previous day, and the open interest is 74,963 lots, an increase of 3,370 from the previous day. The trading volume of the 'pig2601' contract is 13,435 lots, an increase of 2,826 from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,133 lots, an increase of 582 from the previous day [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the 'pig2509' contract is 480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 145; the 'pig2511' contract basis is 190 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 155; the 'pig2601' contract basis is - 160 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 140. The 9 - 11 spread of pigs is - 290 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 10 [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Chengdu has optimized its housing fund loan policies and canceled sales restrictions, aiming to promote a stable and healthy development of the real estate market [3][9] - The supply side focuses on improving quality and revitalizing existing stock, with measures to promote balanced regional development and enhance living conditions in non-core areas [3][9] - The demand side has seen a reduction in the down payment ratio for second homes and a phased cancellation of sales restrictions, which is expected to stimulate market activity [4][10] Weekly Data Tracking - New home transactions in 30 major cities showed a week-on-week increase of 22.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, indicating ongoing pressure in the market [5][11] - Second-hand home transactions also faced challenges, with a year-on-year decline of 7.1% in the latest week, marking the first negative growth this year [5][11][12] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on two main areas for investment: leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and well-structured land reserves, such as Poly Developments, and top real estate agencies benefiting from active second-hand home transactions, like I Love My Home [6][22]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of the pig market is characterized by strong expectations but weak reality, and attention should be paid to path changes [1] - In the short - term, the spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly, and the futures price of the LH2509 contract will be in the range of 13000 - 14500 yuan/ton, with the 2026 contract entering the industrial profit - locking logic stage [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Market Review (7.21 - 7.27) - **Spot Market**: Pig prices are running weakly. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan is 37.5 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan is 14.18 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide is 1628 yuan/head. The supply side shows a slight increase from large - scale farms and some reluctance to sell from smallholders. The demand side remains at a low level and is suppressed by high temperatures. The average slaughter weight nationwide is 124.68KG, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21% [2] - **Futures Market**: Pig futures prices fluctuate significantly. The highest price of the LH2509 contract is 15150 yuan/ton, the lowest is 14160 yuan/ton, and the closing price is 14385 yuan/ton. The basis of the LH2509 contract is - 205 yuan/ton [2] Next Week's Market Outlook (7.28 - 8.03) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will oscillate weakly. In the off - season, the adjustment of slaughter volume by large - scale farms has a greater impact on prices. As the peak season approaches in the second half of the year, the release of social inventory will increase, and the influence of large - scale farms will decline. In August, the contradictions will start to be released. The supply side has relatively high inventory accumulation, and the demand side is suppressed by high temperatures. The policy of purchases for storage may provide support [3] - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract price has been affected by strong macro - sentiment this week. However, as it approaches the position - limit period, it will gradually return to the industrial logic. The far - month 2026 contract will enter the industrial profit - locking logic stage. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4] Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week's basis is - 205 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 monthly spread is 0 yuan/ton [9] - **Supply**: The average weight this week is 124.68KG. In May, pork production was 549.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%; in June, pork imports were 8.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week (7.14 - 7.20), the spot market for live pigs showed weak performance. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 37.7 yuan/kg, the live pig price in Henan dropped from 14.83 yuan/kg last week to 14.43 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide rose from 1623 yuan/head to 1628 yuan/head. The supply side saw a slight increase from large - scale farms and some smallholders selling their pigs as the market conditions were right. The demand side remained low, and the high temperature restricted the increase in demand. The average slaughter weight nationwide increased by 0.02% week - on - week to 124.94KG. In the futures market, the live pig futures price was also weak. The LH2509 contract had a high of 14360 yuan/ton, a low of 13905 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14135 yuan/ton (down from 14345 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2509 contract decreased from 485 yuan/ton last week to 295 yuan/ton [2]. - Next week (7.21 - 7.27), the spot price of live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly. During the off - season, large - scale farms' adjustment of slaughter volume has a greater impact on prices, but this influence will decline in the peak season. It is expected that contradictions will be released in August. From the supply perspective, there was continuous restocking from February to May and bottom - fishing by secondary fattening in June, resulting in a low vacancy rate of pigsties and a relatively high inventory accumulation. The slaughter progress of large - scale farms was slow in July, and there is still pressure in the future. From the demand perspective, the actual demand in July was significantly weaker than in June, and the high - temperature months of July and August will suppress demand. Although the secondary fattening sales policy has tightened and there is passive freezing of pork into storage, the government's purchase and storage policy may provide support. There were still a small number of secondary fattening entries in July, and the idle space in pigsties is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the release of pressure in the peak season [3]. - For the futures market, the LH2509 contract closed at 14135 yuan/ton on July 18. The spot price weakened continuously this week, and the slaughter digestion capacity decreased, causing a large decline in the September contract. However, there is an expectation of government purchase and storage, which may drive the spot price up at the end and beginning of the month, leading to a rebound in the futures market. The near - term policy and reality interact, and the September contract is in the position - reducing stage, with increased volatility. As the peak season for piglet purchases ends, and both the spot performance and feed data confirm future supply increases, the 2026 contracts will enter the stage of locking in profits by the industry. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review (7.14 - 7.20) - **Spot Market**: In Henan, the price of 20KG piglets remained unchanged at 37.7 yuan/kg, the live pig price dropped from 14.83 yuan/kg to 14.43 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide rose from 1623 yuan/head to 1628 yuan/head. The supply side had a slight increase from large - scale farms and some smallholders selling their pigs, while the demand side was restricted by high temperatures. The average slaughter weight nationwide increased by 0.02% week - on - week to 124.94KG [2]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract had a high of 14360 yuan/ton, a low of 13905 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14135 yuan/ton (down from 14345 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2509 contract decreased from 485 yuan/ton last week to 295 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook (7.21 - 7.27) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly. The influence of large - scale farms on prices will decline in the peak season. Supply pressure remains due to previous restocking, and demand will be suppressed by high temperatures. The government's purchase and storage policy may provide support, and there were still some secondary fattening entries in July [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract closed at 14135 yuan/ton on July 18. The September contract may rebound due to the expectation of government purchase and storage, but it is in the position - reducing stage with increased volatility. The 2026 contracts will enter the stage of locking in profits by the industry. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: This week, the basis was 295 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was 500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply Data**: The average weight this week was 124.91KG (unchanged from last week). In May, the pork production was 549.6 tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase, and the pork import was 9.37 million tons, a 16.17% month - on - month increase [12].