Report Title - The report is titled "Pigs: Supply Postponement Confirmed, Central Point Further Lowered" [1] Report Date - The report was released on October 20, 2025 [1] Core View - The supply of pigs is postponed, and the central point further moves down [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Fundamental Tracking Pig Price - Henan spot price is 11,380 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 100 yuan/ton [1] - Sichuan spot price is 10,900 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 100 yuan/ton [1] - Guangdong spot price is 11,460 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 0 yuan/ton [1] - The price of the Pig 2511 futures contract is 11,050 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 115 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [1] Market Information - Shennong registered 90 lots of warehouse receipts in Yunnan and Guangxi, and Guizhou Zhenfeng Fuyuan registered 21 lots of warehouse receipts [2] - Yuexiu and Yangxiang added new delivery warehouses [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is -2, indicating the most bearish view [3] Futures Research Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of Pig 2511 is 26,986 lots, a decrease of 6,503 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 35,844 lots, a decrease of 5,388 lots from the previous day [4] - The trading volume of Pig 2601 is 86,464 lots, an increase of 6,438 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 106,972 lots, an increase of 1,960 lots from the previous day [4] - The trading volume of Pig 2603 is 23,143 lots, an increase of 6,271 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 81,591 lots, an increase of 4,172 lots from the previous day [4] Basis and Spread - The basis of Pig 2511 is 11,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 235 yuan/ton [4] - The basis of Pig 2601 is 11,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton [4] - The spread between Pig 11 - 1 is 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [4] - The spread between Pig 1 - 3 is 390 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton [4] - The spread between Pig 11 - 3 is -290 yuan/ton, an increase of 335 yuan/ton [4] - The spread between Pig 1 - 3 (another data) is 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 360 yuan/ton [4] - The spread between Pig 11 - 3 (another data) is -620 yuan/ton [4]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The expectation for the pig industry has weakened [1] - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [4] - At the end of the month and the beginning of the new month, large - scale pig - farming groups significantly reduced their supply, and the spot price realized the market's rebound expectation. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale groups will increase in August, and small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. The production capacity cycle and inventory cycle will resonate from September to October, and it is advisable to enter the 11 - 1 inverse spread. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end central price, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,180 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,850 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,840 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 300 yuan/ton [3] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2511 contract is 13,595 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price of the pig 2601 contract is 13,860 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price of the pig 2603 contract is 13,095 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 15 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the pig 2511 contract, the trading volume is 26,042 lots, a decrease of 4,481 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 73,388 lots, a decrease of 2,076 lots from the previous day. For the pig 2601 contract, the trading volume is 11,472 lots, a decrease of 2,658 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,756 lots, an increase of 278 lots from the previous day. For the pig 2603 contract, the trading volume is 2,845 lots, a decrease of 1,349 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 32,584 lots, an increase of 373 lots from the previous day [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig 2511 contract is 585 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the basis of the pig 2601 contract is 320 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the basis of the pig 2603 contract is 1,085 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The 11 - 1 spread of pigs is - 265 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the 1 - 3 spread of pigs is 765 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton [3]