Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend strength is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2]. 2. Report's Core View - The demand for live pigs is underperforming expectations, and attention should be paid to supply contradictions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 13,180 yuan/ton, unchanged year-on-year; in Sichuan, it is 12,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year-on-year; in Guangdong, it is 12,960 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton year-on-year [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of live pig futures contract 2603 is 11,285 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton year-on-year; contract 2605 is 11,695 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year-on-year; contract 2607 is 12,375 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year-on-year [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of contract 2603 is 69,670 lots, an increase of 16,018 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 127,642 lots, a decrease of 5,752 lots. The trading volume of contract 2605 is 33,228 lots, an increase of 2,559 lots, and the open interest is 115,715 lots, an increase of 1,816 lots. The trading volume of contract 2607 is 6,532 lots, an increase of 1,652 lots, and the open interest is 46,583 lots, an increase of 383 lots [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of contract 2603 is 1,895 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton year-on-year; the basis of contract 2605 is 1,485 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton year-on-year; the basis of contract 2607 is 805 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton year-on-year. The spread between contracts 2603 and 2605 is -410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton year-on-year; the spread between contracts 2605 and 2607 is -680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton year-on-year [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]. 2. Report's Core View - The demand in the peak season for pigs falls short of expectations, and supply contradictions emerge [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,180 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the Sichuan spot price is 12,950 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the Guangdong spot price is 13,360 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live - hog 2603, 2605, and 2607 are 11,465 yuan/ton, 11,760 yuan/ton, and 12,425 yuan/ton respectively, down 100 yuan, 90 yuan, and 45 yuan [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live - hog 2603, 2605, and 2607 is 53,652 lots, 30,669 lots, and 4,880 lots respectively, with an increase of 10,712 lots, 12,414 lots, and 653 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest is 133,394 lots, 113,899 lots, and 46,200 lots respectively, with an increase of 1,981 lots, 5,555 lots, and 464 lots compared to the previous day [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live - hog 2603, 2605, and 2607 is 1,715 yuan/ton, 1,420 yuan/ton, and 755 yuan/ton respectively. The 3 - 5 spread is - 295 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 7 spread is - 665 yuan/ton [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the situation of the pig market, with the demand expectation for Laba Festival realized, and suggests paying attention to the supply contradiction [1]. - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,280 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 13,360 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of Live Pig 2603 is 11,565 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; Live Pig 2605 is 11,850 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton year - on - year; Live Pig 2607 is 12,470 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For Live Pig 2603, the trading volume is 42,940 lots, down 7,794 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 131,413 lots, down 4,037 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2605, the trading volume is 18,255 lots, down 1,790 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 108,344 lots, up 1,559 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2607, the trading volume is 4,227 lots, down 52 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 45,736 lots, up 692 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Live Pig 2603 is 1,715 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of Live Pig 2605 is 1,430 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of Live Pig 2607 is 810 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between Live Pig 3 - 5 is - 285 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between Live Pig 5 - 7 is - 620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton year - on - year [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish view [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market for live pigs has weakened, and the expectations for the peak season have decreased [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,430 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 250 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 12,950 yuan/ton with a 150 yuan/ton increase; the Guangdong spot price is 14,060 yuan/ton with a 1,000 yuan/ton increase [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig 2603, 2605, and 2607 are 11,705 yuan/ton, 11,945 yuan/ton, and 12,605 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 275 yuan/ton, 210 yuan/ton, and 155 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live pig 2603, 2605, and 2607 are 149,841 lots, 49,664 lots, and 10,219 lots respectively, with increases of 88,100 lots, 26,503 lots, and 6,862 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest are 154,389 lots, 106,779 lots, and 44,679 lots respectively, with changes of - 7,106 lots, + 6,963 lots, and + 632 lots compared to the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live pig 2603, 2605, and 2607 are 1,725 yuan/ton, 1,485 yuan/ton, and 825 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 525 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, and 405 yuan/ton. The spreads between live pig 3 - 5 and 5 - 7 are - 240 yuan/ton and - 660 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 65 yuan/ton and 55 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Pigs: Negative Feedback in Demand, Supply Release Further Delayed" and was released on January 14, 2026 [1] Group 2: Analysts - The analysts are Zhou Xiaoqiu (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0001891, email: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com) and Wu Hao (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0018592, email: wuhao8@gtht.com) [1] Group 3: Pig Fundamental Data Spot Prices - Henan spot price is 13,030 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan year-on-year [2] - Sichuan spot price is 13,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan year-on-year [2] - Guangdong spot price is 13,260 yuan/ton, unchanged year-on-year [2] Futures Prices - The price of Pig 2603 is 11,795 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan year-on-year [2] - The price of Pig 2605 is 12,170 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan year-on-year [2] - The price of Pig 2607 is 12,830 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan year-on-year [2] Trading Volumes and Open Interests - The trading volume of Pig 2603 is 57,954 lots, down 5,059 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 161,067 lots, down 8,770 lots from the previous day [2] - The trading volume of Pig 2605 is 16,639 lots, down 1,079 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 98,403 lots, down 888 lots from the previous day [2] - The trading volume of Pig 2607 is 3,588 lots, down 1,034 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 43,930 lots, down 176 lots from the previous day [2] Price Spreads - The basis of Pig 2603 is 1,235 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan year-on-year [2] - The basis of Pig 2605 is 860 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan year-on-year [2] - The basis of Pig 2607 is 200 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan year-on-year [2] - The spread between Pig 2603 and Pig 2605 is -375 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan year-on-year [2] - The spread between Pig 2605 and Pig 2607 is -660 yuan/ton, unchanged year-on-year [2] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2] and classifications including weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The cooling expectation for the pig market has materialized, and the pressure is gradually being released [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of pigs in Henan is 11,830 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Sichuan, it is 11,400 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; in Guangdong, it is 12,160 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of pig futures contract 2601 is 11,560 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 25; contract 2603 is 11,350 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 5; contract 2605 is 11,995 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 45 [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For contract 2601, the trading volume is 55,080 lots, a decrease of 32,311 from the previous day, and the open interest is 138,334 lots, a decrease of 4,083 from the previous day; for contract 2603, the trading volume is 14,483 lots, a decrease of 6,257 from the previous day, and the open interest is 114,413 lots, a decrease of 469 from the previous day; for contract 2605, the trading volume is 12,335 lots, a decrease of 3,827 from the previous day, and the open interest is 64,576 lots, an increase of 1,060 from the previous day [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of contract 2601 is 270 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 75; the basis of contract 2603 is 480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 105; the basis of contract 2605 is - 165 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 145; the spread between contract 2601 and 2603 is 210 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 30; the spread between contract 2603 and 2605 is - 645 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 40 [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the bottom of the live - hog spot market has not been reached as of September 30, 2025 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 12,430 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 12,710 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of live - hog 2511 is 12,295 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of live - hog 2601 is 12,785 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of live - hog 2603 is 12,450 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live - hog 2511 is 58,720 lots, an increase of 19,978 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 75,453 lots, a decrease of 9,566 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of live - hog 2601 is 37,054 lots, an increase of 10,127 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 76,421 lots, an increase of 4,799 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of live - hog 2603 is 14,327 lots, an increase of 6,995 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 52,605 lots, an increase of 1,743 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live - hog 2511 is 135 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live - hog 2601 is - 355 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live - hog 2603 is - 20 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between live - hog 11 - 1 is - 490 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between live - hog 1 - 3 is 335 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish outlook [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increases, small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs, demand growth is limited, and market pressure is high. The daily trading volume is poor, and it's difficult to absorb market supply. The September contract is in the pre - delivery month, and the second position limit starts on the tenth trading day. The futures price is still at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. Pay attention to the premium - narrowing market. The macro sentiment has strong support for the far - end contracts, resulting in a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse spread, and attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 13,350 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton), and the Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the LH2509 contract is 13,965 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton), and the price of the LH2511 contract is 14,230 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Market Logic - **Supply and Demand**: In August, the supply pressure is high due to the increase in the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms and the forced pig - holding of small - scale farmers, while demand growth is limited. The daily trading volume is poor, and it's difficult to absorb the supply [3] - **Contract Features**: The September contract is in the pre - delivery month, and the second position limit starts on the tenth trading day. The futures price is at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing [3] - **Market Structure**: There is a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, and the spread structure maintains a reverse spread. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Futures Trading Data - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the LH2509 contract is 6,369 lots (up 41 lots), and the open interest is 21,908 lots (down 2,631 lots); the trading volume of the LH2511 contract is 26,871 lots (down 3,086 lots), and the open interest is 60,882 lots (down 1,419 lots); the trading volume of the LH2601 contract is 9,819 lots (down 928 lots), and the open interest is 44,835 lots (up 218 lots) [4] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the LH2509 contract is - 95 yuan/ton, the basis of the LH2511 contract is - 195 yuan/ton, the basis of the LH2601 contract is 30 yuan/ton, the spread between the LH2509 and LH2511 contracts is - 350 yuan/ton, and the spread between the LH2511 and LH2601 contracts is - 545 yuan/ton [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance on the market, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Although there are current market issues such as the inverted price difference between fat pigs in the north and south, a decrease in group piglet sales, and a slight increase in pen pressure in May, price increases have exceeded expectations, leading to continued inventory accumulation. The near - term contradictions have not reached the release stage. The macro - sentiment has cooled, and capital interference has decreased. The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Attention should be focused on the arbitrage strategy for the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spread from the normal state. In the medium - to - long - term, continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread and pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The price of Henan's live pig spot is 15,000 yuan/ton, Sichuan's is 14,550 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's is 15,190 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton in Guangdong [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live pig 2507 contract is 13,575 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Market Logic - **Trading Logic**: The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Focus on the arbitrage strategy for the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spread from the normal state. Continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - to - long - term and pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit [3] - **Contract Price Ranges**: The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Futures Trading Data | Contract | Volume (compared to the previous day) | Open Interest (compared to yesterday) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Live Pig 2507 | 3,265 (-1,782) | 28,942 (-950) | | Live Pig 2509 | 13,932 (-5,014) | 71,262 (-92) | | Live Pig 2511 | 1,876 (-2,431) | 29,684 (+74) | [3] 3.4 Futures Price Difference Data | Price Difference Type | Price Difference Value | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Live Pig 2507 Basis | 35 | - | | Live Pig 2509 Basis | 295 | - | | Live Pig 2511 Basis | 5 | - | | Live Pig 7 - 9 Spread | 1,425 | -50 | | Live Pig 9 - 11 Spread | 1,115 | -15 | [3]