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生猪:去库降重将启动,持续时间或超预期
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 02:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish view [3] 2. Core View - The de - stocking and weight - reduction of live pigs will start, and the duration may exceed expectations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 10,130 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan spot price is 10,250 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; Guangdong spot price is 10,860 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of live pig 2605 is 10,695 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton year - on - year; live pig 2607 is 12,115 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year; live pig 2609 is 13,085 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For live pig 2605, the trading volume is 131,400 lots, down 10,010 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 202,398 lots, down 364 lots from the previous day; for live pig 2607, the trading volume is 20,734 lots, up 1,120 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 66,232 lots, up 3,491 lots from the previous day; for live pig 2609, the trading volume is 14,714 lots, down 556 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 62,323 lots, up 1,139 lots from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live pig 2605 is - 565 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live pig 2607 is - 1,985 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live pig 2609 is - 2,955 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 5 - 7 spread of live pig is - 1,420 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 7 - 9 spread of live pig is - 970 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]
生猪:去库降重或将启动,现货承压
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 02:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The de - stocking and weight - reduction of live pigs may start, putting pressure on the spot market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 10,180 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 10,250 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; Guangdong spot price is 10,860 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of live pig 2605 is 11,150 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton; live pig 2607 is 12,345 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 55 yuan/ton; live pig 2609 is 13,165 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For live pig 2605, the trading volume is 66,348 lots, a decrease of 21,868 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 191,106 lots, a decrease of 2,548 lots from the previous day; for live pig 2607, the trading volume is 10,662 lots, a decrease of 2,690 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 61,561 lots, a decrease of 301 lots from the previous day; for live pig 2609, the trading volume is 10,206 lots, a decrease of 3,017 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 58,754 lots, an increase of 909 lots from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live pig 2605 is - 970 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 80 yuan/ton; the basis of live pig 2607 is - 2,165 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 45 yuan/ton; the basis of live pig 2609 is - 2,985 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton; the spread between live pig 5 - 7 is - 1,195 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the spread between live pig 7 - 9 is - 820 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the interval [-2, 2]. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]
生猪:被动累库,现货阴跌
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 01:53
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is about the pig futures market on March 12, 2026, with the theme of "Passive inventory accumulation and spot price decline in the pig market" [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The trend strength of the pig market is -1, indicating a bearish view, with a range of [-2, 2], where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3] Group 4: Key Data Spot Prices - Henan spot price is 10,230 yuan/ton, Sichuan spot price is 10,250 yuan/ton, and Guangdong spot price is 10,460 yuan/ton [2] Futures Prices - Pig 2605 is 11,170 yuan/ton (down 10% year - on - year), Pig 2607 is 12,310 yuan/ton (up 25% year - on - year), and Pig 2609 is 13,185 yuan/ton (down 15% year - on - year) [2] Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - Pig 2605 trading volume is 64,206 lots (down 4,897 from the previous day), open interest is 186,980 lots (up 4,634 from the previous day); Pig 2607 trading volume is 9,932 lots (up 2,118 from the previous day), open interest is 61,212 lots (up 1,104 from the previous day); Pig 2609 trading volume is 9,681 lots (down 1,195 from the previous day), open interest is 56,697 lots (up 1,490 from the previous day) [2] Price Spreads - Pig 2605 basis is -940 yuan/ton (up 10% year - on - year), Pig 2607 basis is -2,080 yuan/ton (down 25% year - on - year), Pig 2609 basis is -2,955 yuan/ton (up 15% year - on - year); Pig 5 - 7 spread is -1,140 yuan/ton (down 35% year - on - year), Pig 7 - 9 spread is -875 yuan/ton (up 40% year - on - year) [2]
生猪:旺季不旺确认,堰塞湖释放开始
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 02:09
Report Summary 1. Core View - Confirmation of off - season during peak season and the start of the release of the "reservoir" for the pig industry [1] 2. Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 12,430 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; Sichuan spot price is 11,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong spot price is 11,860 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of live - hog 2603 is 10,860 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; live - hog 2605 is 11,625 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; live - hog 2607 is 12,195 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For live - hog 2603, trading volume is 28,725 lots, down 8,149 lots, and open interest is 65,988 lots, down 8,876 lots; for live - hog 2605, trading volume is 48,568 lots, down 19,829 lots, and open interest is 143,321 lots, down 1,148 lots; for live - hog 2607, trading volume is 4,422 lots, down 3,540 lots, and open interest is 50,102 lots, down 154 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live - hog 2603 is 1,570 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan; the basis of live - hog 2605 is 805 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan; the basis of live - hog 2607 is 235 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the spread between live - hog 2603 and 2605 is - 765 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spread between live - hog 2605 and 2607 is - 570 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3. Market Information - Guangxi Yangxiang registered 100 lots of warehouse receipts for the March contract; Dekang registered 525 lots; Fuyuan registered 22 lots [3] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 2, indicating the most bearish view [4]
生猪:节前拉涨不及预期,压力扩大
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-03 02:23
Group 1: Report Title and General Situation - The report is titled "Pigs: Pre-holiday Rally Falls Short of Expectations, Pressure Increases" and is dated February 3, 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the given content Group 3: Core View - The pre - holiday rally of pigs is less than expected, and the pressure is expanding [1] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 12,880 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 12,100 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; Guangdong's is 12,460 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of Live Pig 2603 is 11,220 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 55 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2605 is 11,650 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2607 is 12,345 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Live Pig 2603 is 69,198 lots with an increase of 13,547 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 101,717 lots with a decrease of 16,937 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2605, the trading volume is 37,941 lots with an increase of 8,804 lots, and the open interest is 129,133 lots with an increase of 4,384 lots; for Live Pig 2607, the trading volume is 5,125 lots with an increase of 838 lots, and the open interest is 47,024 lots with an increase of 358 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Live Pig 2603 is 1,660 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 145 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2605 is 1,230 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 190 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2607 is 535 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 160 yuan/ton. The 3 - 5 spread of live pigs is - 430 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 45 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 7 spread is - 695 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [3]
生猪:供应将加速兑现,节前压力扩大
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 02:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of live pigs will be accelerated, and the pressure before the festival will increase [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 12,680 yuan/ton, in Sichuan is 12,150 yuan/ton (down 350 yuan/ton year-on-year), and in Guangdong is 12,060 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton year-on-year) [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2603, 2605, and 2607 are 11,220 yuan/ton (up 55 yuan/ton year-on-year), 11,650 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton year-on-year), and 12,345 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live pig futures contract 2603 is 69,198 lots (an increase of 13,547 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 101,717 lots (a decrease of 16,937 lots compared to the previous day); the trading volume of contract 2605 is 37,941 lots (an increase of 8,804 lots), with an open interest of 129,133 lots (an increase of 4,384 lots); the trading volume of contract 2607 is 5,125 lots (an increase of 838 lots), with an open interest of 47,024 lots (an increase of 358 lots) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live pig futures contracts 2603, 2605, and 2607 are 1,460 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton year-on-year), 1,030 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton year-on-year), and 335 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively; the price spreads between contracts 3 - 5 and 5 - 7 are -430 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton year-on-year) and -695 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively [2]. 3.2 Market Information - On January 30th, the warehouse receipt price of the Lianzhou delivery warehouse was close to 11,300 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is -2, indicating the most bearish view, with the value range being integers within the [-2, 2] interval [4].
生猪:需求表现不及预期,关注供应矛盾
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 02:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend strength is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2]. 2. Report's Core View - The demand for live pigs is underperforming expectations, and attention should be paid to supply contradictions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 13,180 yuan/ton, unchanged year-on-year; in Sichuan, it is 12,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year-on-year; in Guangdong, it is 12,960 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton year-on-year [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of live pig futures contract 2603 is 11,285 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton year-on-year; contract 2605 is 11,695 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year-on-year; contract 2607 is 12,375 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year-on-year [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of contract 2603 is 69,670 lots, an increase of 16,018 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 127,642 lots, a decrease of 5,752 lots. The trading volume of contract 2605 is 33,228 lots, an increase of 2,559 lots, and the open interest is 115,715 lots, an increase of 1,816 lots. The trading volume of contract 2607 is 6,532 lots, an increase of 1,652 lots, and the open interest is 46,583 lots, an increase of 383 lots [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of contract 2603 is 1,895 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton year-on-year; the basis of contract 2605 is 1,485 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton year-on-year; the basis of contract 2607 is 805 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton year-on-year. The spread between contracts 2603 and 2605 is -410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton year-on-year; the spread between contracts 2605 and 2607 is -680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton year-on-year [1].
生猪:腊八需求预期落地,关注供应矛盾
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 02:19
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the situation of the pig market, with the demand expectation for Laba Festival realized, and suggests paying attention to the supply contradiction [1]. - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,280 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 13,360 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of Live Pig 2603 is 11,565 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; Live Pig 2605 is 11,850 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton year - on - year; Live Pig 2607 is 12,470 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For Live Pig 2603, the trading volume is 42,940 lots, down 7,794 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 131,413 lots, down 4,037 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2605, the trading volume is 18,255 lots, down 1,790 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 108,344 lots, up 1,559 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2607, the trading volume is 4,227 lots, down 52 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 45,736 lots, up 692 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Live Pig 2603 is 1,715 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of Live Pig 2605 is 1,430 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of Live Pig 2607 is 810 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between Live Pig 3 - 5 is - 285 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between Live Pig 5 - 7 is - 620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton year - on - year [1].
生猪:需求存负反馈,供应释放继续延后
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 02:00
Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Pigs: Negative Feedback in Demand, Supply Release Further Delayed" and was released on January 14, 2026 [1] Group 2: Analysts - The analysts are Zhou Xiaoqiu (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0001891, email: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com) and Wu Hao (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0018592, email: wuhao8@gtht.com) [1] Group 3: Pig Fundamental Data Spot Prices - Henan spot price is 13,030 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan year-on-year [2] - Sichuan spot price is 13,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan year-on-year [2] - Guangdong spot price is 13,260 yuan/ton, unchanged year-on-year [2] Futures Prices - The price of Pig 2603 is 11,795 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan year-on-year [2] - The price of Pig 2605 is 12,170 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan year-on-year [2] - The price of Pig 2607 is 12,830 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan year-on-year [2] Trading Volumes and Open Interests - The trading volume of Pig 2603 is 57,954 lots, down 5,059 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 161,067 lots, down 8,770 lots from the previous day [2] - The trading volume of Pig 2605 is 16,639 lots, down 1,079 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 98,403 lots, down 888 lots from the previous day [2] - The trading volume of Pig 2607 is 3,588 lots, down 1,034 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 43,930 lots, down 176 lots from the previous day [2] Price Spreads - The basis of Pig 2603 is 1,235 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan year-on-year [2] - The basis of Pig 2605 is 860 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan year-on-year [2] - The basis of Pig 2607 is 200 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan year-on-year [2] - The spread between Pig 2603 and Pig 2605 is -375 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan year-on-year [2] - The spread between Pig 2605 and Pig 2607 is -660 yuan/ton, unchanged year-on-year [2] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2] and classifications including weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3]