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生猪:增量将至,产业逻辑回归
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 02:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The report is titled "Pigs: Increment is Coming, and Industrial Logic Returns", indicating a potential change in the pig industry with an expected increase in supply and a return to industrial logic. However, the specific details of the core view are not fully elaborated in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in different regions vary. The price in Henan is 11,330 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; in Sichuan, it is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Guangdong, it is 12,360 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of different futures contracts also show different trends. The price of the Pig 2601 contract is 11,455 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the Pig 2603 contract is 11,255 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; and the Pig 2605 contract is 11,950 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2601 contract is 47,868 lots, down 2,025 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest is 98,797 lots, down 2,943 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2603 contract is 34,611 lots, up 1,949 lots, and the open interest is 137,984 lots, down 378 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2605 contract is 12,643 lots, down 472 lots, and the open interest is 74,419 lots, up 264 lots [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2601 contract is -125 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2603 contract is 75 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2605 contract is -620 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton. The spread between Pig 1 - 3 is 200 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between Pig 3 - 5 is -695 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3].
生猪:缩量兑现,产业逻辑将回归
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 02:04
Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The report is titled "Pigs: Reducing Volume and Realizing, Industrial Logic Will Return", but no clear core view is presented other than basic data tracking [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Spot Prices - Henan spot price is 11,430 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton [1] - Sichuan spot price is 11,500 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 150 yuan/ton [1] - Guangdong spot price is 12,260 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 900 yuan/ton [1] Futures Prices - The price of Live Hogs 2601 is 11,495 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan/ton [1] - The price of Live Hogs 2603 is 11,205 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 45 yuan/ton [1] - The price of Live Hogs 2605 is 11,925 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of Live Hogs 2601 is 49,893 lots, a decrease of 15,052 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 101,740 lots, a decrease of 5,802 lots from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of Live Hogs 2603 is 32,662 lots, an increase of 4,905 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 138,362 lots, an increase of 2,391 lots from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of Live Hogs 2605 is 13,115 lots, a decrease of 374 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 74,155 lots, an increase of 291 lots from the previous day [1] Spreads - The basis of Live Hogs 2601 is - 65 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - The basis of Live Hogs 2603 is 225 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 95 yuan/ton [1] - The basis of Live Hogs 2605 is - 495 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between Live Hogs 2601 and 2603 is 290 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 75 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between Live Hogs 2603 and 2605 is - 720 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2] for integer values, representing a neutral view [2]
生猪:产业逻辑将回归
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 02:15
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the pig industry, stating that the industry logic will return in 2025 [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data - **Spot prices**: Henan's is 11,380 yuan/ton, Sichuan's is 11,350 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year), and Guangdong's is 11,360 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year) [3] - **Futures prices**: The price of pig 2601 is 11,465 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton year - on - year), pig 2603 is 11,250 yuan/ton (down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year), and pig 2605 is 11,935 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton year - on - year) [3] - **Trading volume**: Pig 2601 is 64,945 lots (up 6,464 lots from the previous day), pig 2603 is 27,757 lots (up 5,324 lots from the previous day), and pig 2605 is 13,489 lots (down 734 lots from the previous day) [3] - **Open interest**: Pig 2601 is 107,542 lots (down 9,780 lots from the previous day), pig 2603 is 135,971 lots (up 7,728 lots from the previous day), and pig 2605 is 73,864 lots (up 2,108 lots from the previous day) [3] - **Price differences**: Pig 2601 basis is - 85 yuan/ton (up 120 yuan/ton year - on - year), pig 2603 basis is 130 yuan/ton (up 65 yuan/ton year - on - year), pig 2605 basis is - 555 yuan/ton (up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year), pig 1 - 3 spread is 215 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton year - on - year), and pig 3 - 5 spread is - 685 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton year - on - year) [3] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]
生猪:社会猪出栏节点将至
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 05:46
Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The social pig slaughter node is approaching [1] - The trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Henan spot price is 11,730 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 50; Sichuan spot price is 11,400 yuan/ton with no year-on-year change; Guangdong spot price is 12,360 yuan/ton with no year-on-year change. For futures, the prices of live hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 11,350 yuan/ton, 11,245 yuan/ton, and 11,860 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 90, 70, and 80 [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of live hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 53,119 hands, 19,710 hands, and 12,755 hands respectively, with decreases of 30,230 hands, 1,247 hands, and 537 hands compared to the previous day. The open interests are 133,298 hands, 118,104 hands, and 65,745 hands respectively, with changes of -6,792 hands, +1,691 hands, and +27 hands compared to the previous day [2] - **Price Spread Data**: The basis of live hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 380 yuan/ton, 485 yuan/ton, and -130 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year increases of 40, 20, and 30. The spreads between live hog 1 - 3 and 3 - 5 are 105 yuan/ton and -615 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year changes of -20 and +10 [2]
生猪:降温涨价预期落空,压力逐步释放
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 01:47
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The expectation of price increase due to temperature drop in the pig market has failed, and the pressure is gradually being released [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 11,680 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan year-on-year; in Sichuan, it is 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged year-on-year; in Guangdong, it is 12,160 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan year-on-year [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of Live Pig 2601 is 11,695 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan year-on-year; Live Pig 2603 is 11,470 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan year-on-year; Live Pig 2605 is 12,140 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan year-on-year [1] - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Live Pig 2601 is 81,878 lots, an increase of 20,120 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 137,254 lots, an increase of 6,579 lots; for Live Pig 2603, the trading volume is 25,641 lots, an increase of 8,290 lots, and the open interest is 112,559 lots, an increase of 3,726 lots; for Live Pig 2605, the trading volume is 15,661 lots, an increase of 6,182 lots, and the open interest is 61,998 lots, an increase of 2,167 lots [1] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Live Pig 2601 is -15 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan year-on-year; the basis of Live Pig 2603 is 210 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan year-on-year; the basis of Live Pig 2605 is -460 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan year-on-year; the spread between Live Pig 1 - 3 is 225 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan; the spread between Live Pig 3 - 5 is -670 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [1]