2025年12月，波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)阶段性反弹，再加上西非西芒杜铁矿项目逐步投产，干散货航运的大周期拐点算是 正式来了。 尽管短期仍面临地域摩擦、主力货种需求分化的扰动，但供给侧的运力收缩、地缘格局驱动的吨海里需求增长，以及绿色转 型带来的行业重构，正共同勾勒出干散货市场的长期演绎路径。在这场周期与成长的交织中，结构性机遇与行业变局已清晰 浮现。 01 周期初现反转 地缘格局 地缘摩擦虽然压制了部分货种需求，却倒逼了贸易路线重构，间接拉长了运距。比如中国多买巴西大豆，中东小麦需求找更 多供应国，长距离运输的占比上去了，相当于给干散货运输添了"隐形订单"。 02 航运周期预演 这轮干散货大周期不是单一因素催出来的，是供给、需求、地缘格局三方面共同发力的结果。 供给端 现在干散货船队的供给特别紧张。据Clarksons数据，2025年干散货船队的手持订单占总运力的比例只有11%，是过去25年最 低，在航运各细分领域里也垫底。 旧船拆解潮还在加剧运力紧张。2025年干散货船拆解量从2024年的470万载重吨涨到660万载重吨，2026年预计会冲到970万 载重吨，巴拿马型船是拆解主力。同时新造船订单暴跌8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for 2024, achieving a net profit of 377 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 684.86% [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 19.402 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.17% [2]. - The gross profit margin improved due to optimized order structure, increased production efficiency, and higher investment income from associated companies [2]. - Key subsidiaries showed varied performance, with Huangpu Wenchong reporting a revenue of 18.09 billion yuan and a net loss of 243 million yuan, while Guangzhou Wenchong achieved a net profit of 408 million yuan, up 234.45% [2]. Order and Delivery Performance - As of the end of 2024, the company held a total contract value of approximately 61.6 billion yuan in orders, with 58.7 billion yuan attributed to shipbuilding orders [3]. - The company completed a total of 250 million yuan in new contracts, exceeding its annual target by 165.56% [3]. - A total of 37 vessels were delivered, amounting to 1.0844 million deadweight tons, including significant defense equipment and a batch of feeder container ships [3]. Competitive Advantages - The company operates as a large comprehensive marine and defense equipment enterprise, with strong product, technology, brand, and market advantages [4]. - It has successfully entered the medium-sized container ship market and achieved breakthroughs in dual-fuel ship designs, including the first ammonia dual-fuel gas transport ship in the country [4]. - The continuous optimization of product structure is expected to enhance competitiveness and facilitate global market expansion [4]. Industry Outlook - In 2024, China's shipbuilding completion volume, new orders, and backlog accounted for 55.7%, 74.1%, and 63.1% of the global market share, respectively, maintaining the top position for 15 consecutive years [5]. - The demand for new ships remains strong, with a supply-demand imbalance expected to persist, supporting the company's order intake and delivery [5]. - The company’s order schedule extends to 2029, indicating robust future order support [5].