指标领跑全国，实力无人能敌 中国造船业，这几年真是一路高歌猛进，到2025年还是稳坐全球头把交椅。数据摆在那，全国三大指标 ——完工量、新接订单、手持订单——连续16年世界第一，今年前三季度完工量占全球53.8%，新订单 67.3%，手持订单65.2%。 上半年新船订单797艘，总计1984万CGT，下半年明显加速，全年订单总额超1500亿美元。订单结构也 变了，绿色船舶订单820艘，总额7800亿元，创历史新高。船东们偏好替代燃料动力船，中国船厂手持 订单占全球65%，产能紧张到2029年船台基本售罄，2030年都开始预留。 五个大省贡献了全国大部分产量，广东第五，广州基地科研机构多达58家，广船国际订单排到2028年， 汽车滚装船市场份额全球第一。浙江第四，去年产值470亿元涨20%，出口船舶货值近10亿元创纪录， 象山和舟山船厂忙碌不停。 辽宁第三，这里出过跃进号、长城号、辽宁舰、山东舰，大连造船油轮交付117艘，合同额超230亿元。 上海第二，爱达·魔都号交付后集齐三大明珠，船舶企业2.54万家最多，三大船企手持订单超210艘。 江苏呢，第一位，三大指标占全国四成多，连续16年霸榜，出口船舶655亿元 ...

2025年12月，波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)阶段性反弹，再加上西非西芒杜铁矿项目逐步投产，干散货航运的大周期拐点算是 正式来了。 尽管短期仍面临地域摩擦、主力货种需求分化的扰动，但供给侧的运力收缩、地缘格局驱动的吨海里需求增长，以及绿色转 型带来的行业重构，正共同勾勒出干散货市场的长期演绎路径。在这场周期与成长的交织中，结构性机遇与行业变局已清晰 浮现。 01 周期初现反转 地缘格局 地缘摩擦虽然压制了部分货种需求，却倒逼了贸易路线重构，间接拉长了运距。比如中国多买巴西大豆，中东小麦需求找更 多供应国，长距离运输的占比上去了，相当于给干散货运输添了"隐形订单"。 02 航运周期预演 这轮干散货大周期不是单一因素催出来的，是供给、需求、地缘格局三方面共同发力的结果。 供给端 现在干散货船队的供给特别紧张。据Clarksons数据，2025年干散货船队的手持订单占总运力的比例只有11%，是过去25年最 低，在航运各细分领域里也垫底。 旧船拆解潮还在加剧运力紧张。2025年干散货船拆解量从2024年的470万载重吨涨到660万载重吨，2026年预计会冲到970万 载重吨，巴拿马型船是拆解主力。同时新造船订单暴跌8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant profit increase of 109% year-on-year, reaching a net profit of 2.946 billion, with revenue surpassing 40.3 billion, yet the stock price remains stagnant around 37 yuan, raising questions about market dynamics and potential performance peaks [1]. Group 1: Performance Drivers - High-value orders were delivered in the first half of the year, with a notable increase in the price of civil shipbuilding and effective cost control leading to a significant rise in gross profit margin [3]. - Profits from joint ventures improved, with long-term equity investment income rising year-on-year, contributing to net profit growth [3]. - Operating cash flow turned positive, increasing from -3.814 billion to +2.355 billion, primarily due to increased sales revenue and improved cash collection [4]. Group 2: Strategic Advantages - The company has a robust order backlog, with civil ship orders valued at 233.487 billion, repair orders at 0.0766 billion, and offshore equipment orders at 0.3699 billion, providing strong support for future performance [5]. - The company leads in green ship technology, holding a 70% global market share in LNG dual-fuel and methanol-powered vessels, with a high proportion of new orders for mid-to-high-end ship types [6]. - Following the merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, total assets will exceed 400 billion, with annual revenue surpassing 130 billion, positioning the company as the largest publicly listed shipbuilding company globally [7]. - The company achieved breakthroughs in technology, filing 748 patent applications, with a gross margin of 25%-30% in military business and over 35% for LNG vessels, enhancing its technological premium by 30% [8]. Group 3: Market Considerations - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 32.48, and the price-to-book ratio (LF) is about 3.17, both higher than the global shipbuilding industry average of 25-28, although institutions project a target price of 41 yuan [9]. - Despite significant cash flow improvement, the long shipbuilding cycle and concentrated prepayment may lead to fluctuations [9]. - The effectiveness of the merger and integration with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation is crucial, with expected annual operational cost savings exceeding 2 billion [10].

Core Viewpoint - The development of a modern marine industry system in Lianyungang is crucial for enhancing the city's economic growth and aligning with national strategies for building a strong marine nation [1][2]. Group 1: Marine Economic Development - Lianyungang's marine area covers 7,516 square kilometers, with a coastline of 195.88 kilometers, emphasizing its reliance on marine resources for future growth [2]. - The marine production value in Lianyungang is projected to reach around 120 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for over 25% of the regional GDP [2]. - The city aims to enhance its marine economy by focusing on industry strength, technological advancement, and ecological protection [3]. Group 2: Industrial Transformation - Lianyungang is actively improving its marine fisheries, developing marine tourism, and upgrading traditional industries while also expanding large-scale port industries like petrochemicals [3]. - The city is fostering marine innovation through talent programs and technological breakthroughs in areas such as offshore wind power and seawater utilization [3][4]. - Recent developments include the successful launch of an 8,500-ton bulk carrier and the establishment of a pure electric tugboat demonstration base [4]. Group 3: Urban and Economic Integration - The integration of port, industry, and city development is a key strategy for Lianyungang, enhancing its openness and facilitating domestic and international circulation [4][5]. - The city is leveraging its ecological resources to enhance urban features and promote tourism, making it an attractive destination for leisure [5]. - Lianyungang is developing a competitive "blue" new materials industry cluster and exploring integrated projects in renewable energy [5].