Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the shipping and port sector [2][8] Core Insights - The total import and export volume in China from January to August 2025 reached 29.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with imports at 11.96 trillion yuan (down 1.2%) and exports at 17.61 trillion yuan (up 6.9%) [16][19] - Coastal major ports handled a total cargo throughput of 7.688 billion tons from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [3][34] - Container throughput at coastal major ports reached 20.646 million TEUs, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [4][43] - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was reported at 1078 points on October 8, 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.27% [5][45] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) stood at 1963 points on October 8, 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 9.12% [7][60] Summary by Sections 1. Overview: National Import and Export Volume and Cargo Throughput - The national import and export volume for January to August 2025 was 29.57 trillion yuan, with imports at 11.96 trillion yuan (down 1.2%) and exports at 17.61 trillion yuan (up 6.9%) [16][19] 2. Container: Shipping Rates and Container Throughput - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) was at 1087.41 points on September 26, 2025, down 37.58% year-on-year [4][37] - Container throughput at coastal major ports was 20.646 million TEUs from January to August 2025, up 6.5% year-on-year [4][43] 3. Liquid Bulk: Oil Shipping Rates and Crude Oil Throughput - The BDTI was at 1078 points on October 8, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.27% [5][45] - Crude oil imports from January to August 2025 totaled 376 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [6][54] 4. Dry Bulk: Shipping Rates and Iron Ore, Coal Throughput - The BDI was reported at 1963 points on October 8, 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 9.12% [7][60] - Iron ore throughput from January to August 2025 reached 921 million tons, up 2.57% year-on-year [7][66] 5. Key Port Listed Companies Monthly Throughput - Major port companies reported various throughput figures, with Shanghai Port handling 0.55 billion tons in August 2025, a 10.25% increase year-on-year [78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the reporting date, the shipment volume of industrial products remained high, marginally supporting the transportation demand for Capesize vessels. The Capesize vessel freight index BCI maintained a weekly increase, supporting the continued rise of the BDI composite freight index. However, the BPI freight index continued to decline, and the BSI freight index turned from rising to falling, indicating that freight rates on some routes were starting to weaken. The significant reduction in wheat and soybean shipments dragged down the transportation demand for Handysize vessels, while the high shipment volume of industrial products such as Australian iron ore, South African coal, Russian coal, and Guinean bauxite supported the transportation demand for Capesize vessels [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Index Review 3.1.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - Compared with the data on September 12, the range of decline in the route - specific freight index widened, the decline of the BPI freight index increased, and the BSI freight index turned from rising to falling. In addition, the weekly increase of the BCI freight index narrowed, which also led to a narrowing of the increase in the BDI composite freight index. The BDI composite freight index closed at 2203 points, a week - on - week increase of 3.62%; the BCI freight index closed at 3437 points, a week - on - week increase of 11.95%; the BPI freight index closed at 1845 points, a week - on - week decrease of 8.03%; the BSI freight index closed at 1489 points, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%; the BHSI freight index closed at 815 points, a week - on - week increase of 1.37% [4]. 3.1.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On September 18, the FDI composite index, FDI rental freight index, and FDI spot freight index all rebounded, but the rebound amplitude decreased. In the FDI rental freight index, the rental freight of Capesize vessels still increased month - on - month. Specifically, the FDI composite freight index closed at 1389.93 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the FDI rental index closed at 1725.57 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.97%; among them, the Capesize vessel rental index closed at 1926.47 points, a month - on - month increase of 2.29%; the Panamax vessel rental index closed at 1550.88 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%; the Handymax vessel rental index closed at 1632.4 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21%; the FDI freight index closed at 1166.17 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [9]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipment Situation Tracking 3.2.1 Number of Vessels Used for Shipment in Sending Countries on the Day - The main sending countries of industrial products include Indonesia, Australia, Guinea, Russia, the United States, South Africa, Brazil, Canada, India, Colombia, Serbia, and Mozambique. The main sending countries of agricultural products include Russia, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, and the United States. On September 22, among the main sending countries of agricultural products, Brazil used 50 vessels for shipment, Russia used 14 vessels, Argentina used 22 vessels, and Australia used 3 vessels. Among the main sending countries of industrial products, Australia used 57 vessels, Guinea used 34 vessels, Indonesia used 39 vessels, Russia used 20 vessels, South Africa used 18 vessels, Brazil used 12 vessels, and the United States used 11 vessels [14][15]. 3.2.2 Analysis of Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage on the Day - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 21 vessels were used for corn shipment, 21 for wheat, 11 for soybeans, 12 for soybean meal, and 17 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 108 vessels were used for coal, 82 for iron ore, and 15 for other dry goods. In terms of vessel types, the largest number of vessels required for agricultural product shipments was 35 Post - Panamax vessels, followed by 21 Handymax vessels, and finally 17 Handysize vessels. For industrial product shipments, the largest number was 96 Capesize vessels, followed by 71 Post - Panamax vessels, and finally 53 Handymax vessels [15]. 3.3 Tracking of the Number of Vessels at Major Ports - The data for the week showed that the number of vessels at major Chinese ports decreased week - on - week. Data from mid - to late September showed that "three ports increased, two ports decreased." The expected number of dry - bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports increased by 8 week - on - week, the number of vessels docked at six Australian ports decreased by 5 week - on - week, the number of vessels at South African ports increased by 1 week - on - week, the number of vessels at Brazilian ports increased by 1 week - on - week, and the number of vessels at six Indonesian ports decreased by 2 week - on - week [16]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On September 19, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $40 per ton. On September 22, the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 3945.57 yuan per ton. On September 18, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $30205 per day. On September 19, the latest quote for the CIF price of iron ore was $120.75 per thousand tons. On September 18, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14490 per day. On September 18, the latest quote for the CIF price of thermal coal was 558.34 yuan per ton. On September 19, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 807.6 points. On September 19, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade ACFR radiata pine was quoted at $114 per cubic meter [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report As of the reporting date, the shipment volume of industrial products remained high, which marginally supported the transportation demand for large vessels such as Capesize ships. The week-on-week increase in the Capesize ship freight index BCI expanded, driving the further rise of the BDI composite freight index. Meanwhile, the increase in the BSI & BHSI freight indices narrowed, and the BPI freight index turned down, indicating weak freight rates on some routes. The significant increase in shipments from countries like Russia and Australia, especially the growth in wheat and soybean shipments, supported the transportation demand for Panamax and Handysize ships. The continued substantial increase in the shipment volume of industrial products such as Australian iron ore, South African coal, Russian coal, and Guinean bauxite supported the transportation demand for Capesize ships. Against the backdrop of the significant increase in agricultural product shipments and the high demand for industrial product shipments, dry bulk carriers continued to benefit [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Index Review 1.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis Compared with the data on September 11, except for the week-on-week decline of the BPI freight index, the week-on-week increase of the freight indices of other mainstream ship types continued. Among the sub - ship type freight indices, the weekly increase of the BCI freight index expanded to 12%, and the increase of the BSI & BHSI freight indices narrowed to less than 1%. However, the increase of the BDI composite freight index expanded. Specifically, the BDI composite freight index closed at 2205 points, a week-on-week increase of 4.45%; the BCI freight index closed at 3411 points, a week-on-week increase of 12.17%; the BPI freight index closed at 1881 points, a week-on-week decrease of 5.86%; the BSI freight index closed at 1492 points, a week-on-week increase of 0.54%; the BHSI freight index closed at 809 points, a week-on-week increase of 1% [4]. 1.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index On September 18, the FDI composite index, FDI rental freight index, and FDI spot freight index all rebounded. In the FDI rental freight index, the rental freight of Capesize ships still increased month - on - month. Specifically, the FDI composite freight index closed at 1378.93 points, a month - on - month increase of 1.18%; the FDI rental index closed at 1708.96 points, a month - on - month increase of 1.68%; among them, the Capesize ship rental index closed at 1883.36 points, a month - on - month increase of 4.23%; the Panamax ship rental index closed at 1549.47 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; the Handymax ship rental index closed at 1635.91 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%; the FDI freight index closed at 1158.92 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [9]. 2. Dry Bulk Shipment Situation Tracking 2.1 Number of Vessels Used for Shipment by Shipping Countries on the Day The main shipping countries for industrial products include Indonesia, Australia, Guinea, Russia, the United States, South Africa, Brazil, Canada, India, Colombia, Serbia, and Mozambique. The main shipping countries for agricultural products include Russia, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, and the United States. On September 19, among the main agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 54 ships for shipment, Russia used 20 ships, Argentina used 23 ships, Romania used 1 ship, and Australia used 4 ships. Among the main industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 57 ships, Guinea used 36 ships, Indonesia used 44 ships, Russia used 24 ships, South Africa used 15 ships, Brazil used 15 ships, and the United States used 9 ships [13][14]. 2.2 Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis on the Day In terms of agricultural product shipments, 20 ships were used for corn shipments, 29 for wheat, 25 for soybeans, 9 for soybean meal, and 15 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 110 ships were used for coal, 77 for iron ore, and 14 for other dry goods. By ship type, the shipment of agricultural products required the most Post - Panamax ships (40), followed by 28 Handymax ships and 22 Handysize ships. The shipment of industrial products required the most Capesize ships (96), followed by 69 Post - Panamax ships and 53 Handymax ships [15]. 3. Tracking of the Number of Ships at Major Ports The weekly data showed that except for the decrease in the number of ships at Australian ports, the number of ships at other ports increased week - on - week. In particular, the number of ships at major Chinese ports increased by 8. The data for mid - to - late September showed an increase at "four ports" with an expanding growth rate. It is expected that the number of dry bulk ships docked at Chinese ports will increase by 4 week - on - week, the number of ships docked at six Australian ports will increase by 9, the number of ships at South African ports will increase by 2, and the number of ships at Brazilian ports will increase by 1 [15][16]. 4. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - Brazilian soybeans: On September 18, the price of Brazilian soybeans was $40/ton. On September 19, the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 3986.98 yuan/ton. - Iron ore: On September 18, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $30,205/day. On September 18, the latest quote for the iron ore arrival price was $120.8/thousand tons. - Steam coal: On September 18, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14,490/day. On September 18, the latest quote for the steam coal arrival price was 555.93 yuan/ton. - Logs: On September 18, the Handysize ship freight index was quoted at 805.4 points. On September 19, the quote for 4 - meter medium ACFR radiata pine was $114/cubic meter [20].

南华干散货运输市场日报 ——铁矿石&煤炭发运大增，大船发运需求升温 2025年09月17日 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、总结 截至当日，工业品发运量大幅增加，边际上增加大船运输需求，尤其是海岬型船运输需求。因此，海岬型船 运价指数BCI周环比大涨。同时BPI和BSI&BHSI运价指数维持涨势，也支撑BDI综合运价指数进一步上涨。 从主要港口船舶停靠数量、商品发运、用船需求去看：加拿大、澳大利亚和乌克兰农产品发运量大增，边际 上增加巴拿马型船、灵便型船运输需求；澳大利亚铁矿石、南非煤炭、俄罗斯煤炭、几内亚铝土矿等工业品 发运量继续大幅增加。 在上述农产品和工业品发运需求均维持高位的背景下，干散货船继续受益，尤其是海岬型船受益特别明显。 BCI期现货价格比较 source： 同花顺,南华研究,路透 美元/天 BCI运价指数(右轴) BCI-C10_14航线运价 24/02 24/04 24/06 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/06 25/08 0 2000 4000 20000 40000 source： 同 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View As of the reporting date, due to the continuous improvement in commodity shipping volume, the demand for mainstream ship types has significantly increased, especially for Capesize and Panamax vessels. This has led to a substantial week - on - week increase in the BCI and BPI freight rate indices, supporting the BDI composite freight rate index to rise by over 8%. The shipping demand for both agricultural and industrial products has increased significantly, benefiting all dry - bulk carriers. [1][4] 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis - Compared with September 3 data, the week - on - week increase in the freight rate indices of mainstream ship types was significant. The BDI composite freight rate index closed at 2112 points, up 8.87% week - on - week; the BCI freight rate index was at 3071 points, up 10.75% week - on - week; the BPI freight rate index was at 1975 points, up 14.89% week - on - week; the BSI freight rate index was at 1478 points, up 0.75% week - on - week; and the BHSI freight rate index was at 798 points, up 1.27% week - on - week. [4] - The BDI composite freight rate index increased by 4.30% month - on - month and 105.25% compared to the beginning of the year; the BCI index decreased by 6.37% month - on - month but increased by 143.54% compared to the beginning of the year; the BPI index increased by 23.90% month - on - month and 97.5% compared to the beginning of the year; the BSI index increased by 10.63% month - on - month and 64.40% compared to the beginning of the year; the BHSI index increased by 15.65% month - on - month and 44% compared to the beginning of the year. [5][7] 2.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index - On September 10, the FDI composite index, FDI rental freight index, and FDI spot freight index all increased. Among them, the rental freight of Panamax vessels in the FDI rental freight index had the largest month - on - month increase. - The FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1366.34 points, up 1.11% month - on - month; the FDI rental index was at 1686.96 points, up 1.3% month - on - month. The Capesize vessel rental index was at 1822.95 points, up 1.77% month - on - month; the Panamax vessel rental index was at 1546.77 points, up 2.03% month - on - month; the Handymax vessel rental index was at 1645.83 points, down 0.03% month - on - month; the FDI freight rate index was at 1152.59 points, up month - on - month. [8] 3.1 Daily Shipping Country Shipping and Vessel Usage Quantity - On September 11, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 58 vessels, Russia 8 vessels, Argentina 18 vessels, Uruguay 0 vessels, and Australia 0 vessels. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 58 vessels, Guinea 37 vessels, Indonesia 47 vessels, Russia 15 vessels, South Africa 19 vessels, Brazil 13 vessels, and the United States 8 vessels. [15][16] 3.2 Daily Shipping Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis - In terms of agricultural product shipping, 22 vessels were used for corn shipping, 21 for wheat, 21 for soybeans, 10 for soybean meal, and 20 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipping, 104 vessels were used for coal, 75 for iron ore, and 23 for other dry goods. - For agricultural product shipping, the most required were Post - Panamax vessels (42), followed by Handymax vessels (22), and then Handysize vessels (27). For industrial product shipping, the most required were Capesize vessels (92), followed by Post - Panamax vessels (72), and then Handymax vessels (60). [17] 4. Main Port Vessel Quantity Tracking - In mid - September, the number of vessels docked at Chinese ports continued to increase. The data showed that the number of dry - bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports was expected to increase by 22 week - on - week, while the number at Australian ports decreased by 2, and the number at Indonesian ports increased by 1. The number of vessels at Brazilian and South African ports remained unchanged. [18] 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On September 10, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $39/ton, and the near - term shipping quote was 4033.52 yuan/ton. - On September 10, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $28045/day, and the latest quote for iron ore CIF price was $123.95/kiloton. - On September 10, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14227/day, and the latest quote for steam coal CIF price was 544.6 yuan/ton. - On September 10, the Handysize vessel freight rate index was quoted at 790.4 points. On September 12, the 4 - meter medium ACFR radiata pine was quoted at $114/cubic meter. [22]

Genco Shipping & Trading (GNK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Genco Shipping is a leading dry bulk shipping company based in New York, focusing on larger Capesize and midsize vessels [2][3] - The company operates 43 ships and has global offices in Singapore and Copenhagen [4][5] - Genco transported 24 million tons of dry bulk commodities last year, with dry bulk accounting for 46% of global seaborne trade [9][10] Key Financial Metrics - Genco has a low leverage ratio with a net loan to value of 7% [7][21] - The company has paid down approximately 80% of its debt over the last five years, reducing it from $450 million to $100 million [23] - Genco has a cash position of about $36 million and a revolving credit facility of $600 million [21][24] - The company has maintained a quarterly dividend policy, paying out approximately $7 per share, equating to over 40% of the share price [26] Market Dynamics - The dry bulk freight market has shown strength, with the Baltic Capesize Index experiencing significant increases [27] - China's iron ore imports have remained firm, with stockpiles drawn down by about 10% compared to last year [28] - The global dry bulk order book is historically low at about 10-11%, indicating limited fleet growth [31][35] Strategic Focus - Genco's strategy includes fleet growth and renewal, with a focus on larger vessels due to their higher return on invested capital (ROIC) [14][17] - The company aims to balance dividends, debt reduction, and growth, with a variable dividend policy targeting 100% of operating cash flows [25][50] - Genco plans to leverage its low debt levels to acquire additional assets, particularly larger ships [24][50] Industry Outlook - Significant supply is expected from the Atlantic Basin, particularly iron ore from Brazil and West Africa, which will impact Capesize rates positively [28][36] - The company anticipates tighter market conditions in the coming years due to limited new orders and an aging fleet [31][66] - Genco's management believes that the demand for dry bulk shipping will grow, particularly with new projects coming online in West Africa [36][52] Governance and ESG - Genco has been ranked number one globally in ESG by Weber Research, highlighting its transparency and governance practices [8][19] - The company has a diverse board of directors, with half being female, which is noted as unusual in the shipping industry [19] Additional Insights - The bauxite trade from West Africa to China has seen significant growth, providing additional opportunities for Genco [29][47] - The company has a strong focus on maintaining a robust balance sheet to navigate market volatility and capitalize on opportunities [32][50] - Genco's management emphasizes the importance of capital allocation and governance in the shipping industry due to its inherent volatility [32][36]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The oil shipping sector is currently undervalued, with companies showing resilience and dividend support, suggesting a focus on left-side opportunities and seasonal demand improvements [1] - Recent shipping price updates indicate a rebound in container shipping rates for the US routes, while European routes have declined. The SCFI index shows a week-on-week change of +17.0% for US routes and -11.2% for European routes [2] - The dry bulk shipping market has seen a strong recent increase in freight rates, with the BDI index up by 7.0% week-on-week, indicating potential demand improvements [2] Group 2: Company Focus - Companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy (中远海能), China Merchants Energy Shipping (招商轮船), and China Merchants Jinling (招商南油) are highlighted as key players to watch due to their potential for growth and dividend yields [1] - High-dividend private enterprises like Seaspan (海丰国际) and Zhonggu Logistics (中谷物流) are recommended for their short-term and long-term value propositions, particularly during the peak season in the second half of the year [1] - The small container ship supply in the Asian region is expected to remain tight, with only a 1-2% annual increase in supply over the next three years, while the proportion of older ships (over 25 years) is at 11.2% [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The average capacity of vessels in the Asian region is concentrated in larger global operators, with the top ten companies holding about 70% of the capacity share, indicating a high chartering ratio [3] - The deployment of vessels in Asia is primarily focused on larger ships (3,000 TEU and above), which creates a competitive landscape with companies like Seaspan focusing on smaller vessels for regional routes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huayuan Securities indicates that China Merchants Energy achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.125 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.91%. However, the second quarter saw a net profit of 1.259 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.25% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.49% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company continued to expand its capacity and opened new routes in Asia and Latin America [1] - The company's net profit from container shipping increased significantly by 161.67% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [1] - The weak oil and bulk shipping markets are contrasted by the substantial increase in container shipping profits, highlighting the company's resilience [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The implementation of the U.S. tariff policy is expected to create structural growth opportunities for routes within Asia and between China and Latin America due to cost advantages in Southeast Asia and South America [1] - The domestic "anti-involution" trend and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle are anticipated to support commodity prices in the second half of 2025 [1] - The expected production of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea by the end of 2025, along with the growth in bauxite exports from Guinea, may boost demand for bulk shipping [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Given the upward fundamentals in the oil and bulk shipping markets, the company is expected to benefit from a dual business resonance [1] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company's stock [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.74%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 87 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.14% [1] - The decline in performance is primarily due to a significant drop in dry bulk shipping market rates and increased costs from ship maintenance and environmental upgrades [1][2] - Despite short-term pressures, the company is expanding capacity and optimizing fleet structure, which is expected to improve performance as the market recovers in the second half of the year [1] Revenue and Profit Performance - In the first half of 2025, the global dry bulk shipping market faced multiple pressures, with key indices (BDI, BCI, BPI, BSI) declining by 30% to 33% year-on-year [2] - The company undertook maintenance and upgrades on 12 vessels during a low market period, leading to increased repair and material costs [2] - The financial burden from increased leasing costs also contributed to the pressure on profit margins [2] Operational Efficiency - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience by selecting high-margin routes and flexible global vessel scheduling, achieving an average TCE of $12,258 per day for its ultra-flexible vessels, which is approximately 33% above the market average [3] - This performance is attributed to the company's deep expertise in vessel management, route allocation, and cost control [3] Capacity Expansion and Fleet Optimization - The company is strategically expanding its capacity by acquiring 12 new vessels during a period of relatively low ship prices, aiming to reach a total dry bulk shipping capacity of 4.84 million deadweight tons [4] - In addition to reinforcing its core ultra-flexible vessel advantage, the company is diversifying into Panamax and Capesize operations and has acquired a heavy-lift multipurpose vessel to enter the high-end equipment and project cargo transport market [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 360 million yuan, 790 million yuan, and 1.14 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.39 yuan, 0.87 yuan, and 1.24 yuan [5] - The company's strong operational capabilities and cost advantages, along with synchronized capacity expansion and market recovery, are expected to release higher profit elasticity [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 7.90, down 24% from the previous target price [7][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 12.58 billion for 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, and a net profit of RMB 2.12 billion, down 14.9% year-on-year, which was below the expected RMB 2.32 billion [1][5]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to the weak international oil and bulk cargo markets, leading to a drop in freight rates [1][5]. - The container shipping segment performed well due to tariff disruptions, resulting in a year-on-year increase in freight rates in the Asian region [1][5]. - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, seasonal demand is expected to boost oil and bulk freight rates, with a potential recovery in the market [1][5]. Summary by Sections International Oil Shipping - The company's oil tanker business generated revenue of RMB 4.44 billion in 1H25, down 10.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.29 billion, a decrease of 22.8% [2]. - The decline in the international oil shipping market is primarily due to increased geopolitical uncertainties affecting production consumption and crude oil replenishment demand [2]. - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) averaged a year-on-year decrease of 21.4% in 1H25, with VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax rates down 4.6%, 11.3%, and 32.3% respectively [2]. - There is an expectation for a recovery in oil shipping rates in the second half of the year, driven by seasonal demand and replenishment needs [2]. International Dry Bulk Shipping - The dry bulk shipping segment reported revenue of RMB 3.70 billion in 1H25, down 6.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 420 million, a significant drop of 47.3% [3]. - The profit decline is attributed to weak macro demand, putting pressure on the global dry bulk market, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaging a year-on-year decrease of 29.7% [3]. - Despite the weak spot market rates, the company has strengthened project cooperation with key clients, securing stable long-term earnings from its VLOC fleet [3]. - There is an expectation for marginal improvement in demand and a potential stabilization of dry bulk freight rates in the second half of the year [3]. Container and LNG Shipping - The container shipping business saw a net profit of RMB 630 million in 1H25, a remarkable increase of 161.5% year-on-year, driven by significant increases in freight rates due to tariff disruptions [4]. - The company has accelerated its LNG business development, achieving a net profit of RMB 320 million in 1H25, with 23 LNG vessels in operation and 41 on order, all under long-term charter contracts [4]. - The roll-on/roll-off shipping business reported a net profit of RMB 110 million in 1H25, down 37.4% year-on-year, primarily due to increased vessel supply and declining freight rates [4]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the international oil and bulk shipping sectors may have reached a bottom in 1H25, with potential recovery driven by the US interest rate cut cycle and economic recovery in China, which could boost global commodity demand [5]. - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down by 29%, 18%, and 9% respectively, to RMB 4.72 billion, RMB 5.23 billion, and RMB 5.69 billion [5].