招商轮船（601872）(601872.SH)发布公告，公司预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为60 亿元至66亿元，同比增长17%至29%。 公司2025年度业绩预计出现增长的主要原因为：1、油轮船队抓住市场复苏机遇，第四季度经营利润同 比预计增加200-230%。2、受益于多种因素，报告期预计实现的非经常性收益大幅增长，主要包括处置 老旧船舶实现良好收益、收购安通股份股票三季度实现公允价值变动收益(四季度开始按权益法核算) 等;3、干散货船队、滚装船队预计报告期经营利润阶段性有所下滑。 ...

1月6日，上海国际航运研究中心发布2025年第四季度中国航运景气报告。报告显示，2025年第四季度， 中国航运景气指数为112.23点，较上季度上涨0.61点，维持相对景气区间；中国航运信心指数为120.20 点，较上季度上涨7.80点，由相对景气区间升至较为景气区间，航运企业经营情况依旧保持韧性。 展望2026年第一季度市场趋势，中国航运景气指数编制室主任周德全向证券时报·e公司记者表示，据调 查，2026年第一季度中国航运景气指数预计为106.69点，较去年第四季度下降5.54点，由相对景气区间 降至微景气区间；2026年第一季度中国航运信心指数预计为96.12点，较2025年第四季度下降24.08点， 降至微弱不景气区间。 干散货运输企业进入较景气区间 从细分行业来看，2025年第四季度，船舶运输企业景气指数为122.55点，较上季度上升10.74点，进入较 为景气区间；船舶运输企业信心指数为114.35点，较上季度上升6.42点，由微景气区间升至相对景气区 间。船舶运输企业总体营运状况持续向好，企业家们对市场经营信心充足。船舶运输企业经营指标基本 向好。从各项指标来看，虽然船舶运输企业营运成本依然较高 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry, but it recommends specific companies such as SF Express and China Southern Airlines based on their performance and market conditions [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector shows a year-on-year growth of 5% in November, with some companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition. The total express delivery volume reached approximately 180.6 billion pieces, while revenue decreased by 3.7% to 137.65 billion yuan [2]. - In logistics, the chemical transportation prices remained stable, and the report recommends Haichen Co. for its focus on smart logistics and improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector experienced a slight increase in flight operations, with an average of 14,612 flights per day, reflecting a 1.79% year-on-year growth. The report anticipates profit elasticity for airlines due to supply constraints and rising ticket prices [4]. - The shipping sector indicates a mixed performance, with container shipping rates showing a slight increase, while dry bulk shipping rates have decreased. The report highlights the impact of geopolitical events on oil tanker operations [5]. - The road and rail sector shows stable performance, with highway freight traffic increasing by 2.02% week-on-week, and the Daqin Railway reported a 1.75% increase in freight volume [6][89]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The transportation index rose by 1.3% during the week of December 20-26, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.9%. The logistics sector had the highest gain at 5.5%, while the aviation sector saw a decline of 0.7% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The report notes a slowdown in container shipping declines, with support from seasonal demand and long-term contracts. However, it warns of potential downward pressure on rates in January due to increased capacity [24]. - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was reported at 1,146.67 points, up 2.0% week-on-week but down 24.3% year-on-year [25]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The civil aviation sector saw a total passenger volume of 60.17 million in November, a 6% increase year-on-year, with domestic routes growing by 5% and international routes by 19% [58]. - The report highlights that airlines are expected to see significant profit increases in Q4 due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [58]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The report indicates that national railway passenger volume reached 331 million in November, a year-on-year increase of 8.94%, while freight volume was 460 million tons, up 1.16% [83]. - The highway freight traffic showed a slight increase, with a total of 55.44 million trucks passing through highways during the week of December 16-21 [89].

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the logistics sector, specifically highlighting companies such as SF Holding and ZTO Express due to their valuation and operational resilience [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a 5% year-on-year increase in business volume in November, with some companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition. The total express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, with revenue at 137.65 billion yuan, a 3.7% decline year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand. The chemical product price index decreased by 11.5% year-on-year, indicating a challenging pricing environment [3]. - The aviation sector experienced a slight increase in flight operations, with an average of 14,421 flights per day, a 2.34% increase year-on-year. The report anticipates profit elasticity for airlines due to supply constraints and rising ticket prices [4]. - The shipping sector's container transport index increased by 0.6% week-on-week, while the shipping rates remain under pressure due to fluctuating demand. The report notes a significant year-on-year decline in shipping rates [5]. - The road and rail sector showed a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 2% decrease week-on-week. However, the Daqin Railway reported a 1.75% increase in freight volume year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The transportation index rose by 2.0% from December 13 to December 19, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.3% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing a slowdown in container shipping rates, with the CCFI index at 1124.73 points, down 24.6% year-on-year. The report highlights the need to monitor demand and pricing trends closely [22][23]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is seeing a positive trend in passenger traffic, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in October. The report expects significant profit growth in Q4 due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [58][80]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The rail sector reported a year-on-year increase in passenger traffic of 8.94% in November, while road freight volume increased by 3.57% year-on-year. The report indicates a stable outlook for both sectors [85][90].

每经AI快讯，12月20日，上海航运交易所发布的远东干散货运输市场周度报告显示，本周，国际干散 货运输市场三大船型运价跌多涨少，中小型船日租金跌幅有所扩大，远东干散货租金指数继续承压下 行。分船型来看，海岬型船市场太平洋市场小幅下跌，远程矿航线运价小幅上涨，总体运价水平明显好 于上年同期。巴拿马型船和超灵便型船市场煤炭、粮食货盘依旧偏少，市场船多货少，日租金继续承压 下行。12月18日，上海航运交易所发布的远东干散货租金指数为1581.37点，较12月11日下跌12.7%。 ...

尽管《三季报》营收降逾两成、净利润亏损超5500万元，但凤凰航运股价近期因4000余万元拆船补贴、6000万美元买船计划等利好强势上涨，并于11月28 日突然涨停。凤凰航运触底反弹了吗 11月28日，凤凰航运（武汉）股份有限公司（凤凰航运；000520.SZ）触及涨停价5.02元，主力净流入超4000万元。而就在1个月前，这家公司交出营收同 比降逾两成、净利润亏损超5500万元的三季报。业绩不佳却股价上涨，或是因为市场嗅到了异动：一笔4000余万元的拆船补贴，一项6000万美元的买船计 划，还有新一轮人士变动。凤凰航运准备触底反弹，还是一场烟雾弹？ 股价异动： 补贴、买船与筹码集中"点火" 10 月 27 日，凤凰航运披露2025 年《第三季度业绩报告》（《三季报》），业绩呈现营收下滑与盈利承压的不良态势。公告显示，公司第三季度实现营业 收入2.05亿元，同比减少20.73%；净利润亏损5684.73万元，单季亏损对整体业绩造成显著拖累。从前三季度整体表现来看，公司实现营业总收入5.49亿 元，同比下降27.40%，与头部企业招商轮船193.1亿元的营收规模存在明显量级差距；净利润亏损5561.71万元，同比 ...

消息面上，波罗的海干散货运价指数上周五延续跌势，触及近一个月低位，受所有型船下跌拖累。波罗 的海干散货运价指数较前一交易日下跌89点，或3.88%，报2205点，创11月17日以来最低，周线下跌 15.9%，为1月20日以来最差表现。 智通财经APP获悉，太平洋航运(02343)再跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.08%，报2.35港元，成交额7838.51万 港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the express delivery sector, specifically highlighting SF Holding and Zhongtong Express as favorable investment opportunities [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector shows a year-on-year growth of 6% in the development scale index for November, with major companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition [2]. - The logistics sector is advised to focus on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight increase in flight volumes, with recommendations for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines based on profit elasticity from supply-demand optimization [4]. - The shipping sector sees a stable demand for container transport, with COSCO Shipping announcing new ship orders valued at 7.88 billion yuan [5]. - The road and rail sector shows a mixed performance, with a slight decline in truck traffic but a stable outlook for coal transportation [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Transportation Market Review - The transportation index decreased by 1.5% during the week of December 6-12, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.4% [13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The container shipping index CCFI is at 1118.07 points, a 0.3% increase week-on-week but a 24.8% decrease year-on-year [22]. - The oil shipping index BDTI is at 1383.6 points, down 1.7% week-on-week but up 48.8% year-on-year [40]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with domestic flights up by 1.99% and international flights up by 7.78% [4]. - In October 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 67.84 million, a year-on-year increase of 8% [60]. 2.3 Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume in October 2025 was 410 million, a 10.14% increase year-on-year [81]. - National road freight volume was 3.706 billion tons, a slight increase of 0.08% year-on-year [86]. 2.4 Express Delivery and Logistics - The total express delivery volume for the week of December 1-7 was approximately 3.979 billion pieces, a 1.7% increase year-on-year [2].

需求端，OPEC+持续增产压制油价，带来了原油炼油、补库需求的强劲回升，7月以来中国主营、地方 炼厂开工率均回到较高位置，港口原油库存指数亦回到三年来的高位。需求强劲增长下，2025年8月以 来油轮运价强势回升，10月末VLCC-TCE已涨至近10万美元/天，创造了2020H2以来的新高。 供给端，目前油轮船队平均船龄达到14.07年，20年以上老船占比达到20.57%，而在手订单仅达到现有 船队运力的13.29%，并不足以应对老船更新需求;在美国制裁不断加码与环保要求持续提升下，老旧运 力出清将被迫加速，新增运力或不抵出清运力。预计原油油轮船队规模2026、2027年分别达到4.68亿载 重吨、4.82亿载重吨。 OPEC+增产大逻辑未变，运力供给受限，美国制裁愈演愈烈下，继续看好2026油轮运价高度持续性。 干散货航运板块：具有多重利好期权，关注几内亚西芒杜铁矿发运形势 需求端，几内亚铝土矿出口持续增长，西芒杜铁矿亦已于2025年11月投产，未来数年产能将不断爬坡上 行，有望带来运距增长;此外，俄乌、巴以停火若得以落实，战后重建亦将提振干散货航运需求。 智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，2026年有 ...

2025年12月，波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)阶段性反弹，再加上西非西芒杜铁矿项目逐步投产，干散货航运的大周期拐点算是 正式来了。 尽管短期仍面临地域摩擦、主力货种需求分化的扰动，但供给侧的运力收缩、地缘格局驱动的吨海里需求增长，以及绿色转 型带来的行业重构，正共同勾勒出干散货市场的长期演绎路径。在这场周期与成长的交织中，结构性机遇与行业变局已清晰 浮现。 01 周期初现反转 地缘格局 地缘摩擦虽然压制了部分货种需求，却倒逼了贸易路线重构，间接拉长了运距。比如中国多买巴西大豆，中东小麦需求找更 多供应国，长距离运输的占比上去了，相当于给干散货运输添了"隐形订单"。 02 航运周期预演 这轮干散货大周期不是单一因素催出来的，是供给、需求、地缘格局三方面共同发力的结果。 供给端 现在干散货船队的供给特别紧张。据Clarksons数据，2025年干散货船队的手持订单占总运力的比例只有11%，是过去25年最 低，在航运各细分领域里也垫底。 旧船拆解潮还在加剧运力紧张。2025年干散货船拆解量从2024年的470万载重吨涨到660万载重吨，2026年预计会冲到970万 载重吨，巴拿马型船是拆解主力。同时新造船订单暴跌8 ...