Group 1 - The China Agricultural Economic and Development Research Institute released the "China Agricultural Industry Development Report 2025," predicting that China's agricultural production will continue to improve, with total grain output expected to reach 1.426 trillion jin by 2025 [1] - The report indicates that in 2024, China's grain production will surpass 1.4 trillion jin for the first time, with an increase of 5.1 jin per mu in yield, and record high production of eggs and aquatic products [1] - The livestock ETF has shown strong performance, with an average daily trading volume of 21.78 million yuan over the past year and a 4.24% annualized return exceeding the benchmark over the last three months [1] Group 2 - The pig farming sector is currently facing constraints in supply due to factors such as the reduction of breeding sows and the early market release of commercial pigs, which may lead to favorable conditions for pig prices in the long term [2] - The valuation levels of the pig farming sector are at historical lows, presenting good cost-performance ratios, and the advantages of leading companies in the industry are enhancing their dividend attributes [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 68.9% of the index, including companies like Haida Group, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [2]

截至05月20日11:18，畜牧ETF(159867.SZ)上涨1.16%，其关联指数中证畜牧(930707.CSI)上涨1.41%；主 要成分股中，海大集团上涨2.88%，瑞普生物上涨12.46%，巨星农牧上涨4.53%，生物股份上涨2.65%， 牧原股份上涨0.64%。 消息面上，香港特区政府宣布暂停进口巴西和美国部分地区的禽肉及禽类产品，因上述地区爆发高致病 性H5N1禽流感；欧盟亦禁止从巴西全境进口家禽及肉类产品。此前巴西首次在商业养殖场发现高致病 性禽流感疫情，已启动应急响应。全球禽流感疫情加剧或推升国内畜牧产业链供需预期，部分成分股受 资金关注。 券商研究方面，财通证券指出"惜售情绪猪价震荡偏强，供应偏紧毛鸡价格上涨"，认为生猪养殖板块5 月受需求端节后回落及大猪出栏增加影响，猪价或呈现震荡偏弱态势，但需关注后续供应压力释放节奏 对产能去化的潜在影响；白羽鸡养殖方面则因鸡苗和毛鸡供应紧张缓解，预计价格震荡偏弱，但祖代鸡 引种不确定性对产业链价格形成支撑。兴业证券则聚焦肉牛养殖行业，分析国内种源结构特点，指出西 门塔尔牛等引进品种因生长速度及屠宰率优势占据主导，本土品种在适应性方面具备竞争力，但未直 ...