Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market dynamics that promote capacity reduction, leading to a potential price turning point in Q2 2026, with long-term performance improvements anticipated for related stocks [3][43] - The structural growth trend in the post-cycle sector continues, with profits likely to gradually transmit downstream if the current round of pig capacity reduction proceeds smoothly, benefiting the animal health sector [3] - The planting chain shows a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, indicating favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities [3] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth and price increase logic, with continuous recognition of domestic brands and sustained growth of leading companies [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs as of December 31 was 12.76 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 10.38%, while the average price of 15 kg piglets was 19.44 yuan/kg, up 2.21% week-on-week [12][51] - The supply side shows a widening price gap for fattened pigs, supporting price increases, while demand is boosted by consumption expectations during the New Year holiday [12][17] Poultry - The price of white feather broilers increased to 7.82 yuan/kg, up 6.39% week-on-week, and chick prices rose to 3.59 yuan/chick, up 1.7% week-on-week [17][51] - The supply of meat chickens has increased, leading to a more relaxed market supply, while demand has weakened due to some slaughterhouses reducing operations [17] Feed Sector - The prices of corn, wheat, and soybean meal have risen, with corn averaging 2351.57 yuan/ton, up 0.57% week-on-week, and soybean meal at 3172.29 yuan/ton, up 0.96% week-on-week [27][51] - Increased selling enthusiasm among farmers is noted, although the pace of supply remains slow [27] Major Agricultural Products - The domestic natural rubber futures price was 15605 yuan/ton as of December 31, down 0.29% week-on-week, with inventory levels increasing [38][51] - The current down cycle for sugar prices continues, with no significant recovery expected [39]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company is a key player in the agricultural and animal husbandry industry in Xinjiang, with a comprehensive business model covering feed production, animal health, pig farming, and protein oil processing. It ranks among the top 20 in pig farming and feed production in China [4][17]. - Despite a downturn in the pig farming industry, the company managed to achieve a revenue of 13.61 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4%, and a net profit of 412 million yuan [4][24]. - The report emphasizes the dual catalysts of fundamental and policy factors driving the pig farming sector, suggesting a left-side investment opportunity as the industry undergoes capacity adjustments [6][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a state-owned enterprise under the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, established in 1993, and has expanded its operations to include various segments of the agricultural industry [17][18]. - It has a strong market position, being one of the eight designated producers of foot-and-mouth disease vaccines in China [4][17]. 2. Pig Farming Sector - The report notes that the pig farming sector is experiencing a decline in profitability, with the average price of pigs dropping from 15-16 yuan/kg at the beginning of 2025 to around 11-12 yuan/kg by December 2025 [32][39]. - The company is expected to face further losses in the coming quarters due to ongoing supply pressures and market conditions [41][42]. 3. Business Growth and Cost Optimization - The company is focusing on both internal growth through cost optimization and external growth via acquisitions, such as the recent purchase of Qiangdu Livestock [6][55]. - The report highlights that the company’s pig output has been steadily increasing, with a projected output of 302.85 million pigs in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6% [56][60]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 17.50 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 660 million yuan, and further growth expected in subsequent years [5][7]. - The report estimates a target market value of 13.68 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of approximately 38.3% from the current market capitalization [7][29]. 5. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the broader industry context, noting that the current cycle of capacity reduction in pig farming is expected to be more pronounced than in previous years, which may lead to a stabilization of prices in the future [9][47]. - The company’s strategic positioning and operational efficiencies are expected to enhance its competitive edge in a challenging market environment [9][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, driven by recent policies and market conditions, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [3][9] - The report identifies several investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][43] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming industry is experiencing accelerated capacity reduction, with current pig prices and expectations both weak, leading to a significant decline in profitability [9] - In November, 14 listed pig companies collectively slaughtered 16.82 million pigs, a decrease of 2.21% month-on-month but an increase of 22.48% year-on-year [13] - The average selling price of pigs showed a slight recovery, with prices ranging from 11.1 to 12.53 yuan/kg, although still down approximately 30% year-on-year [15] Feed Sector - The report notes that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with corn prices slightly down and soybean meal prices up [28] - As of December 12, corn prices averaged 2,356.67 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, while soybean meal prices rose by 1.54% to 3,159.43 yuan/ton [28] Planting Sector - The report indicates a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, suggesting favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries, with significant investment opportunities [3][43] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with increasing domestic brand recognition and continuous growth among leading companies [3][43]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [61]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a weekly increase of 1.57%, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing a downward price trend, with an average price of 11.19 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.87% [21]. - The poultry farming sector is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of the market, with yellow feathered chicken prices showing improvement due to better downstream demand [28]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory trends are decreasing [35]. - The planting industry is facing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if there are significant reductions in grain production [42]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2991.22 points, with a weekly increase of 1.57%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.40% [13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.22 kg, with ongoing losses in the industry. The number of breeding sows is decreasing, indicating accelerated capacity reduction [3][21][22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feathered chicken prices are under pressure, while yellow feathered chicken prices are improving due to better demand and supply contraction [4][28]. 2.3 Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 26.80 yuan/kg, with expectations for steady price increases as the market enters a consumption peak [5][35]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are at 2218.57 yuan/ton, with fluctuations expected due to new crop listings and external uncertainties [42][43]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices are stabilizing, while aquaculture prices are showing upward trends, particularly for shrimp and fish products [48][55].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the national breeding sow inventory has fallen below 40 million heads as of the end of October, indicating a significant adjustment in the pig farming sector [4] - The report notes a continuous decline in pig prices, with the average price dropping to 11.6 yuan/kg by November 24, down from 12.25 yuan/kg at the end of September, leading to widespread losses among farming enterprises [4] - The report suggests that the industry may enter a period of accelerated capacity reduction due to policy adjustments and ongoing losses, presenting potential investment opportunities in the pig farming sector [4] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of 0.83% and an absolute return of 15.89% [2] Key Events and Data - The report mentions that the breeding sow inventory decreased by 0.8% in October, marking a continuous decline for two months [4] - The average price of three-way piglets reached a new low of 24.14 yuan/kg as of November 20, indicating a pessimistic outlook for prices in 2026 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a left-side layout in the pig farming sector, focusing on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, DeKang Agriculture (Hong Kong), Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group, while also considering investment opportunities in the fishery sector [4]

Group 1 - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Zhongmu Co., Ltd. leading the gains at 4.31% [1] - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets increased by 1.3% to 17.96 yuan per kilogram as of October 27 [1] - Galaxy Securities indicates that losses in October may accelerate the reduction of pig farming capacity, highlighting opportunities in the pig farming industry based on the value of breeding sows and farming efficiency [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 66.06% of the index, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [2]

Core Viewpoint - The swine breeding industry is experiencing dual catalysts from both fundamental and policy aspects, enhancing the motivation for capacity reduction [1] Industry Summary - As of the end of August, the national breeding sow inventory stands at 40.38 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a reduction of 340,000 heads from the peak at the end of last year [1] - Major production areas are facing an average loss of 74 yuan per head, with the loss margin widening [1] - The occurrence of African swine fever in Vietnam and Guangxi, combined with signals from the National Development and Reform Commission regarding capacity reduction policies, has significantly increased market-driven capacity reduction motivation [1] - Current market valuations for breeding listed companies are at historical low levels, highlighting long-term investment value [1] Company Summary - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock feed, vaccines, breeding, and slaughtering to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - This index focuses on upstream enterprises in the agricultural and food supply chain, demonstrating strong industry representativeness [1]

Group 1 - Several listed companies in the pig farming industry reported their sales data for May, with New Hope selling 1.3339 million pigs, a month-on-month decrease of 16.42% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.41%, while Wens Foodstuff Group sold 3.1554 million pigs, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.64% and a year-on-year increase of 32.64% [1] - The average selling price of pigs for New Hope was 14.59 yuan/kg, down 0.75% month-on-month and down 5.38% year-on-year, while Wens Foodstuff Group's average price was 14.68 yuan/kg, down 1.61% month-on-month and down 7.26% year-on-year [1] - Despite the decline in sales, the pig farming sector has been profitable for 12 consecutive months, and price fluctuations in the industry are expected to remain moderate, allowing leading companies to maintain profitability [1][2] Group 2 - As temperatures rise, pork consumption is weak, and the growth rate of pigs slows down, leading to a decrease in both supply and demand, which keeps pig prices stable [2] - The profit from piglet sales has been substantial in the first five months of the year, and there is a slow reduction in pig farming capacity, with the market still having ample supply [2] - The cost of feed has significantly decreased compared to 2023, contributing to sustained profitability in pig farming since April 2024, although profits have noticeably shrunk since May [2][3] Group 3 - The high inventory of breeding sows continues to lead to an oversupply of pigs, keeping prices low and significantly compressing farmers' profits, making cost control essential for survival and growth [3] - Large farming groups benefit from economies of scale, having stronger bargaining power in feed procurement, while small farmers face disadvantages due to limited scale and resources [3] - Analysts suggest that pig prices are unlikely to fluctuate significantly this year, and the industry's profitability will be a key focus, with cost differences being the most effective indicator of companies' profitability [3] Group 4 - New Hope aims to "repair growth" and enhance profitability by focusing on flexible operations, continuous cost reduction, and improving labor efficiency [4] - Wens Foodstuff Group noted a shift in the industry from capital expansion to cost competition, indicating a transition from short-term to long-term competitive strategies [4]