证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2025 年 11 月 25 日 江海证券研究发展部 消费行业研究组 分析师：张婧 执业证书编号：S1410525010001 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 7.1 -0.89 0.83 绝对收益 2.53 0.71 15.89 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 注：2025 年 11 月 24 日数据 -18% -9% 1% 10% 19% 28% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 1. 江海证券-行业点评报告-农林牧渔："反 内卷"叠加亏损减产，生猪养殖有望进入 产能去化周期 – 2025.09.25 2. 江海证券-行业点评报告-农林牧渔行 业：中央一号文件发布，首提农业新质生 产力 – 2025.02.24 3. 江海证券-行业点评报告-农林牧渔行 投资评级说明 | 投资建议的评级标准 | | 评级 | 说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 股票评级 | 买入 增持 | 相对同期基准指数涨幅在 15%以 ...

Group 1 - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Zhongmu Co., Ltd. leading the gains at 4.31% [1] - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets increased by 1.3% to 17.96 yuan per kilogram as of October 27 [1] - Galaxy Securities indicates that losses in October may accelerate the reduction of pig farming capacity, highlighting opportunities in the pig farming industry based on the value of breeding sows and farming efficiency [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index account for 66.06% of the index, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [2]

Core Viewpoint - The swine breeding industry is experiencing dual catalysts from both fundamental and policy aspects, enhancing the motivation for capacity reduction [1] Industry Summary - As of the end of August, the national breeding sow inventory stands at 40.38 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a reduction of 340,000 heads from the peak at the end of last year [1] - Major production areas are facing an average loss of 74 yuan per head, with the loss margin widening [1] - The occurrence of African swine fever in Vietnam and Guangxi, combined with signals from the National Development and Reform Commission regarding capacity reduction policies, has significantly increased market-driven capacity reduction motivation [1] - Current market valuations for breeding listed companies are at historical low levels, highlighting long-term investment value [1] Company Summary - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock feed, vaccines, breeding, and slaughtering to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - This index focuses on upstream enterprises in the agricultural and food supply chain, demonstrating strong industry representativeness [1]

Group 1 - Several listed companies in the pig farming industry reported their sales data for May, with New Hope selling 1.3339 million pigs, a month-on-month decrease of 16.42% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.41%, while Wens Foodstuff Group sold 3.1554 million pigs, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.64% and a year-on-year increase of 32.64% [1] - The average selling price of pigs for New Hope was 14.59 yuan/kg, down 0.75% month-on-month and down 5.38% year-on-year, while Wens Foodstuff Group's average price was 14.68 yuan/kg, down 1.61% month-on-month and down 7.26% year-on-year [1] - Despite the decline in sales, the pig farming sector has been profitable for 12 consecutive months, and price fluctuations in the industry are expected to remain moderate, allowing leading companies to maintain profitability [1][2] Group 2 - As temperatures rise, pork consumption is weak, and the growth rate of pigs slows down, leading to a decrease in both supply and demand, which keeps pig prices stable [2] - The profit from piglet sales has been substantial in the first five months of the year, and there is a slow reduction in pig farming capacity, with the market still having ample supply [2] - The cost of feed has significantly decreased compared to 2023, contributing to sustained profitability in pig farming since April 2024, although profits have noticeably shrunk since May [2][3] Group 3 - The high inventory of breeding sows continues to lead to an oversupply of pigs, keeping prices low and significantly compressing farmers' profits, making cost control essential for survival and growth [3] - Large farming groups benefit from economies of scale, having stronger bargaining power in feed procurement, while small farmers face disadvantages due to limited scale and resources [3] - Analysts suggest that pig prices are unlikely to fluctuate significantly this year, and the industry's profitability will be a key focus, with cost differences being the most effective indicator of companies' profitability [3] Group 4 - New Hope aims to "repair growth" and enhance profitability by focusing on flexible operations, continuous cost reduction, and improving labor efficiency [4] - Wens Foodstuff Group noted a shift in the industry from capital expansion to cost competition, indicating a transition from short-term to long-term competitive strategies [4]