Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Macro factors include China's September LPR remaining unchanged, potential bank deposit - rate cuts in Q4, and various overseas trade policies such as US tariff hikes and South Korea's anti - dumping duties. Supply has been rising since mid - May, inventory has increased significantly, and costs and demand have changed. Technically, the manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is bearish. The market is expected to be weak after the holiday, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Macro**: China's September LPR: 5 - year above at 3.5%, 1 - year at 3%. Guangdong prepared for Typhoon "Hua Jiasha". More banks may cut deposit rates in Q4. Overseas, the US will impose high tariffs on certain products from October 1, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on steel products [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory increased significantly. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons, and hot metal production returned to previous levels. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 80 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 190 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price is 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Before the holiday, funds reduced positions, market sentiment declined, and the sector was weak. After the holiday, prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 26, the silicon - manganese futures contract's open interest decreased by 50,300 lots to 501,000 lots, and the 5 - 1 contract spread increased by 8 points to 46. Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 4,563 to 56,113, and the manganese silicon - ferrosilicon January contract spread decreased by 8 points to 220 [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, Inner Mongolia's silicon - manganese spot price was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 138 yuan/ton, up 56 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Industry**: Manganese silicon inventory increased rapidly, and production declined from its peak. The national 187 - enterprise sample's capacity utilization was 44.18%, down 1.50%. Daily production was 29,490 tons, down 335 tons. Five major steel products' silicon - manganese weekly demand was 122,484 tons, up 0.87%, and national production was 206,430 tons, down 1.12% [25]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the national 63 - enterprise sample's inventory was 233,800 tons, up 34,900 tons. Inner Mongolia decreased by 1,500 tons, Ningxia increased by 30,600 tons, etc. [30]. - **Upstream**: As of September 26, Tianjin Port's South32 South African semi - carbonate lump was 34.3 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2. Ningxia and Inner Mongolia's electricity prices were flat. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons to 427.2 tons. South African manganese ore arrivals decreased by 25%, while Australian, Gabonese, and Ghanaian arrivals increased [34][40]. - **Profit**: On September 26, the northern region's spot production cost was 5,830 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 140 yuan/ton, down 50. The southern region's cost was 6,230 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 530 yuan/ton, down 40 [44]. - **Downstream**: Daily hot metal production was 2.4236 million tons, up 13,400 tons week - on - week and 175,000 tons year - on - year. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 24, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract oscillated, rose in the afternoon and then fell back, closing at 803.5 yuan/ton with a 0.00% increase. Considering the steel mill's resumption rhythm and restocking demand before the National Day holiday, it is expected that the iron ore price may fluctuate strongly in the near future [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review**: On September 24, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract oscillated, rose in the afternoon and then fell back, closing at 803.5 yuan/ton with a 0.00% increase. The spot market showed that on September 24, the main iron ore outer - market quotes were flat compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were mostly flat compared to the previous day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline, and the daily MACD indicator formed a death cross [7][9] - **Future Outlook**: Recently, the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrivals increased. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil in the past four weeks increased by 3.56% compared to the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping time, the future arrivals are expected to further recover, showing a pattern of being low first and then high. On the demand side, last week, the molten iron output, blast furnace start - up rate, and blast furnace capacity utilization rate rebounded again, with obvious demand recovery after the September 3rd restrictions. However, the continuous decline in the profitability of downstream steel enterprises will limit the growth space of demand. In terms of inventory, as the National Day holiday in October approaches, steel mills have started the restocking process, which will support the iron ore demand before the holiday [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - **Anti - Dumping News**: On September 23, South Korea decided to impose temporary anti - dumping duties on carbon steel and alloy steel hot - rolled coils from China and Japan. From September 19, India decided to impose a 5 - year anti - dumping duty on cold - rolled non - oriented electrical steel from China [12] - **Policy News**: Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to make the building materials industry recover and improve profitability from 2025 - 2026, and increase the scale of green building materials and advanced inorganic non - metallic materials industries. The green building materials' operating income is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan in 2026. Five key tasks are deployed, including strengthening industry management, enhancing industrial technological innovation, expanding effective investment, expanding consumer demand, and deepening opening - up and cooperation [12][13] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipments from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volume at main ports, the inventory available days of steel mills' iron ore, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the inventory and dispatch volume of port iron ore, the cost of molten iron in sample steel mills, the start - up rate and capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces and electric furnaces, the daily average molten iron output nationwide, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the inventory of five major steel products in steel mills [15][20][24]