中金量化 | 智策2026：量化年度展望与择时模型系列 15:30-16:00 嘉宾： 薛军丨中国银河证券党委副书记、总裁 尹艳林丨第十四届全国政协委员 单志广丨国家信息中心信息化和产业发展部主任 章俊丨中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长 张迪丨中国银河证券宏观首席分析师 杨超丨中国银河证券策略首席分析师 01 中国银河证券 | 主论坛 - 2026年度策略报告会 9:00-12:00 核心看点： 向新质生产力转型的关键期，人工智能将如何成为2026年核心驱动力？中国银河证券 年度策略会，宏观经济学者与行业专家将揭示哪些投资主线？AI、新能源、量子科技等前沿领域， 哪些机会值得重点关注？这场思想盛宴会否为您解锁"十五五"开局之年的财富密码？ 扫码预约 02 核心看点： 中金量化及ESG团队将权威解读2026年量化策略展望，前瞻布局。同时聚焦成交数据 中的择时信号与期权波动率的实战应用，分享前沿量化择时模型，助力精准把脉市场节奏。 嘉宾： 陈宜筠丨量化及ESG分析师 郑文才丨中金公司量化及ESG分析师 扫码预约 03 瑞银展望2026：世界准备好迎接10亿台机器人了吗？ 16:00-17:00 核心看点： 一 ...

Core Insights - Silicon Treasure Technology (300019) has successfully had its silicone sealant products included in the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's list of "Good House" construction materials for 2025, indicating national-level recognition of its green building material standards [1] Group 1 - The inclusion in the national list provides substantial support for the company to secure orders in government procurement projects related to affordable housing, urban renewal, and public buildings [1] - The company emphasizes that its products play a crucial role in high-end construction and decoration fields, maintaining its position as the leading brand in the construction adhesive industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The renovation and building materials sector experienced a slight increase, closing at 16,425.50 points with a growth rate of 1.00% on November 11, 2023, driven by several stocks in the sector showing significant gains [1] Sector Performance - Several stocks in the renovation and building materials sector saw price increases, with Conch New Materials (000619) closing at 7.15 CNY per share, up by 10.00% - Aoyuan Ceiling (002718) also closed at 29.26 CNY per share, marking a 10.00% increase - Shangpin Home (300616) closed at 14.65 CNY per share, with a growth of 7.09%, ranking third in the sector [1] Declining Stocks - Jingxue Energy-saving (301010) led the decline in the sector, closing at 26.58 CNY per share, down by 6.77% - Gujia Home (603816) closed at 29.91 CNY per share, with a decrease of 3.48%, ranking second in losses - Mona Lisa (002918) closed at 15.37 CNY per share, down by 3.33%, ranking third in the decline [1] Policy and Industry Trends - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has announced plans to deepen reforms in the construction industry, focusing on industrialization, digitalization, and greening as development paths - The reforms aim to transition the construction industry from a traditional extensive model to a refined and intelligent approach, with key measures including the promotion of prefabricated buildings and the application of construction robots in projects - There will be a comprehensive promotion of green building materials, green construction, and green buildings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the acceleration of new growth momentum in China's economy through enhanced fiscal policies, support for innovation, and investment in key industries, while ensuring the stability of employment and market expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - The fiscal policy is increasingly proactive, focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations, while promoting economic recovery [3][4]. - A total of 300 billion yuan in special bonds is allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods, which is expected to stimulate significant retail sales [4][15]. - The central government plans to increase its technology funding to 398.12 billion yuan in 2025, a 10% increase from the previous year, focusing on core technology and strategic industries [5][21]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption - The government aims to enhance domestic demand by boosting consumption and effective investment, with a focus on key sectors and weak links [13][16]. - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with 5.55 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year, completing 42.7% of the annual target [16]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to see a 10.3% increase in industrial investment, driven by government support for technological upgrades [17]. Group 3: Employment and Social Welfare - The central government allocated 667.4 billion yuan for employment support, with 6.95 million new urban jobs created in the first half of the year [27][28]. - Education spending increased by 5.9% to 2.15 trillion yuan, with a focus on improving quality and access to education [29][30]. - Basic public health service funding reached 804.35 billion yuan, enhancing health management and disease prevention efforts [32][33]. Group 4: Risk Management and Financial Stability - The government is implementing measures to mitigate financial risks, including the management of local government debt and the promotion of real estate market stability [7][9]. - A comprehensive approach to fiscal management is being adopted, including reforms in tax systems and budget execution to ensure effective use of resources [7][12]. Group 5: Innovation and Technology - The report highlights the importance of integrating technological innovation with industrial development, with a focus on enhancing research capabilities and supporting key technology projects [20][21]. - Funding for basic research is set to increase by 12.1%, emphasizing the need for original innovation and support for research institutions [21][22]. Group 6: Environmental and Social Development - The government is committed to ecological protection and sustainable development, with significant funding allocated for pollution control and ecosystem restoration [38][39]. - Social welfare programs are being expanded, with increased support for vulnerable populations and efforts to improve living standards [34][35].

Core Insights - The special mortar industry includes over 50 varieties, with mainstream categories being bonding mortar, waterproof mortar, and plastering mortar, accounting for 25% of the total demand for commercial mortar [2][3] Industry Overview - The special mortar industry is categorized into various types, including thermal insulation mortar, waterproof mortar, tile adhesive, putty, self-leveling mortar, and grouting material, each with unique characteristics and applications [3] - The production capacity of the premixed mortar industry in China has reached 300 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 12.69% from 2017 to 2024, making it the largest premixed mortar market globally [5] Policy Environment - The government has implemented a series of policies to promote green building materials and special mortar applications, creating a favorable policy environment for the industry [4][7] - Key policies include promoting green construction through government procurement and establishing a waste recycling system to enhance resource utilization efficiency [4] Market Dynamics - The production of special mortar has seen a growth rate of around 24% from 2017 to 2024, reaching a total output of 14 million tons, driven by both policy support and market demand [7] - The special mortar industry is characterized by high functional attributes and added value, with the formulation reflecting the R&D capabilities of companies, which is crucial for product competitiveness [7][9] Research and Analysis - Comprehensive analysis of the special mortar industry includes market capacity, industry chain, operational characteristics, profitability, and business models using various research methodologies [9] - The industry is expected to continue evolving with a focus on technological advancements and sustainable practices, aligning with national goals for ecological civilization [4][9]

Core Viewpoint - The renovation and building materials sector experienced a slight increase, closing at 15,281.49 points with a growth rate of 1.16% on October 20 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Several renovation and building materials stocks saw price increases, with Filinger leading at 42.70 CNY per share, up by 5.93% [1] - Kairun shares closed at 12.79 CNY, marking a 5.44% increase, ranking second in the sector [1] - Tubao shares ended at 12.70 CNY, with a rise of 5.31%, placing third among renovation and building materials stocks [1] - Conversely, *ST Yazhen led the decline with a closing price of 38.79 CNY, down by 5.00% [1] - Jingxue Energy closed at 20.89 CNY, down by 1.92%, ranking second in losses [1] - Beijing Lier shares ended at 8.72 CNY, with a decrease of 1.80%, ranking third in the decline [1] Group 2: Industry Reform - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has committed to deepening reforms in the construction industry, focusing on industrialization, digitalization, and greening as development paths [1] - The reform aims to transition the construction industry from a traditional extensive model to a refined and intelligent approach, with key initiatives including the promotion of prefabricated buildings and the application of construction robots [1] - The ultimate goal of these reforms is to achieve high-quality development across the industry, enhancing the quality, efficiency, and sustainability of "Chinese construction" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongguan Securities suggests that starting from 2025, the "anti-involution" policy will gradually improve the profitability of certain consumer building materials companies through price increases, while urban renewal policies will drive demand in the building materials market [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The domestic real estate market has undergone significant adjustments, leading to a short-term imbalance in supply and demand in the consumer building materials industry due to insufficient consumption momentum and a surge in production capacity [1] - The "anti-involution" consensus is ending homogeneous competition, accelerating the exit of backward production capacity, and top enterprises are enhancing their comprehensive competitiveness, indicating a potential for high-quality growth in the industry [1][5] - The building decoration materials market in China is expected to open a new round of growth opportunities driven by urban renewal, old community renovations, and the rise of green building materials and smart home solutions [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Rabbit Baby (兔宝宝) achieved revenue of 3.634 billion yuan and a net profit of 268 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.71% and 1.35% respectively [1] - The company has expanded its retail channels significantly, with 4,673 decoration materials stores by mid-2025, including 2,192 decorative material stores and 2,481 town stores, with over 3,000 stores capable of providing "board customization" services [2] - Rabbit Baby's custom home retail business is focused on high-quality development, with a year-on-year sales increase of 46.5% in the home decoration channel in the first half of 2025, and a total of 1,808 custom home stores [4] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Rabbit Baby is enhancing its offline retail presence by expanding its town network and upgrading stores, while also pushing for a "board + customization" model to address customer pain points [2] - The company collaborates with over 20,000 furniture manufacturers and has established a home decoration operation company to offer various cooperation models to top home decoration enterprises [3] - The company is committed to sustainable practices and has received high ESG ratings, positioning itself as a leader in the decoration materials industry [4]

Core Insights - The "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Building Materials Industry (2025-2026)" aims to promote the stable operation and structural optimization of the building materials industry, accelerating high-quality development [1] Group 1: Growth Targets and Industry Management - The plan sets a target for the green building materials industry to exceed 300 billion yuan in revenue by 2026, with an expected revenue of 210 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 10% [2] - The first measure emphasizes strengthening industry management to promote the survival of the fittest, addressing the structural contradictions in supply and demand that have affected stable development [2][4] - The plan includes strict capacity control for cement and glass production, aiming to align actual capacity with registered capacity and enhance the dynamic adjustment capability of supply and demand [2][4] Group 2: Traditional and Emerging Industries - The plan promotes the green low-carbon transformation and digitalization of traditional building materials industries to stabilize the growth foundation [3] - It also aims to cultivate advanced inorganic non-metallic materials and specialty mineral resources, enhancing new growth momentum for the industry [3] - The adjustment of the building materials industry structure and demand upgrades will create new market opportunities, particularly in industrial sectors and urban renewal projects [3] Group 3: Challenges and Policy Support - The building materials industry has faced significant growth pressures, with economic benefits declining from 2022 to 2024, particularly in the cement and flat glass sectors [4][5] - The plan prohibits the addition of new cement clinker and flat glass capacity, requiring capacity replacement plans for new and renovated projects to control production and optimize industry structure [4][6] - The cement industry is entering a new adjustment cycle, with a need for capacity replacement to align actual production with registered capacity, promoting high-quality development [5][6] Group 4: Glass Industry and Technological Innovation - The glass industry faces challenges such as unreasonable capacity structure and fluctuating market demand, particularly affected by the real estate market downturn [7] - The plan outlines pathways for stable growth in the glass industry, encouraging technological upgrades and the development of high-performance glass products to enhance market competitiveness [7] - Companies are urged to explore new profit growth points and expand into overseas markets while consolidating their domestic market presence [7][8] Group 5: Implementation and Future Directions - China National Building Material Group is committed to implementing capacity control policies and has completed the exit of over 200 inefficient production lines during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [8] - The group aims to transform its scale advantage into quality and efficiency advantages, focusing on new materials and diversified growth strategies [8] - The company plans to fully implement the directives of the "Work Plan" to create a comprehensive industry matrix of inorganic, organic, and composite materials [8]

Core Viewpoint - Marco Polo Holdings Co., Ltd. is set to issue 119.492 million shares at a price of 13.75 yuan per share, resulting in a diluted static P/E ratio of 14.27, which is significantly lower than the industry average of 32.20 and 27.69 for comparable companies, indicating reasonable pricing for the issuance [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Marco Polo owns two major brands, "Marco Polo Tiles" and "Weimei L&D Ceramics," which have a strong reputation both domestically and internationally [3] - The brand value of "Marco Polo Tiles" has ranked first in the building ceramics industry for 13 consecutive years, while "Weimei L&D Ceramics" ranks sixth [3] Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The company has achieved significant product innovation with core technologies such as curved rock slabs, 3mm SPT intelligent polished bright rock slabs, and AI random infinite patterns, which enhance product functionality and market appeal [4] - Marco Polo has implemented green manufacturing practices, utilizing tailings and low-temperature fast firing technologies to achieve a fully green and low-carbon production process [7] Group 3: Market Trends and Policies - The "Green Building Materials" policy aims to boost the green building materials market, with projected revenues exceeding 300 billion yuan by 2026, encouraging a shift from traditional materials to green alternatives [6][10] - The policy also supports the integration of green materials into consumer goods replacement programs, enhancing the market for eco-friendly products [6][10] Group 4: Competitive Positioning - Marco Polo is well-positioned to capitalize on the green building materials trend, having established a competitive edge through early adoption of green production practices [7] - The company has been recognized with national "Green Factory" titles for several of its subsidiaries, reinforcing its commitment to sustainable practices [7] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The building ceramics industry is expected to undergo a structural transformation, with increased concentration and a shift towards green and value-added products [14] - Smaller companies lacking green technology may exit the market, allowing leading firms like Marco Polo to capture greater market share and enhance profitability [14] Group 6: Sales and Distribution Strategy - Marco Polo has over 8,000 sales terminals, which supports the absorption of new production capacity and ensures stable revenue growth [13] - The company is actively collaborating with large home decoration enterprises to expand its market presence and adapt to changing consumer preferences [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is pushing for a transformation in the construction industry towards industrialization, digitalization, and greening, aiming for high-quality development and sustainability in "Chinese construction" [1] Industry Policy and Trends - The reform focuses on promoting prefabricated buildings, accelerating the application of construction robots, and widely promoting green building materials and practices [1] - The goal is to enhance the quality, efficiency, and sustainability of the construction industry, creating new growth opportunities in green materials and smart construction sectors [1] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the consumer building materials sector include: - Sanke Tree (channel penetration, retail expansion) - Dongfang Yuhong (waterproof leader, optimized operational structure) - Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations, significant retail business) - Jianlang Hardware [1] - Beneficiary companies include: - Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader, diversified expansion in coatings and waterproof sectors) [1] - Cement sector beneficiaries include: - Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Shangfeng Cement, as the industry aims to control cement clinker capacity and improve energy efficiency [1] Market Performance - The building materials index rose by 2.66% in the week of October 6-10, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points [2] - Over the past year, the building materials index increased by 21.26%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 4.71 percentage points [2] Price Trends - As of October 10, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement was 287.21 RMB/ton, down 0.26% month-on-month [3] - The average price of float glass was 1301.65 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 0.72% [3] - Prices for various fiberglass products ranged from 3400 to 6500 RMB/ton, depending on the type [4] Raw Material Prices - As of October 10, 2025, crude oil prices were 65.05 USD/barrel, down 3.59% week-on-week [4] - Asphalt prices remained stable at 4570 RMB/ton, while acrylic acid and titanium dioxide prices saw declines [4]